OnMedeatag:mankabros.com,2009-07-29:/onmedea//202010-03-05T20:01:09ZChopping Up Truth In Media Since 2009Movable Type Publishing Platform 4.0R.I.P. Jerry Seinfeld's Influencetag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5162010-03-05T18:06:01Z2010-03-05T20:01:09ZIt's the end of an era. When "Seinfeld" went off the air in 1998 (!!) there was no bigger star in television who wielded more influence than Jerry Seinfeld. Senior creative executives from every major studio were falling all over themselves to get the next Seinfeld project.
But... Jerry decided to take his $100 million (give or take a few million) and went off to enjoy his life. He did the occasional stand-up event at Caesar's Palace; the occasional guest spot on a TV series or talk show to give his friends a spike in their ratings; voiced a cartoon bee, etc.
Up until last week, everyone just assumed that Jerry Seinfeld was still as big as he ever was.
Then something strange happened this week: Jerry Seinfeld became irrelevant.
After spending millions of dollars for promotional time during the Vancouver Olympics for Jerry Seinfeld's "The Marriage Ref", NBC was expecting a really big number.
They even cut the Closing Ceremonies short (to most of the country's shock and anger) just to show the premiere of "The Marriage Ref". And, to be fair, they got a strong number (though, I suspect, with that lead in, NBC could have put on a rerun of "Silver Spoons" and it also would have gotten a big number).
With that in mind, last night "The Marriage Ref" settled into its Thursday night 10pm time slot and promptly lost half of its audience. Don't get me wrong, these aren't terrible numbers like Melrose Place or The Beautiful Life on The CW or Severed Fingers on MBS, but not the numbers you want and expect if you have JERRY SEINFELD as your selling point. You can get those kinds of numbers with Guy Fieri.
And if the ratings continue to fall, it's will be increasingly hard for Jerry to recruit big name celebrities to be on the panel (and once you get down to the Phyllis Diller, Jamie Farr level - your show may be in trouble).
There was a time when Jerry Seinfeld could do anything he wanted. But now, like, say, Lucille Ball in 1986, fewer studios will be returning his calls and signing over a blank check.
But, let me just say this... he absolutely killed on David Letterman the other night. He's still one of the great stand ups in history and proved that with one of the tightest six minutes you'll ever see. He's just no longer the most important person in the room.
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Leno The Kingtag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5152010-03-02T16:51:59Z2010-03-02T17:23:08ZWell, that didn't take long. There will be lots of "I'm With Coco" and David Letterman supporters that will say "It was expected...", "Everyone was just curious about the switch...", "Jay has all those Olympians on the show..."
Whatever.
I write this not as a Jay Leno fan (far from it) - but as a practical person who looks at the numbers. As I said when there was a debate over whether NBC should keep Conan or Jay... of all the late night hosts on all the networks, Jay Leno is simply the one that more people want to watch. I'm not talking about "quality" or "educated" people here. I'm talking about more PEOPLE.
In his first night back in the 11:35pm time slot, Jay Leno destroyed the competition. The Tonight Show with Jay Leno got a 5.7/14 share; David Letterman (3.0/8 share); Nightline/Jimmy Kimmell Live (1.8/6 share). Tonight, Jay has Sarah Palin and Shaun White on the show. Who do you think will win?
I think Conanmay want to avoid the direct competition and forget about Fox. I'm sure Fox executives are thinking the same thing today.
[Note to Jeff Zucker: These results are not because of your brilliance, they are in spite of your ignorance. The Olympics will lose over $200 million for your network and you won't make that up with "The Marriage Ref" or "Parenthood" ratings. You will be fired.]
Jill Kennedy - OnMedea ]]>
Jay Leno and Sarah Palintag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5122010-02-22T23:28:32Z2010-02-23T00:06:02ZLove him or hate him, there is a reason Jay Leno has been #1 and will soon be #1 again in the late night wars.
