Terry Semel – Page 7

January 22, 2010February 22, 2012

Meredith Whitney Is Wrong – Part 2

People really need to stop listening to this woman. I said it back in November when she made her crazy comments then, and I say it now.

Even though I know she would love to take credit for the Wall Street panic this week, nothing could be further from the truth.

If you look at the news out of China and threats against future bank profits by the President of the United States (which she could have in no way predicted), it’s not difficult to see why so many people would feel jittery and want to sell off a few questionable stocks.

And then, today, Ms. Whitney throws gasoline onto the fire by saying President Obama’s proposed banking regulations will probably become law and “dramatically” reduce bank profits.

What? What shit is Meredith Whitney smoking to think that this bill will pass? I can even imagine President Obama and Paul Volcker secretly saying – ‘We’ll take a tough stand on the banks, but no way in hell does this pass.’

She even has the temerity to say this AFTER the Massachusetts Senatorial election this week. What’s going on here?

First of all, there is no chance this bill gets to the Congress before the mid-term elections in November and (thanks to the Supreme Court decision yesterday) with all the new money that corporations (including big banks) can spend on candidates, I suspect there will be a different make-up of the House and Senate by the time this bill does come up for a vote. And it will, most likely, be defeated – or watered down to a point that it really has no effect.

So, what is the point of Meredith Whitney speaking out with such bravado about how bad things are? Perhaps she is shorting everything in her portfolio and has discovered that she can move the markets with her statements. Perhaps she’s just a downer of a person and needs some joy in her life.

I don’t know – but it disturbs me whenever she talks.

Personally, I think President Obama was wrong to come out with such a strong statement against banks on the day Goldman Sachs reported such strong earnings. I think, in general, negativity about the economy should be released only in the Summer when people aren’t so gloomy and can handle bad news better.

Obviously, that can’t happen. And we shouldn’t “put lipstick on a pig”, as they say, if things are getting worse out there.

I just don’t believe things are getting worse. I don’t believe Meredith Whitney thinks things are getting worse, but, for whatever reason, she wants you to believe they are.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 22, 2010April 7, 2011

CBS Films’ Big Test

CBS Films – that scrappy upstart with the name that screams ‘OLD MEDIA’ (“Films”, really? Can you even buy film stock anymore? The world is going digital, CBS) – hits the ground running today with its first release, “Extraordinary Measures” starring Harrison Ford and Brendan Fraser.

Most start-up production companies don’t have Harrison Ford in their first movie. Most start-up production companies have the guy or girl that’s holding the boom pole also act in a major role and provide their own food and wardrobe. But most start-up production companies aren’t called “CBS FILMS”.

Why is there a CBS Films? It seems that Viacom (before Sumner Redstone’s idiotic decision to split the company in half – thus creating this problem in the first place) has a very nice movie production company called Paramount Pictures. They also made a couple of Harrison Ford movies. I remember he played a guy named Indiana Jones for them.

You see, I think it’s ridiculous CBS Films had to be formed. It’s not going to last (sorry, Les). New movie companies just don’t make it – even backed by a large media company like CBS. Yes, go ahead and scream all you want about Summit Entertainment and their success – but after they release two more teen-angst vampire movies – they’re done.

I understand Les Moonves’ desire to run a completely vertical entertainment conglomerate. But it’s no longer 1995. The media landscape has changed. The glorious gatekeeper days are over. Ask Harvey Weinstein how hard it is to build an empire from scratch (but you may have to buy him lunch to ask that question. Dude is totally broke).

Look, I work for The World’s Largest Media Company – Manka Bros. – and they have five movie labels and all of them suck. Sorry, Khan (my boss, Khan Manka, Jr.). And they’ve been doing it for 90 years.

Even though “Extraordinary Measures” looks like the kind of movie that would give me a really good cry on a Saturday night at home – WHILE WATCHING THE HALLMARK CHANNEL – I’m sort of rooting against this one to succeed.

You see, I want CBS to buy (or wrest away) Paramount Pictures from Viacom and then immediately close CBS Films. I want News Corporation to buy all the cable channels and other assets from Viacom.

Then I want Viacom and Sumner Redstone to go away… forever. (I realize Sumner will still be Chairman of CBS – but Chairman can be overthrown – ask Steve Case – even if it’s an old coot that’s never going to die.)

So, good luck CBS Films. It’s a tall mountain to climb. I’m thinking “Extraordinary Measures” will pull down between $10-15 million this weekend. Whether that is good enough to call the first release a success… we’ll just have to find out. Less than $10 million and there will be quite a few worried CBS Films execs on Monday morning.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 21, 2010April 7, 2011

Letterman vs. Leno

The Conan exit deal is done – probably the largest payout in television history for someone averaging a 2.5 rating.

It is presumed he will go to Fox and get a 2.0 rating at 11:00 (my guess is reruns of The Simpsons on local affiliates do better than that).

So, with apologies to Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, George Lopez, Charlie Rose, etc., it comes down, once again, to Letterman vs. Leno.

Who will win the ratings battle (long-term) once they resume head-to-head competition March 1, 2010?

It’s very simple:
Jay Leno wins – without a doubt.

Here’s why:

DEMOGRAPHICS: Late night talk show viewers are not the Taco-Bell-eating slacker college students that most of these hosts think they’re ‘in touch with’. That demo is watching The Daily Show, Colbert, Adult Swim or they’re online or playing video games (maybe they’re not consuming any media and are out pounding drinks and, God willing, conversing with the opposite sex). So, older viewers are watching Jay and Dave – and older viewers prefer Jay. It’s warm and safe television with Headlines and Jaywalking. Dave is ‘too edgy’ for older America, even in his advanced years.

VACATION: Jay is notorious for working 46-48 weeks a year. Dave works… less than that. Even if Dave wins the first few weeks after Jay returns in March (as expected), Jay will pick up viewers once Dave goes on his first long vacation.

WORK ETHIC: While I am not doubting that Dave works very hard to put on his show four nights a week, Jay is indefatigable. He always seems to be out with the public, doing stand-up, corporate events, car shows… almost anything the network asks him to do. Jay has a high visibility factor that Dave… doesn’t have. (Not that you need that to succeed – Johnny Carson was a painfully shy recluse and did just fine.) However, when you’re trying to win back the hearts and minds of your viewers, being visible with “your public” can go a long way.

HISTORY: Jay Leno has been a consistent ratings winner for 17 years. Yes, bad press and public sentiment has damaged that but most of Jay’s fans could care less about ‘The Tonight Show’ debacle (though, I think everyone would love to see Jeff Zucker get fired).

Finally, Jay spent 20 years in comedy clubs across the country before getting ‘The Tonight Show’ and he cut his teeth in that ruthless, back-stabbing world. If he survived the shit that went on in those clubs, he can survive almost anything.

Dave did quite a bit of stand-up in the 1970s, yes, but never really immersed himself into that world. Being a great comic was not on his radar. He has always been perceived (as he wished) as a TV guy.

Jay is a comic first and a TV guy next – which is why his fans keep watching – they simply want to hear jokes on ‘The Tonight Show’ told by a comic and not just a “funny person” doing bits.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Where were all these new Conan fans when he really needed them – over the summer when he started hosting The Tonight Show? If he had the ratings then that he has now – there is no controversy. Jay would be out and Conan would be in.

January 20, 2010April 8, 2011

The Human Target – Internet Advertising Gone Wrong

Allison Warren, AOL, Ari Emanuel, Ben Silverman, Brad Kern, Chi McBride, DC Comics, Fox Broadcasting, Grace Gilroy, inappropriate online advertising, Jackie Earle Haley, Jay Leno, Jeff Immelt, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Jonathan Steinberg, Kevin Hooks, Khan Manka, Manka Bros., Mark Valley, Matthew Federman, McG, Mike Desabrais, missing college students in Haiti, OnMedea, Peter Johnson, Simon West, Stephen Scaia, Terry Semel, The Human Target, Tim Armstrong

A couple of moments ago, I went to AOL.com to see what fresh content they had put up today and was greeted with a heartbreaking headline about four missing American college students in Haiti who were on a humanitarian mission when the earthquake struck last week.

Then, just as I was going to click-through to read about the parents’ anguished search for their children… The Human Target – Premiering On Fox – burst through the story headline with digital flames and bullet holes.

Call me crazy, and I realize it’s hard to pick and chose which stories get the full animated advertising treatment, but this seems a little inappropriate to me.

