It won’t be a guy this year. I think it comes down to Hollie vs. Jessica. Phillip will be the shocking elimination and he’ll have a decent career. He’ll leave around #5. I hate Colton too.

My predictions aren’t exactly the same, but they are not that far different.

12 Elyse Her personality is the antithesis of charisma. Her on stage presence is lacking too. Her greatest asset is the tone of her voice, but she doesn’t have that much voice control. Plus, her voice style is not that flexible to adapt to whatever short sighted theme idol comes up with in any given week. Lastly she is not that attractive in comparison with the competition. That shouldn’t be a big factor, but it is. The judges have been doing a good job of not being shallow, aided in great part to Simon leaving the show, but as we seen over the last two weeks, the voters vote with their eyes, particularly with women contestants

11 Jermaine- He has potential but he is just not ready this season. Needs one or two more years to grow.

10 Erika This will be the 2nd most unfair elimination. She will be penalized for not being young and attractive, where attractiveness is defined by being young and thin. (Not how I would necessarily define attractiveness btw) I don’t think she has helped herself in these areas with her wardrobe selection.

9 Joshua This will be the most unfair elimination. I just don’t think he will connect with the voters. I hope I am wrong. Idol may wish they had brought back the save. I presume they ditched it this year in favor of bringing back Jermaine.

8 Deandre His vocals are overrated. He will be this years DeWyze/Gokey recipient for repeated unmerited praise over medicore performances. Yes, he has a falsetto that can go unusually high. It is his one trick. His greatest strength, his attractiveness, is negated by his shyness and occasional effiminate mannerisms.

7 Heejun 2nd hardest contestant to predict. His staying power will depend not so much on his vocals but on his ability to connect with the voters. Possible voting demographics – Asians, underdogs, geeks, and counter culture types. Unfortunately, that is not that great of a Idol voting demographic.

6 Shannon She is the hardest to predict. If she sings like she did last week, than she will be out much sooner. I believe that her poor performance was an anomaly and not atypical.

5 Skylar Doesn’t do much for me. Looks like Rachel Dratch from SNL (aka “Debbie Downer”). However, she is happy, bubbly, and sings country music. That is a great recipe for an American Idol contestant.

4 Colton Personally, I think Colton is a narcissistic douche. However, he is in the prime Idol voting demographic – white males – and there is only two of them left. This spot will fall to Colton, he will not have earned it.

3 Jessica Easily the best singer. She also very attractive. She would be my choice for this years American Idol. However, I wouldn’t be too shocked if she was eliminated in slots 6-4.
a) She doesn’t quite have the bubbly personality to connect with voters, at least as the #1 contestant level. I’ll say it, she might even be a teency bit stuck up.
b) Like all female front runners, judges will start grading her on a curve. For example, if she delivers an 8.5 performance – while typically delivering 9.5/10 performance – the judges will note the decline. Meanwhile, if a less talented contestant like Skylar gives an 8 performance, while typically giving 7’s, the judges will applaud the improvemment. Voters, who are heavily influenced by the judges comments, will be of the mindset that Jessica did worse that week, when in fact she did better.

2 Hollie – Not quite as talented as Jessica, but has the sweet bubblyness that Idol voters crave.

1 Phillip Personally, I think he deserves a #3 or #4 spot, but the voters seem to love him.

Colton should be #1