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Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015
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Original Post (Facebook Is Worthless):
Salacious headline? Yes. True? Also yes.
This is not a slam against the EXTREME popularity and unprecedented GROWTH story that is Facebook. This is a reality check of an unsustainable business model.
Much like a homeowner who can no longer afford an overinflated house purchased during the height of the bubble and decides to walk away, Facebook (with claims that it will hit ONE BILLION users in the not too distant future) has given it all away for free for far to long to change.
But change it must or Facebook Is Worthless.
Imagine the cable networks at their inception (especially premium channels like HBO) giving the channel to anyone for free at the beginning and then trying to convince customers to pay down the line. It’s a daunting task. One that Hulu is going through now – but they made the hard decision, and even though traffic and video streams will certainly fall, it will soon be profitable because it wasn’t too late to right the ship.
Imagine Disney/Pixar putting out Toy Story 3 for free in theaters and trying to make up their costs by throwing up billboards along the walls. What kind of idiot would do that? It would never be considered.
People love (and some actually depend on) Facebook, but it is too late to right the ship – and not just because no one cares or pays any attention to the banner ads that are thrown up against everyone’s status updates. It’s because people are starting to get really bored with it.
There are some late adapters that are still in the ecstasy phase of seeing their old high school friends as they look today (Facebook has ruined surprise factor of high school reunions forever, but I digress), but for the most part – at least in my case – most of my Facebook friends have stopped participating. They will pop on once a day or so just to see if anyone has posted any new drunken pictures or family photos of the new baby, but that’s about it.
My Facebook experience now is basically the same five people posting the same boring crap.
The Bored Office Worker who posts about “needing coffee” – and “can’t wait for Happy Hour!”
The Super Mom who claims every morning – “Went to 8 museums adn made banana bread all before 10am! My kids are awesome and sooooo funny!”
The Quoter who searches quotation websites looking for some daily affirmation that will get about 15 “Likes” and a few “I’m going to use that!” replies.
The Reviewer who writes stuff like “Smoke Monster? Shit Monster if you ask me!”
The Pissed Off Traveler with daily pearls like “10 hours on the tarmac!” and “Yet another delay, thank you American Airlines!”
And that’s about it. Every day, the same five people and I have over 300 Facebook friends (even though I only see about three friends actually in person in any given month).
The valuation on Facebook is so high that no one could possibly acquire it now (not even my employer, the insanely deep-pocketed Manka Bros. Studios) especially considering there is really no monetary growth story.
As it becomes more of a digital dumping ground, costs continue to rise. It has peaked as a global fascination. Check the value of Bebo, Myspace, Friendster, etc. and you’ll see the future of Facebook. Even though Mark Zuckerberg claims he’s different than all the others.
So here’s what Facebook needs to do – start charging every current or new user $0.99/month. Just ninety-nine cents per user per month to use all the features they currently use. New services may make it possible to bump that up to a premium fee down the line.
Millions will leave and start some “Facebook Should Be Free” movement, but other millions (like my five daily posters who feel they need to be heard) will definitely pay. Because $0.99 is nothing. It’s the purchase price of a pig on Farmville. There will still be advertising and cross-promotional opportunities and corporate sponsorships, etc. – multi revenue streams.
But the free culture has to change or Facebook is Worthless.
Deep down, at least to me, this seems to be the reason the IPO hasn’t happened. Zuckerberg says he’s not interested and will delay the IPO as long as possible. Yeah, because it’s a $15 billion company (so they say) with costs that exceed revenue – and no signs of that ever changing.
I wouldn’t be interested in an IPO either.
Someone enlighten me and correct my ignorance.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
you sir, are an idiot
Seriously, Bob? If you think Facebook should be worth the market caps of Time Warner and News Corp combined… then you are the idiot.
Isn’t it Facebook’s long-term intent to simply sell user information?
i think shes pissed she didnt get her own movie
Definitely pissed.
you balling but you work at a fast food place
Can I make a suggestion? I feel youve acquired one thing good here. However what if you happen to added a pair links to a web page that backs up what youre saying? Or perhaps you possibly can give us something to take a look at, something that would join what youre saying to one thing tangible? Only a suggestion. Anyway, in my language, there will not be a lot good supply like this.
Build a man a fire, and he’ll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he’ll be warm for the rest of his life.
If toast always lands butter-side down, and cats always land on their feet, what happens if you strap toast on the back of a cat and drop it?
Puritanism: The haunting fear that someone, somewhere, may be happy.
I suppose it took Google being a subscription service to be profitable also? Why liken Facebook to cable television channels and not other tech companies. All Facebook has to do is maximize ad revenue, which thus far they have not done. It will annoy people a little more, but they’ve trenched themselves in people’s lives to the point that they will have to withstand the annoyance of extra ad space to continue using the site. And last I heard, the company was cutting a profit, albeit small, but a profit none the less.
Young people are always like that. They think a club-pub is all kwl until they are bored and move to another one to make it “their own”. They all moved from Xanga to Myspace and from this last to FB. Pretty sure they will move to something else as soon as it appears. They are just swarm of hoppers.
Its exactly as you described. I got a few handful of people on FB writing quotes, posting boring baby pics, youtube videos and writing things like “today Im tired”. Ok great, you are tired, “go to sleep? get a rest?” and the last one posting a bunch of religious stuff as usual. All I do is update MY boring baby pics (that I myself find amazing, cause is my baby! ha!) for the grandparents and other family members who like kids. The rest of the people I know are completely bored with them, the same way as Im bored with my friends baby pics lol.
In my life FB is just dying too quickly. And I dont like it cause I cannot make it personal, like imprint things that make me unique. The site looks just the same all the time and thats so dull. My husband doesnt want FB, he never wanted an account and he said that he is fine as anti-social as he is ahaha. Truth is that I found very old primary school friends, we had one day of chatting and now they are nothing than a name in my friends list.
I think older people would be the ones who stayed on FB if they had to pay anything. Cause they love to be in contact with family members, even if they dont speak to each other that often.
Great post. And it has gotten worse since I wrote that item. I literally do a quick 5 minute scroll a couple of times a day and it never changes.
@ May and @ Jill
well said; being from Boston we believe cynicism is a virtue and embrace it like everyone once did Friendster. Remember Friendster? yeah me either. It was literally MINUTES of fun.
I have a business idea for the three of us, we start a site called facepalmbook.com and re-post all the nonsense posts as described above.
“oh why do gummy bears have to be so cute; it makes them harder to eat!”
or
“(insert facebook friend name) just checked into (insert name of place I don’t care where facebook friend checked into)”
or
“(insert ultra vague or overly personal information and end with) crying”
I think it’s a winner, if nothing else; we’d have some laughs.
Reminds me of a tweet I saw a couple of months ago – something about combining Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to form a new site – YouTwitFace.
LOL
That’s a great idea.
Oh and btw… let reminds us that young people DONT like to pay and WONT never pay for this kind of things. They like anything FREE and would use something as long as it stays free.
Exactly, May. My point was that it’s really a Catch 22 – they need to charge to survive but if they do charge, they will die. It’s really a no win situation.