Jon Stewart – OnMedea

April 6, 2010April 6, 2011

TBS Gets It Right

Andrew Heller, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barbro Holmberg, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Brian Roberts, Charlie Rose, Conan O'Brien, David Letterman, David Levy, Dawn Ostroff, Deborah Wright, Frank Caufield, Fred Hassan, GE shareholder, George Lopez, Greg D'Alba, Jack Wakshlag, james Barksdale, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, jessica Einhorn, Jill Kennedy, Jim McCaffrey, Jim Walton, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, John Ferriter, John Kampfe, Jon Stewart, Josefin Lonnborg, Kelly Regal, Kenneth Novack, Khan Manka, Les Moonves, Louise Sams, mama's family, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Mark Steinberg, Mathias Dopfner, Michael Miles, Nancy Tellum, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, Phil Kent, Robert Clark, Scott Teissler, Sharon Waxman, Stephen Bollenbach, Stephen Colbert, Steven Koonin, Stuart Snyder, TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The Office, Tony DiSanto, Vicky Lawrence, William Barr, William Morris Endeavor

So… Conan O’Brien has decided to go to TBS. Like him or not, get his comedy or not, Conan immediately brings a “hip” factor to TBS where it currently has none. Whether that will be enough to truly take the network to another level is a huge unknown at this point.

I have a feeling this announcement has taken the wind out of the sails of the “I’m With Coco” movement. For some reason, I think they wanted him to stay off TV and start some crazy live streaming Internet-only revolution from a shack in the desert. Sorry freaks. Perhaps you can steal your basic cable feed and still feel like a revolutionary.

This is a big bet for TBS but one it can certainly afford to take. Two revenue streams RULE! If it doesn’t work, they can always move “Lopez Tonight” (with its 1.0 rating) back to 11pm and put the always profitable “Ab Roller Deluxe” informercial on at midnight.

The biggest obstacle is the fact that TBS still feels (to me – and I’m not alone) like a network that airs nothing but “Mama’s Family” reruns and very low quality VHS tapes of 1980s comedies. I know this isn’t the case anymore and they actually do have some solid programming with “The Office” and “Family Guy” reruns, etc. and have had some success in original programming with all those Tyler Perry shows (What, are there 10 series now? All with 350 episode commitments?).

But adding Conan puts TBS on a different level – a network level with a big advantage – they don’t need Leno-size ratings to call it a “hit”.

Imagine the spinmeisters at Turner the day after its debut: “Late Night Cable Talk Show’s Biggest Night Ever!”; “Conan Conquers Cable!”; “The Colbert Killer!”… “2.0 in Metered Markets – 18-49”… Okay, they won’t put that one in the Trades but that’s about what we can expect on the high end. If a 2.0 late night rating is worth a $100 million investment, then TBS has made the right move.

Personally, I think it IS the right move – if anything just to improve their image. All the other shit that’s on TBS will suddenly be given a second look which may make people slow down the remote as they’re passing by on their way to USA or FX.

For Conan, I think this is also the best move. Though if he ultimately fails on TBS, his career is over (unless he is willing to take the 1:30a.m. Last Call slot from what’s his name – that guy that dated Tara Reid). Not going to Fox and being beaten badly by Jay Leno was a very smart move by Conan. And a very smart move by Fox – which doesn’t have two revenue streams (yet) and, thus, doesn’t have money to burn.

So… good luck, Conan. You have made a good match. And I can’t wait to hear all those jokes you’ll make about what a crappy network TBS is. The crappy network that is paying you $100 million dollars.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 18, 2010April 6, 2011

Can Elin Woods Learn From Conan O’Brien?

As Tiger Woods slowly reemerges from hiding and Team-Tiger Damage Control goes full throttle, there is an interesting parallel to be made between the Tiger/Elin Woods drama and the NBC/Conan O’Brien drama (which cost all of us a few months out of our lives).

Imagine Conan and Elin on one side and Tiger, Jay Leno, Jeff Zucker and NBC and on the other.

The parallel begins with a couple of a wide-eyed youths – dreaming of the big time.

Conan: Becomes a comedy writer for such shows as “The Simpsons” and “Saturday Night Live”, works his way up to get his own late night talk show on NBC but deep-down only imagines himself the host of one show… the crown jewel of the late night talk shows… “The Tonight Show”.

Elin: Is a nanny for a Swedish golf pro and hangs around a lot of single golfers on tour but really only imagines herself with one man… the crown jewel of golfers… Tiger Woods.

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Conan: Finally gets “The Tonight Show” in 2009 after slumming it for 16 years at 12:35am.

Elin: Finally gets a marriage proposal in 2004 from Tiger Woods after slumming it as a nanny for Jesper Parnevik’s kids.

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Conan: Jay Leno retires from “The Tonight Show” and prepares to launch an ill-conceived prime time talk show – “The Jay Leno Show”. Conan, believing NBC’s promise, happily takes over the reigns of “The Tonight Show” and looks forward to a long and prosperous run as host.

Elin: Tiger Woods retires from his crazy single days and prepares for an ill-conceived life of domestic bliss. Elin, believing Tiger, happily sets up a life of wealth and prosperity (and has two children to complete the ideal picture).

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Conan: Jay Leno’s ratings crash after one week on the air. Jeff Zucker at NBC begins to question the decision to move Jay to prime time especially considering Conan O’Brien’s horrible ratings.

Elin: Tiger Woods crashes a Cadillac Escalade into a tree after Elin Woods decides to move a few of his teeth from the front to the back of his mouth with a 7 iron.

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Conan: Begins to feel humiliated by rumors of Jay Leno returning to late night.

Elin: Begins to feel humiliated by rumors of Tiger Woods having 11 mistresses (6 of them ‘serious’).

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Conan: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Conan decides to leave NBC with $45 million.

Elin: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Elin decides to hold out for $800 million! Take that suckers.

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As for the future? Here’s my guess:

Conan: Having finalized the divorce from NBC, agrees to a deal with TBS.
Elin: After finalizing the divorce from Tiger, agrees to go on a disastrous first date with Rory Sabbatini (or some other less successful golfer that wishes he was Tiger Woods). She breaks her promise not to talk about Tiger’s affairs and loses everything. The book doesn’t sell and she moves in with John Daly.

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Dear Elin:

Conan couldn’t in good conscious stay at NBC (even though his dream life went up in flames) and you can’t stay with Tiger (even though your dream life has gone up in flames). Take the money and run to that house in Sweden. You will have a better future.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 21, 2010April 7, 2011

Letterman vs. Leno

The Conan exit deal is done – probably the largest payout in television history for someone averaging a 2.5 rating.

It is presumed he will go to Fox and get a 2.0 rating at 11:00 (my guess is reruns of The Simpsons on local affiliates do better than that).

So, with apologies to Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, George Lopez, Charlie Rose, etc., it comes down, once again, to Letterman vs. Leno.

Who will win the ratings battle (long-term) once they resume head-to-head competition March 1, 2010?

It’s very simple:
Jay Leno wins – without a doubt.

Here’s why:

DEMOGRAPHICS: Late night talk show viewers are not the Taco-Bell-eating slacker college students that most of these hosts think they’re ‘in touch with’. That demo is watching The Daily Show, Colbert, Adult Swim or they’re online or playing video games (maybe they’re not consuming any media and are out pounding drinks and, God willing, conversing with the opposite sex). So, older viewers are watching Jay and Dave – and older viewers prefer Jay. It’s warm and safe television with Headlines and Jaywalking. Dave is ‘too edgy’ for older America, even in his advanced years.

VACATION: Jay is notorious for working 46-48 weeks a year. Dave works… less than that. Even if Dave wins the first few weeks after Jay returns in March (as expected), Jay will pick up viewers once Dave goes on his first long vacation.

WORK ETHIC: While I am not doubting that Dave works very hard to put on his show four nights a week, Jay is indefatigable. He always seems to be out with the public, doing stand-up, corporate events, car shows… almost anything the network asks him to do. Jay has a high visibility factor that Dave… doesn’t have. (Not that you need that to succeed – Johnny Carson was a painfully shy recluse and did just fine.) However, when you’re trying to win back the hearts and minds of your viewers, being visible with “your public” can go a long way.

HISTORY: Jay Leno has been a consistent ratings winner for 17 years. Yes, bad press and public sentiment has damaged that but most of Jay’s fans could care less about ‘The Tonight Show’ debacle (though, I think everyone would love to see Jeff Zucker get fired).

Finally, Jay spent 20 years in comedy clubs across the country before getting ‘The Tonight Show’ and he cut his teeth in that ruthless, back-stabbing world. If he survived the shit that went on in those clubs, he can survive almost anything.

Dave did quite a bit of stand-up in the 1970s, yes, but never really immersed himself into that world. Being a great comic was not on his radar. He has always been perceived (as he wished) as a TV guy.

Jay is a comic first and a TV guy next – which is why his fans keep watching – they simply want to hear jokes on ‘The Tonight Show’ told by a comic and not just a “funny person” doing bits.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Where were all these new Conan fans when he really needed them – over the summer when he started hosting The Tonight Show? If he had the ratings then that he has now – there is no controversy. Jay would be out and Conan would be in.