He will book anyone necessary to get ratings - as evidenced by the top guest on his second night back - Ms. Sarah Palin.
Add to the mix Shaun White, Lindsey Vonn, Apolo Ohno, Brad Paisley, the cast of Jersey Shore and I think it's game over for Dave as soon as Jay returns. The Letterman vs. Leno battle will last all but one week.
So what have we learned from this whole debacle? As long as there are publicists and stars who need publicity, the past is meaningless. Hollywood is a "what-have-you-done-for-me-lately" town.
And what will Jay do for these media hungry whores stars? Deliver ratings that Conan O'Brien, Jimmy Kimmel or David Letterman can't (unless Dave could book Sarah Palin again).
P.S. - To Jeff Immelt - please fire Jeff Zucker before "The Tonight Show" is #1 again. We all know he'll be trying to take the credit and that will make me physically ill.
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UPDATE: Jeff Zucker Still Has A Jobtag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5112010-02-22T19:01:47Z2010-02-22T20:01:47ZThe Billion Dollar Question is - WHY?
The absolutely horrendous Olympic coverage which not only sucks but will LOSE millions of dollars. (The latest horrible decision was to air the TAPE-DELAYED2-man Bobsled coverage on NBC over one of the best LIVE Olympic hockey games in years - USA vs. Canada. I'm sure JZ would say it was a brilliant move on his part to force people to find MSNBC on their televisions.)
... at this point, it's a matter of credibility. And he has none.
Imagine Jeff Zucker standing in front of a group of Wall Street investor analysts with his PowerPoint slides and telling them "This is the future of television..." "This is the direction Comcast/NBC needs to go..." "Here are my ideas on how to turn things around..." etc.
Seriously, who the hell would believe he has the answers? And why does he even get the chance to give the answers. NBC was once great. All the missteps really started to snowball AFTER he become Chairman & CEO. He is into his fourth year and has thus far proven nothing to nobody.
Basta. Enough.
However, in an effort to make my entries a little more positive, I'm going to attempt to end them all on an upbeat note. So... that said... I do like the bulky ski resort sweaters Jeff Zucker has been wearing as he talks up NBC's suck ass Olympic coverage on CNBC.
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Can Elin Woods Learn From Conan O'Brien?tag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5102010-02-18T21:10:40Z2010-02-22T23:27:55ZAs Tiger Woods slowly reemerges from hiding and Team-Tiger Damage Control goes full throttle, there is an interesting parallel to be made between the Tiger/Elin Woods drama and the NBC/Conan O'Brien drama (which cost all of us a few months...As Tiger Woods slowly reemerges from hiding and Team-Tiger Damage Control goes full throttle, there is an interesting parallel to be made between the Tiger/Elin Woods drama and the NBC/Conan O'Brien drama (which cost all of us a few months out of our lives).
Imagine Conan and Elin on one side and Tiger, Jay Leno, Jeff Zucker and NBC and on the other.
The parallel begins with a couple of a wide-eyed youths - dreaming of the big time.
Elin: Is a nanny for a Swedish golf pro and hangs around a lot of single golfers on tour but really only imagines herself with one man... the crown jewel of golfers... Tiger Woods.
Conan:Jay Leno retires from "The Tonight Show" and prepares to launch an ill-conceived prime time talk show - "The Jay Leno Show". Conan, believing NBC's promise, happily takes over the reigns of "The Tonight Show" and looks forward to a long and prosperous run as host.
Elin: Tiger Woods retires from his crazy single days and prepares for an ill-conceived life of domestic bliss. Elin, believing Tiger, happily sets up a life of wealth and prosperity (and has two children to complete the ideal picture).
Conan: Jay Leno's ratings crash after one week on the air. Jeff Zucker at NBC begins to question the decision to move Jay to prime time especially considering Conan O'Brien's horrible ratings.
Elin: Tiger Woodscrashes a Cadillac Escalade into a tree after Elin Woods decides to move a few of his teeth from the front to the back of his mouth with a 7 iron.
Conan: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Conan decides to leave NBC with $45 million.
Elin: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Elin decides to...??????
---------------------------------------------------------- As for the future? Here's my guess:
Conan: Having finalized the divorce from NBC, agrees to a deal with Fox and hosts the low-rated (and soon to be canceled) "Conan O'Brien Late Night Buffet".
Elin: After finalizing the divorce from Tiger, agrees to go on a disastrous first date with Rory Sabbatini (or some other less successful golfer that wishes he was Tiger Woods). She eventually marries Spencerfrom "The Hills" who happily dumps Heidi Montag for her.
Conan couldn't in good conscious stay at NBC (even though his dream life went up in flames) and you can't stay with Tiger (even though your dream life has gone up in flames). Take the money and run to that house in Sweden. You will have a better future.
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Is Barry Diller Getting Tired?tag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5092010-02-10T17:55:40Z2010-02-10T20:36:29ZFrom where I sit at my breakfast nook in La Canada, California, 3,000 miles from IAC's headquarters in New York, Barry Diller seems to be getting tired of it all.
Yesterday, when I listened to IAC's earnings call, I got the sense that Mr. Diller could care less about what he's doing these days. His answers were short and he seemed generally distracted and uninterested.
When IAC was formed a few years ago, it was all very exciting. A promising collection of digital assets that would destroy old media. Mr. Diller was on the cutting-edge of this brave new media world, leaving his dinosaur studio pals in the dust with their "movies" and "television shows".
All this while old media is staging a huge comeback and grabbing all the headlines: "'Avatar' breaks worldwide box office record.""Super Bowl XLIV is the most-watched television event ever."
Who knows? Maybe he really enjoys talking business with Ricky Van Veen.
In my opinion, it's time for Mr. Diller to jump in the car with an Apple iPad and drive across the country again.
Jill Kennedy - OnMedea ]]>
Ben Hur Silvermantag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5062010-02-02T22:15:05Z2010-02-02T23:21:00ZBen Silverman is making this way too easy.
IAC has released the logo for Ben Silverman's world-changing, earth-shattering, ground-breaking new venture - Electus.
In my opinion, it is the perfect logo for the company. Everything you need to know about Electus and its future success is represented in the design of that logo. Accompanying the logo (on the IAC website - Electus.com is... still to come) is a new description of the company. (Could we be getting close to launch?): "Led by founder Ben Silverman, Electusis a next generation studio
enabling premium content creators to engage with advertising and
technology partners at the inception of the creative process and
partner on the finished product across a global and multi-platform
distribution model.
"Electus is defining an innovative advertising
component, which will challenge the traditional entertainment silos,
allowing content creators and branding partners to develop premium
programs and reach audiences like never before. The content will be
distributed globally through the Electus international distribution arm
as well as across a multitude of analog and digital platforms."
Because nothing says "Next Generation" like a logo with A HORSE AND BUGGY ON IT!
P.S. - Ben Silverman is the upcoming keynote speaker at MIPTV this year. Because he is busy changing the world, I have taken the liberty of penning his speech for him.
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"Hesher" Has 22 Producerstag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5052010-01-29T18:37:17Z2010-01-29T19:42:28ZSuper Bowl in Miami, 22 players are absolutely necessary to play the game. Apparently, 22 producers are absolutely necessary to make "Hesher" - an independent film premiering at the Sundance Film Festival (and just picked up for distribution by Newmarket) starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Natalie Portman.
There's a fixed joke in Hollywood that you can't throw a rock without hitting a screenwriter. It seems, for those of us inclined to throw rocks, you can't throw a rock at Sundance without hitting an independent film producer.
What happens if, by some chance, "Hesher" gets nominated for an Academy Award next year. Only three producers are allowed on the ballot and actually receive the award. What happens to the other 19 and what is the process for weeding it down to three? Wouldn't that be a great reality show?
And "Hesher" is not an isolated case. It appears to be a trend.
Here are three films that were at the Sundance Film Festival and the number of Producers that were necessary to produce them.
Hesher (22 Producers - including "Executive" and "Co"-Producers)
Lucy Cooper
Matthew Weaver
Scott Prisand
Natalie Portman
Spencer Susser
Johnny Lin
Win Sheridan
Jonathan Weisgal
Wayne Chang
Aleen Keshishian
Annette Savitch
Scot Armstrong
Ravi Nandan
Aaron Dowing
Rob Ortiz
Scott Kluge
Jeff Davis
Jay Rifkin
Ari Ackerman
Jay Franks
Happy Walters
Gina Kirkpatrick
The Kids Are All Right (starring Julianne Moore, Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo - 13 Producers)
Gary Gilbert
Jeffrey Levy-Hinte
Celine Rattray
Jordan Horowitz
Daniela Taplin Lundberg
Steven Saxton
Ron Stein
Christy Cashman
Anne O'Shea
Riva Marker
Andrew Sawyer
Neil Katz
J. Todd Harris
The Romantics (starring Katie Holmes and Josh Duhamel - 11 Producers)
Daniela Taplin Lundberg
Jennifer Todd
Suzanne Todd
Michael Benaroya
Taylor Kephart
Galt Niederhoffer
Katie Holmes
Riva Marker
Celine Rattray
Pamela Hirsch
Ron Stein
Look, I'm sure all these people played a vital role in their respective films' journey to the screen... or not (only those on the production really know what's going on here). But a Producer credit used to be highly-coveted and very difficult to get - in most cases after years of paying dues and working up the cinematic ladder.
Today, it seems, the credit is handed out like film festival swag. Now, when I meet someone who says they are a producer on an independent film, I am inclined to say "Oh, really, what, did you deliver the food?"
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Ben Silverman's MIPTV Keynote Addresstag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5032010-01-26T23:17:20Z2010-01-27T06:12:51ZIt recently came to my attention that Ben Silverman was asked to give a keynote address at this year's MIPTV Conference in Cannes, France on April 13, 2010. Realizing that Ben is a very busy man (what with single-handedly changing the media landscape... again), I have taken the liberty of drafting his keynote address for him.
Based on everything I know about him through interviews and presentations, etc., I have attempted to write the speech in a style he would find the most comfortable. ----------------------- Ben Silverman - Founder and CEO of the new multimedia company Electus - a groundbreaking partnership with media mogul Barry Diller's leading interactive company IAC.
(As the lights dim, a low hum emits from somewhere, smoke machines fill the stage with a heavy mist. A lightning bolt appears to strike the back of the stage followed by a thunderclap - leaving the silhouette of... A MAN.)
BOOMING VOICE OVER: Since the dawn of time, only one man has had the balls to change the world. To change the way we think, we feel, we speak. To change the way we laugh, the way we cry. The guts to change 10pm programming on broadcast networks. His name... is Ben.
(A pin spotlight pulls out to reveal BEN SILVERMAN in all his glory - sunglasses, suit that he probably slept in with the tie loosened - unshaven. He points to the sky as another lightning bolt shoots out of his finger. "Rock You Like A Hurricane" by The Scorpions screams from the speakers as he floats magically toward the podium on a hydraulic saucer.)
All is silent (except, I imagine, for the thunderous applause from the lucky MIPTV crowd).
Ben Silverman: Yeah... all right... good morning Cannes. Hell of a town you got here. I don't know what kind of poison you serve in your bars, but you fuckers got me drunk!
Ben Silverman: Before I get started, how about a shout out for my little pissant buddy over there, Notional Founder and CEO Ricky Van Veen!
(There is a smattering of applause and bunch of "who the fuck is that" looks throughout the crowd.) Ben Silverman: All right, all right... Let's get going. It's really great to be here at the MIPTV conference. What the hell does 'MIP' mean anyway? Nobody seems to know.
Ricky Van Veen: Damn straight on that one, cat daddy! Ben Silverman: Can it, Ricky.
Ricky Van Veen: I get it "Cannes"! That's where we are! Freakin' hilarious, boss.
Ben Silverman: Shut the fuck up, Ricky.
Ricky Van Veen: Sorry, daddy-o.
Ben Silverman: (holding up a cocktail) And I said more vodka than tomato juice, bitch.
Ricky Van Veen: Sorry bout dat.
(Ricky comes on stage and takes Ben's drink to freshen it up.)
Ben Silverman: Anyway... Now we're cruising. You guys (and ladies) are all International Television folk, right? Excellent. How's business? It's great to see the Polish TV delegation out there.
(There is applause from a delegation of Polish Television Executives.)
Ben Silverman: The last I heard from you guys in Poland, you were dealing with the problems of screen doors on your submarines, right? And I heard your library was closed because someone stole THE BOOK! Am I right? Anway, I see you guys have television now. Welcome to the 20th century! Next stop, the internet!
(A screen behind Ben descends from the ceiling revealing his PowerPoint presentation. The light envelops him in a Christ-like glow. The first slide is Ben Silverman's professional timeline.)
Ben Silverman: After I created "The Office" in the UK and decided to bring it to America, I really needed a new challenge. So I told NBC Universal Chairman Jeff Zucker I wanted to be the head of NBC. He said I was overqualified for the job and would be better suited to be his boss... but I convinced him that I would prefer to run NBCfor a whileand see how that goes first.
Ben Silverman: When Jeff told me he wanted to move Jay Leno to 10pm and cancel all the dramas in that time slot, I said he was crazy. "It will never work", I said. I predicted at the time The Jay Leno Show would last approximately four months before the affiliates would complain about having a crappy lead-in. But Jeff Zucker was insistent. So he did it. He moved Jay to 10pm... and I quit.
(Another slide - giant Electus logo... a smaller IAC logo barely noticeable.)
Ben Silverman: Having conquered the broadcast network world, I decided the one space where every content producer was having trouble was the online world. It was a challenge I couldn't refuse. The person who figures out how to make money with content on the internet will be made King! Everyone is losing shitloads of money right now. "It's a space that can't be tamed, Ben." "Please, Ben, don't try it." Everyone was being a whiny little bitch to me, begging me not to go into New Media. When Barry Diller pleaded with me to take $100 million and start Electus, I told him it wouldn't work. "It's throwing good money down the toilet", I said. But he insisted.
(Another slide - Ben Silverman holding a mini-dv camcorder.)
Ben Silverman: I just wanted to have a little mini-dv camcorder and some really good out of work writers looking for a break and I wanted to create a low-cost, high-quality content site. It's the only model that works. But Mr. Diller, being used to high-cost, low-quality content, insisted that I take the money. So I did. And, today, I'm happy to say, there is still some money left.
(Slight applause.)
Ben Silverman: I will now take your questions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note to Ben, just copy and paste the text into Word, print it out, and you have your speech.
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CBS Films - R.I.P.tag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5022010-01-25T17:59:08Z2010-01-25T23:26:36ZI'm actually surprised there isn't more inside media coverage of the disastrous debut of CBS Films' first release - "Extraordinary Measures" starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser ($6.0 Million opening weekend from over 2,500 theaters - finishing 8th behind "Alvin...I'm actually surprised there isn't more inside media coverage of the disastrous debut of CBS Films' first release - "Extraordinary Measures" starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser ($6.0 Million opening weekend from over 2,500 theaters - finishing 8th behind "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel" in its 5th week).
I realize the Jay/Dave/Conan/Jeff Zucker drama is a much sexier story but CBS Films' failure is another example of the cocksure executive that believes he can do no wrong.
I'm assuming there will be two maybe three more failed releases in 2010 and then a decision to "refocus CBS' energies on our booming cable network distribution platforms and new media" (translation: the end of CBS Films).
The R.I.P. tombstone above is generous in giving CBS Films a four year lifespan (2007-2010) considering the first release wasn't until this past weekend - but I think three years of staffing up and development does count as being in business.
Or... my personal dream plan, somehow have CBS either acquire or wrest away Paramount from Viacom. News Corporation buys the cable channels from Viacom (assets they sorely need). Viacom shuts down thus getting us one step closer to saying bye-bye to Sumner Redstone forever.
Regardless of what happens, CBS' old media experiment is not going to make it. But Les Moonves can take solace in the fact that a very exciting Super Bowl is coming to CBS and he still runs one of the top two broadcast networks in the country.
There was a time when that would have been enough for one man.
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Meredith Whitney Is Wrong - Part 2tag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5012010-01-22T22:22:01Z2010-01-23T03:18:11ZPeople really need to stop listening to this woman. I said it back in November when she made her crazy comments then, and I say it now.
Even though I know she would love to take credit for the Wall Street panic this week, nothing could be further from the truth.
And then, today, Ms. Whitney throws gasoline onto the fire by saying President Obama's proposed banking regulations will probably become law and "dramatically" reduce bank profits.
What? What shit is Meredith Whitney smoking to think that this bill will pass? I can even imagine President Obama and Paul Volcker secretly saying - 'We'll take a tough stand on the banks, but no way in hell does this pass.'
First of all, there is no chance this bill gets to the Congress before the mid-term elections in November and (thanks to the Supreme Court decision yesterday) with all the new money that corporations (including big banks) can spend on candidates, I suspect there will be a different make-up of the House and Senate by the time this bill does come up for a vote. And it will, most likely, be defeated - or watered down to a point that it really has no effect.
So, what is the point of Meredith Whitney speaking out with such bravado about how bad things are? Perhaps she is shorting everything in her portfolio and has discovered that she can move the markets with her statements. Perhaps she's just a downer of a person and needs some joy in her life.
I don't know - but it disturbs me whenever she talks.
Personally, I think President Obama was wrong to come out with such a strong statement against banks on the day Goldman Sachs reported such strong earnings. I think, in general, negativity about the economy should be released only in the Summer when people aren't so gloomy and can handle bad news better.
Obviously, that can't happen. And we shouldn't "put lipstick on a pig", as they say, if things are getting worse out there.
I just don't believe things are getting worse. I don't believe Meredith Whitney thinks things are getting worse, but, for whatever reason, she wants you to believe they are.
Jill Kennedy - OnMedea ]]>
CBS Films' Big Testtag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.5002010-01-22T17:30:25Z2010-01-22T20:29:36ZCBS Films - that scrappy upstart with the name that screams 'OLD MEDIA' ("Films", really? Can you even buy film stock anymore? The world is going digital, CBS) - hits the ground running today with its first release, "Extraordinary Measures"starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser.
Most start-up production companies don't have Harrison Ford in their first movie. Most start-up production companies have the guy or girl that's holding the boom pole also act in a major role and provide their own food and wardrobe. But most start-up production companies aren't called "CBS FILMS".
Why is there a CBS Films? It seems that Viacom (before Sumner Redstone's idiotic decision to split the company in half - thus creating this problem in the first place) has a very nice movie production company called Paramount Pictures. They also made a couple of Harrison Ford movies. I remember he played a guy named Indiana Jones for them.
You see, I think it's ridiculous CBS Films had to be formed. It's not going to last (sorry, Les). New movie companies just don't make it - even backed by a large media company like CBS. Yes, go ahead and scream all you want about Summit Entertainment and their success - but after they release two more teen-angst vampire movies - they're done.
I understand Les Moonves' desire to run a completely vertical entertainment conglomerate. But it's no longer 1995. The media landscape has changed. The glorious gatekeeper days are over. Ask Harvey Weinstein how hard it is to build an empire from scratch (but you may have to buy him lunch to ask that question. Dude is totally broke).
Even though "Extraordinary Measures" looks like the kind of movie that
would give me a really good cry on a Saturday night at home - WHILE
WATCHING THE HALLMARK CHANNEL - I'm sort of rooting against this one to
succeed.
Then I want Viacom and Sumner Redstone to go away... forever. (I realize Sumner will still be Chairman of CBS - but Chairman can be overthrown - ask Steve Case - even if it's an old coot that's never going to die.)
So, good luck CBS Films. It's a tall mountain to climb. I'm thinking "Extraordinary Measures" will pull down between $10-15 million this weekend. Whether that is good enough to call the first release a success... we'll just have to find out. Less than $10 million and there will be quite a few worried CBS Films execs on Monday morning.
Jill Kennedy - OnMedea
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Letterman vs. Lenotag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.4992010-01-21T17:16:25Z2010-01-21T18:55:46ZConan exit deal is done - probably the largest payout in television history for someone averaging a 2.5 rating. It is presumed he will go to Fox and get a 2.0 rating at 11:00 (my guess is reruns of The Simpsonson local affiliates do better than that).
So, with apologies to Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, George Lopez, Charlie Rose, etc., it comes down, once again, to Letterman vs. Leno.
Who will win the ratings battle (long-term) once they resume head-to-head competition March 1, 2010?
It's very simple: Jay Leno wins - without a doubt.
Here's why:
DEMOGRAPHICS: Late night talk show viewers are not the Taco-Bell-eating slacker college students that most of these hosts think they're 'in touch with'. That demo is watching The Daily Show, Colbert, Adult Swim or they're online or playing video games (maybe they're not consuming any media and are out pounding drinks and, God willing, conversing with the opposite sex). So, older viewers are watching Jay and Dave - and older viewers prefer Jay. It's warm and safe television with Headlines and Jaywalking. Dave is 'too edgy' for older America, even in his advanced years.
VACATION: Jay is notorious for working 46-48 weeks a year. Dave works... less than that. Even if Dave wins the first few weeks after Jay returns in March (as expected), Jay will pick up viewers once Dave goes on his first long vacation.
WORK ETHIC: While I am not doubting that Dave works very hard to put on his show four nights a week, Jay is indefatigable. He always seems to be out with the public, doing stand-up, corporate events, car shows... almost anything the network asks him to do. Jay has a high visibility factor that Dave... doesn't have. (Not that you need that to succeed - Johnny Carson was a painfully shy recluse and did just fine.) However, when you're trying to win back the hearts and minds of your viewers, being visible with "your public" can go a long way.
HISTORY: Jay Leno has been a consistent ratings winner for 17 years. Yes, bad press and public sentiment has damaged that but most of Jay's fans could care less about 'The Tonight Show' debacle (though, I think everyone would love to see Jeff Zucker get fired).
Finally, Jay spent 20 years in comedy clubs across the country before getting 'The Tonight Show' and he cut his teeth in that ruthless, back-stabbing world. If he survived the shit that went on in those clubs, he can survive almost anything.
Dave did quite a bit of stand-up in the 1970s, yes, but never really immersed himself into that world. Being a great comic was not on his radar. He has always been perceived (as he wished) as a TV guy.
Jay is a comic first and a TV guy next - which is why his fans keep watching - they simply want to hear jokes on 'The Tonight Show' told by a comic and not just a "funny person" doing bits.
P.S. - Where were all these new Conan fans when he really needed them - over the summer when he started hosting The Tonight Show? If he had the ratings then that he has now - there is no controversy. Jay would be out and Conan would be in. ]]>
The Human Target - Internet Advertising Gone Wrongtag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.4972010-01-21T00:00:40Z2010-01-21T00:37:19ZA couple of moments ago, I went to AOL.com to see what fresh content they had put up today and was greeted with a heartbreaking headline about four missing American college students in Haiti who were on a humanitarian mission...AOL.com to see what fresh content they had put up today and was greeted with a heartbreaking headline about four missing American college students in Haiti who were on a humanitarian mission when the earthquake struck last week.
Then, just as I was going to click-through to read about the parents' anguished search for their children... The Human Target - Premiering On Fox - burst through the story headline with digital flames and bullet holes.
Call me crazy, and I realize it's hard to pick and chose which stories get the full animated advertising treatment, but this seems a little inappropriate to me.
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Jay Leno and NBC: Damage Control Beginstag:mankabros.com,2010:/onmedea//20.4942010-01-19T17:35:25Z2010-01-19T18:28:43Z
Conan is gone. Jay is back at 11:35. What's next? Damage control.
Over the next few weeks, we can expect to see NBC Universal's 'A Team' of publicists begin the seemingly impossible task of resuscitating the images of Jay Leno, The Tonight Show and NBC.
The Winter Olympics couldn't have come at a better time to provide a necessary distraction - and it allows NBC Universal's corporate publicists an extra two weeks to rebuild NBC's shattered image.
So, here's what needs to be done:
Step 1: Jeff Zucker must be fired. Regardless of what really happened behind the scenes, his name is synonymous with the total failure of NBC and it is perceived by the public that he is the main reason the Conan/Jay issue became such a mess. The fact that he actually believed the best way to handle the situation was to attack Conan O'Brien illustrates his complete inability to manage a crisis.
Step 2:Provide tons of food aid to Haitian earthquake victims (with the optional The Tonight Show With Jay Leno branding on each bag). It's hard for late night comedians to make fun of someone who is providing real help to people in desperate need. Step 3: Develop really good / meaningful shows and stick with them even if the ratings aren't there. While this may result in lower profits in the short-term, NBC needs to convince viewers that they are capable of producing quality entertainment and don't just make crappy shows about who can lose the most weight.
That's it. Jay will go back on at 11:35 and will most likely become #1 again in a month or so. Major stars will not boycott Jay because the late night shows are vital to the promotion of their upcoming films and television series.
Sure, right now everyone is on Conan's side but once Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts have films to promote, they'll be right there back on Jay's couch. Without a doubt.
If these steps are taken, NBC should be in a pretty good position when they announce their fall 2010 shows at the May upfronts.
It's the end of an era. When "Seinfeld" went off the air in 1998 (!!) there was no bigger star in television who wielded more influence than Jerry Seinfeld. Senior creative executives from every major studio were falling all over themselves to get the next Seinfeld project. 
Then something strange happened this week: Jerry Seinfeld became irrelevant. 
And if the ratings continue to fall, it's will be increasingly hard for Jerry to recruit big name celebrities to be on the panel (and once you get down to the Phyllis Diller, Jamie Farr level - your show may be in trouble).
Jill Kennedy - OnMedea
Well, that didn't take long. There will be lots of "I'm With Coco" and David Letterman supporters that will say "It was expected...", "Everyone was just curious about the switch...", "Jay has all those Olympians on the show..."
The Billion Dollar Question is - WHY? 
From where I sit at my breakfast nook in La Canada, California, 3,000 miles from IAC's headquarters in New York, Barry Diller seems to be getting tired of it all. 
Ben Silverman is making this way too easy. 
It recently came to my attention that Ben Silverman was asked to give a keynote address at this year's MIPTV Conference in Cannes, France on April 13, 2010. Realizing that Ben is a very busy man (what with single-handedly changing the media landscape... again), I have taken the liberty of drafting his keynote address for him.
I'm actually surprised there isn't more inside media coverage of the disastrous debut of CBS Films' first release - "Extraordinary Measures" starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser ($6.0 Million opening weekend from over 2,500 theaters - finishing 8th behind "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel" in its 5th week). 
People really need to stop listening to this woman. I said it back in November when she made her crazy comments then, and I say it now. 
CBS Films - that scrappy upstart with the name that screams 'OLD MEDIA' ("Films", really? Can you even buy film stock anymore? The world is going digital, CBS) - hits the ground running today with its first release, "Extraordinary Measures" starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser.