Can’t The Human Target just burst through Ben Silverman and Jeff Zucker stories?

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 19, 2010April 8, 2011

Jay Leno and NBC: Damage Control Begins

OK. So Conan is gone. Jay is back at 11:35. What’s next? Damage control.

Over the next few weeks, we can expect to see NBC Universal’s ‘A Team’ of publicists begin the seemingly impossible task of resuscitating the images of Jay Leno, The Tonight Show and NBC.

The Winter Olympics couldn’t have come at a better time to provide a necessary distraction – and it allows NBC Universal’s corporate publicists an extra two weeks to rebuild NBC’s shattered image.

So, here’s what needs to be done:

Step 1: Jeff Zucker must be fired. Regardless of what really happened behind the scenes, his name is synonymous with the total failure of NBC and it is perceived by the public that he is the main reason the Conan/Jay issue became such a mess. The fact that he actually believed the best way to handle the situation was to attack Conan O’Brien illustrates his complete inability to manage a crisis.

This is not someone that Comcast needs at the top of the new company to be formed and it’s, frankly, not someone that anyone needs (unless he wants to go join his buddy Ben Silverman in his soon-to-be failed company – Electus). That would be fine with me.

Step 2: Provide tons of food aid to Haitian earthquake victims (with the optional The Tonight Show With Jay Leno branding on each bag). It’s hard for late night comedians to make fun of someone who is providing real help to people in desperate need.

Step 3: Develop really good / meaningful shows and stick with them even if the ratings aren’t there. While this may result in lower profits in the short-term, NBC needs to convince viewers that they are capable of producing quality entertainment and don’t just make crappy shows about who can lose the most weight.

That’s it. Jay will go back on at 11:35 and will most likely become #1 again in a month or so. Major stars will not boycott Jay because the late night shows are vital to the promotion of their upcoming films and television series.

Sure, right now everyone is on Conan’s side but once Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts have films to promote, they’ll be right there back on Jay’s couch. Without a doubt.

If these steps are taken, NBC should be in a pretty good position when they announce their fall 2010 shows at the May upfronts.

However, if Step 1 is ignored – all bets are off.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 14, 2010April 8, 2011

The Tonight Show With Jay Leno

ABC, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Beverly Hills Hotel, Brian Roberts, CBS, Comcast, Conan O'Brien, CSI: NY, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Dick Wolf, Eastwick, ER, GE shareholder, Gossip Girl, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jay Leno ratings, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jill Kennedy, Jimmy Fallon, John Ferriter, Julianna Margulies, Kate Gosselin, Khan Manka, Law & Order, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Nikki Finke, Octomom, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, phoenix rising from the ashes, Producers Caucus Panel, Sharon Waxman, Stop all the clocks..., TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The CW, thewrap.com, Tonight Show With Jay Leno, W.H. Auden, Warner Bros., William Morris Endeavor

Done deal. The Tonight Show with Jay Leno from 11:35 – 12:35. Conan O’Brien: SOL.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 14, 2010April 11, 2011

Jeff Immelt, Brian Roberts: Jeff Zucker Has Got To Go

But this was ignored (granted, he may not even know OnMedea exists) and now it has become a PR disaster. Does he not see the total public support for Conan now that he is “the victim”? Not that Zucker gives a shit about public opinion – if he did, maybe NBC wouldn’t consistently be the #4 network.

Conan didn’t have to be “the victim”. He could have been portrayed as a “Wall Street bank” like Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan – who just got a $65 million payout bonus for doing no work.

Here’s a statement that should have been read two weeks ago: “We are canceling ‘The Jay Leno Show‘ and moving Jay back to ‘The Tonight Show‘ where he belongs – and where he was #1 for many years. Conan O’Brien has been a valuable member of the NBC family, but the ratings at 11:30 were not what we had hoped. However, we have made things right with Conan and paid out his contract – $65 million – and wish him luck wherever he may go next.”

Done.

But no, team Zucker (which includes the newly-installed Jeff Gaspin… that press conference on Sunday was a textbook on how not to handle something) decided to insult Conan by giving the failed Jay Leno the coveted 11:35pm time slot (a decision I agree with from a ratings / business standpoint) and asking Conan to move back to 12:05am. Conan should have been let go (the ratings WERE bad) and he should have been given HIS FULL PAYOUT. Simple. No PR disaster.

