Kagan’s NBCU Deal Value Allocation

Deep-down, I believe almost everything Kagan puts out is bullshit.  Entertainment industry projections that are almost never right.

However, I had to give pause when I saw this chart regarding Comcast’s NBC Universal purchase.  If you’re an old media mogul, this chart should scare the living piss out of you (which for Sumner Redstone may be a healthy thing).

What Kagan is saying in this chart (and what I have believed for about a year now) is that Broadcast Networks are dead.  JUST LOOK AT THOSE VALUATIONS! $1.7 Billion gets you NBC AND Telemundo.  WTF?  (That price would get you around 30% of USA Network.)

Seriously, there is no purpose for a broadcast network anymore.  It’s old media moguls trying to hold on to the old days.  I hate to break to you guys… it’s over.   Martinis at The Smoke House and a show with a 40 share is fantastic… but it’s over.  Move on.

Steps should taken immediately to convert NBC to a basic cable channel (two revenue streams – come on, Jeff, mmmm – tasty).  Do this and NBC would, overnight, become the most popular cable channel on TV (until CBS converts).

What this chart says that I completely don’t believe (and DON’T WANT to believe) is that Intellectual Property is dead (film and television production and libraries).  That’s insane!  Does Kagan seriously think we’re heading for a future when content owners are no longer in charge? 

If Disney, Warner Bros., Fox, Paramount, Universal and Sony lose the ability to further exploit, in any meaningful way, their owned, copyrighted, fully-amortized content that they’ve acquired and produced over the past several decades – these companies are basically worthless.  A declining asset with no chance to recover.

Now, for the sake of my parent company, Manka Bros. Studios – The World’s Largest Media Company (thus, the company with the most to lose), I hope Kagan is wrong (like they normally are).  But, if Kagan is right, and we realize a future where studio libraries cost more to manage than they bring in and broadcast networks lose more and more market share to cable networks, who among us are going to survive?

Personally, I remain bullish on content and the future of intellectual property.  HOLD ON TO THOSE COPYRIGHTS, MEDIA COMPANIES!

A cable channel (even with two revenue streams) is nothing but a pipe into the home.  A convenience, yes.  A necessity, no.  The water, not the pipe, is what sustains life.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea