Deep-down, I believe almost everything Kagan puts out is bullshit. Entertainment industry projections that are almost never right.
However, I had to give pause when I saw this chart regarding Comcast’s NBC Universal purchase. If you’re an old media mogul, this chart should scare the living piss out of you (which for Sumner Redstone may be a healthy thing).
What Kagan is saying in this chart (and what I have believed for about a year now) is that Broadcast Networks are dead. JUST LOOK AT THOSE VALUATIONS! $1.7 Billion gets you NBC AND Telemundo. WTF? (That price would get you around 30% of USA Network.)
Seriously, there is no purpose for a broadcast network anymore. It’s old media moguls trying to hold on to the old days. I hate to break to you guys… it’s over. Martinis at The Smoke House and a show with a 40 share is fantastic… but it’s over. Move on.
Steps should taken immediately to convert NBC to a basic cable channel (two revenue streams – come on, Jeff, mmmm – tasty). Do this and NBC would, overnight, become the most popular cable channel on TV (until CBS converts).
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Kagan has been wrong about everything for years, but the broadcast valuation really makes you realize we’re playing 6 letter words for wordle while the industry is actually burning down. If content owners lose their leverage like this, the whole business model is basically toast.
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Kagan’s projections always feel a touch too tidy, but the value-allocation breakdown here is genuinely insightful. The real test is whether those synergies actually show up in NBCUniversal’s cable numbers two years out.