Now that little Zucker has insulted Conan AGAIN by saying he will keep him off the air for 3 1/2 years because “he failed to live up to his promise to me.” Are you fucking kidding me? Basta!

So… Jeff Immelt and Brian Roberts – as a GE and Comcast shareholder – I would ask that you please end this ridiculous, horribly managed crisis by firing Jeff Zucker – not when the Comcast acquisition goes through – now.

January 13, 2010April 12, 2011

Peter Sarsgaard – Green Lantern Villain – Who Cares!?

OK geeks. Time to go outside for a little air.

I just noticed that the current most popular item on Digg is a story about Peter Sarsgaard possibly being cast as the villain in next year’s Green Lantern movie.

WHO GIVES A FUCK?! Jesus Christ, seriously, with the unimaginably horrific tragedy unfolding in Haiti, who cares about who will play the villain in The Green Lantern?!

Sure, he’s a fine actor. I’m sure he’ll be good in the part. BUT WHO CARES?! Please don’t spend the valuable time you have remaining in your lives “DIGGING” stories like this.

Here’s how this story should be discussed:

TWEET: Peter Sarsgaard may play the villain in “The Green Lantern” movie?
RESPONSE: Cool.

End of story.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 11, 2010April 12, 2011

Jeff Gaspin – What The Hell Was That?

The Jay Leno Show cancellation announcement by Jeff Gaspin – Chairman NBC Entertainment – was handled in just about the worst way possible. It should have so simple: Announce the news; admit it was mistake and talk about the exciting changes to come. That’s it.

Instead, Jeff Gaspin’s announcement at the TCA Winter Press Tour was a stunning display on how not to do something. He was defensive (even blaming other parts of the company) and basically said he didn’t really know what they were going to do next.

Let’s break down the key quotes:

Gaspin: “I would have liked nothing more than to give this (The Jay Leno Show) a 52-week try.” (You’re the freakin’ Chairman of NBC Entertainment – don’t you have the power to give it a try for as long you’d like no matter who is against it? Especially if you would have ‘liked nothing more’?

Gaspin: “This was not an issue for the network…” (No, of course not, NBC kicks ass! Fourth place ass. But it still kicks ass!)

Gaspin: “… it was an issue for our affiliates.” (That’s it, blame another part of your company. One great leadership trait is knowing whom should be blamed in a time of crisis.)

Gaspin: “We were making money at 10 p.m. I think, over time, (‘Leno’s’ ratings) might have started to grow. For the network, it was not yet a wrong decision.” (You really went out on a limb on that one. ‘It was not yet a wrong decision?’ What the fuck is that? Come on, Jeff, just say ‘Yes, it was the wrong decision. We failed but we’re going to fix it.’ The culture at NBC has got to change. When the Chairman of the company is afraid of accountability, what hope is there for the rest of the executive team?)

So, Jeff, was “Leno” a mistake?

Gaspin: “I don’t think it’s wrong to take chances. We might have been too early on this one.” (Ah, I see… you’re just ahead of your time. The world is not ready for the bold programming choices coming from NBC. The world is not ready for a powder puff monologue followed by lame celebrity interviews at 10pm. Fight on, lone ranger, one day the world will catch up to your vision.)

You want to know how to avoid a “PR Issue”, Jeff – nut-up and take the blame for a mistake. Obviously, your boss Jeff Zucker is too much of a wimp to acknowledge failure. As I said in October, it’s a stupid TV show that didn’t work – it’s not that big of a deal. It was a programming choice that didn’t work. Simple as that.

Now, get out there and make the best “Law & Order” spin-off that you can.

Godspeed, Jeff Gaspin.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 11, 2010April 12, 2011

American Idol – R.I.P.

Another iconic American television show is dead.

Simon Cowell (with impeccable timing as always) announced today at the Television Critics Association winter press tour he has decided to leave American Idol to become creator/producer/judge of the American version of his hit UK talent show The X Factor. That show will launch in 2011 on Fox.

Simon has realized (along with the rest of the country) that American Idol has become irrelevant and knew it was time to move on.

A word of advice to Simon Fuller and the producers of American Idol… make this season your last. Don’t attempt some lame version of A.I. without Simon Cowell. It won’t work and people won’t watch.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea