OnMedea – Page 9 – Chopping Up Truth In Media Since 2009

January 13, 2011April 3, 2011

The Trouble With Groupon

I believe Groupon is headed for failure.

Even if they somehow survive, I fear they are doomed to be a company we all view with complete indifference.

I don’t write this lightly. I was amazed and sort of proud that they had the balls to turn down Google’s $6 billion offer.

Founders and senior management becoming fabulously wealthy excepted, there really is no upside to signing away your soul to a giant soulless corporation (take that Manka Bros.!) if you have a solid business or at least unique concept that absolutely cannot fail.

I was rooting for this upstart that had the guts to resist billions. I signed up and started to get the daily deals that were offered – “40% off a facial ($75 value!)”; “Pay $10 for $20 worth of hair products (not my brand)”, etc… these horrible “deals” kept coming and coming and I kept NOT BUYING. Now I believe they should have sold.

Groupon is not a terrible business – a little annoying, a notch above Spammer – but it’s basically a business that pushes all this crap on people that they don’t need (and from my experience, mostly stuff that I don’t even want). The brilliance they have is that they make you think you’re getting these amazing deals and you’d better buy soon or they’re gone forever. Consumers will wise up to this fairly quickly.

Sure, millions are buying (with Groupon keeping well over 50% of the proceeds) and it’s probably good for some of the small businesses that are participating (though I have heard of several disaster stories) – but it’s really just a sexier online version of Valpak – those blue envelopes of local coupons that we all get in the mail and we mostly ignore.

If Groupon really wanted to add value to my life, they would offer “50% off my Trader Joe’s bill”; “$5,000 off a 2011 Prius”; “$10 will get you $20 in cash”, etc. Things like that would be valuable to me. I would buy those. But Groupon can’t offer these things because Trader Joe’s and Toyota would be crazy to do it (and wouldn’t even dream of it) and the shit Groupon actually has to offer isn’t really… real. It’s just made up facts and figures to make you believe you’re getting a great deal.

Let’s say I own a Day Spa and offer $50 off a $300 massage. What makes it a $300 massage? I own the Spa, I set the price – there is no $50 value to be saved. I could go to another spa and get a $50 massage and save $200 more than I would have buying the Groupon. Groupon’s genius is convincing consumers that they are saving money on these great services when, really, the cheapest option is NOT TO BUY GROUPONS. That costs zero ($0) dollars.

And now, because the business model is so easy to replicate, I’m getting offers from Groupilicious, CouponYou, My Little Deuce Coupon, CouponDeville, Grouper With A Squeeze of Lemon, etc. and it will never stop because local businesses will always try to drum up sales by knocking 40% off a price that they set themselves. Buy it wholesale, mark up the price 100%, offer a Groupon for 40% off – still make 20% on the sale. It’s not difficult.

Right now Groupon is sexy. Even sexier after turning down Google. They are hiring an army of MBAs in their 20s, everybody dresses down – it’s a real startup mentality, it’s Chicago, it’s exciting. Hell, an IPO is coming!

But I look into the future, and all I see is Valpak. Ever been to a Valpak office? Not sexy. Not exciting. No roller skates, no ping pong – the only perks there are 20% off bagels when you buy one dozen.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

December 15, 2010April 3, 2011

The Hollywood Foreign Press Has Done It Again!

Ahmed Lateef, Aida Takla-O'Reilly, Alena Prime, Alessandra Venezia, Alexander Nevsky, Ali Sar, Ana Maria Bahiana, Andre Guimond, Aniko Navai, Anita Baum, Anke Hofmann, Ari Emanuel, Armando Gallo, Aud Berggren Morisse, Avik Gilboa, Ben Silverman, Cameron Diaz, Cher, Dagmar Dunlevy, Dierk Sindermann, Edmund Brettschneider, Elisa Leonelli, Elisabeth Sereda, Elmar Biebl, Emanuel Levy, Erkki "Erik" Kanto, Ersi Danou, Frances Schoenberger, Frank Rousseau, Gabriel Lerman, Gabrielle Donnelly, George Doss, Gilda Baum-Lappe, Golden Globes, H.J. Park, Hans J. Spurkel, Harvey Weinstein, Helen Hoehne, Helena Mar-Elia, Helmut Voss, Herve Tropea, Hollywood Foreign Press members, Howard Lucraft, Isabelle Caron, Jack Tewksbury, Janet R. Nepales, Jean E. Cummings, Jean-Paul Chaillet, Jenny Cooney Carrillo, Jerry Watson, Jill Kennedy, John Hiscock, Jorge Camara, Judy Solomon, Juliette Michaud, Karen Martin, Khan Manka, Kleo Lee, Lawrie Masterson, Lilly Lui, Lisa Lu, Lorenzo Soria, Luca Celada, Lynn M. Tso, Magnus Sundholm, Mahfouz Doss, Manka Bros., Margaret Gardiner, Maria Snoeys-Lagler, Mario Amaya, Marlene von Arx, Maureen Dragone, Max B. Miller, Meher Tatna, Mike Goodridge, Mira Panajotovic, Mohammed Rouda, Munawar Hosain, Nellee A. Holmes, Noel de Souza, Noemia Young, OnMedea, Paolua Abou-Jaoude, Patrica Danaher, Patrick Roth, Paz Mata, Philip Berk, Ramzi Malouki, Ray Arco, Ricky Gervais, Ricky van Veen, Rocio Ayuso, Ruben V. Nepales, Rui Henriques Coimbra, Scarlett Johansson, Scott Orlin, Serge Rakhlin, Silvia Bizio, The Tourist, Theo Kingma, Vera Anderson, Yenny Nun-Katz, Yoko Narita, Yola Czaderska-Hayek, Yoram Kahana, Yukiko Nakajima

OK, just admit it, guys, you love movie stars and only nominate the people you would like to ‘go to disco’ with.

I mean, I sort of know where you’re coming from – “The Tourist” sucked but, of course, I would rather sit at “The Tourist” table than the “Winter’s Bone” table (if there is one of those it will probably be in an Annex room – in a different hotel).

“Burlesque” was unwatchable, sure, but you had to somehow recognize Cher – her music is the soundtrack of your lives.

The problem is, it’s just way too obvious that you don’t want any ugly people to be invited to The Golden Globes. You just have a mental block. If a hot chick or guy can sort of speak (and even that may not be a prerequisite), they have a chance to get nominated for a Golden Globe.

December 8, 2010April 20, 2011

Kagan’s NBCU Deal Value Allocation

Deep-down, I believe almost everything Kagan puts out is bullshit. Entertainment industry projections that are almost never right.

However, I had to give pause when I saw this chart regarding Comcast’s NBC Universal purchase. If you’re an old media mogul, this chart should scare the living piss out of you (which for Sumner Redstone may be a healthy thing).

What Kagan is saying in this chart (and what I have believed for about a year now) is that Broadcast Networks are dead. JUST LOOK AT THOSE VALUATIONS! $1.7 Billion gets you NBC AND Telemundo. WTF? (That price would get you around 30% of USA Network.)

Seriously, there is no purpose for a broadcast network anymore. It’s old media moguls trying to hold on to the old days. I hate to break to you guys… it’s over. Martinis at The Smoke House and a show with a 40 share is fantastic… but it’s over. Move on.

Steps should taken immediately to convert NBC to a basic cable channel (two revenue streams – come on, Jeff, mmmm – tasty). Do this and NBC would, overnight, become the most popular cable channel on TV (until CBS converts).

Andy Forssell, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Arthur Block, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Brad Grey, Brian Roberts, Chadwick Ho, Comcast, copyrights, David Cohen, Dr. Judith Rodin, Edward Breen, Eric Feng, Fancast, Galen Warren, Gerald Hassell, Hulu, intellectual property, J. Michael Cook, James Record, Jason Kilar, Jean-Paul Colaco, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Honickman, Jill Kennedy, Joe Collins, Johannes Larcher, Julian Brodsky, Kenneth Bacon, Khan Manka, Lawrence Salva, Manka Bros., Michael Angelakis, Michael Sovern, Mike Chin, Nate Haskins, NBCU Deal Value Allocation, Nick Cafferillo, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Ralph Roberts, Reid Nagle, Rupert Murdoch, S. Decker Anstrom, Sheldon M. Bonovitz, SNL Kagan, Stephen Burke, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, Theresa Torian, Tom Corbitt, Tom Fuelling, Will Pappas

What this chart says that I completely don’t believe (and DON’T WANT to believe) is that Intellectual Property is dead (film and television production and libraries). That’s insane! Does Kagan seriously think we’re heading for a future when content owners are no longer in charge?

If Disney, Warner Bros., Fox, Paramount, Universal and Sony lose the ability to further exploit, in any meaningful way, their owned, copyrighted, fully-amortized content that they’ve acquired and produced over the past several decades – these companies are basically worthless. A declining asset with no chance to recover.

Now, for the sake of my parent company, Manka Bros. Studios – The World’s Largest Media Company (thus, the company with the most to lose), I hope Kagan is wrong (like they normally are). But, if Kagan is right, and we realize a future where studio libraries cost more to manage than they bring in and broadcast networks lose more and more market share to cable networks, who among us are going to survive?

Personally, I remain bullish on content and the future of intellectual property. HOLD ON TO THOSE COPYRIGHTS, MEDIA COMPANIES!

A cable channel (even with two revenue streams) is nothing but a pipe into the home. A convenience, yes. A necessity, no. The water, not the pipe, is what sustains life.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

November 15, 2010August 10, 2011

TBS – Go Get Your Shinebox

What is it going to take for TBS (or any other Basic Cable channel) to get a little respect?

I watched the premiere week of Conan and thought it was fine and exactly what I expected (which is a slight disappointment, right?). (Also, why was it on at 10pm on DirecTV when every advertisement in the world says 11pm?… but I digress.)

The one thing that did stand out was the constant bashing of TBS and Basic Cable in general (I know it is a joke, I get it – I also got it in 1985 when the Basic Cable jokes started). But times have changed.

I was a proponent of Conan leaving NBC and for Jeff Zucker to be fired for many MANY reasons (including the handling of the Jay/Conan affair and for having anything to do with Ben Silverman. Please, someone wash everything Ben touched, it’s filthy!).

But, I must say, I’m disappointed with the way Conan has handled the transition to TBS. It was a very difficult decision, I’m sure, but why bash your new home?

Why is Basic Cable still struggling for any sort of respect?

It’s all very reminiscent of the scene from “Goodfellas” with Billy Batts (Frank Vincent) and Tommy DeVito (Joe Pesci) in the bar. Imagine Billy Batts is the “Broadcast Networks” and Tommy DeVito is “Basic Cable”:

Basic Cable: No more shines, Broadcast Networks.

Broadcast Networks: What?

Basic Cable: I said, no more shines. Maybe you didn’t hear about it, you’ve been away a long time. I don’t shine shoes anymore.

Broadcast Networks: Relax, will ya? Ya flip out, what’s got into you? I’m breaking your balls a little bit, that’s all. I’m only kidding with ya…

Basic Cable: Sometimes you don’t sound like you’re kidding, you know, there’s a lotta people around…

Broadcast Networks: I’m only kidding with you. I’m breaking your balls, and you’re getting fucking fresh. I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to offend you.

Basic Cable: I’m sorry, too. It’s okay. No problem.

Broadcast Networks: Now go home and get your fuckin’ shinebox!

Basic Cable: Mother fuckin’ mutt! You fucking piece of shit!

If you remember the movie, Tommy then kicked and stabbed Billy about a thousand times, threw him in the trunk of his car and buried him in some disgusting pit. I’m not saying Basic Cable will completely bury the Broadcast Networks – but it seems to be headed that general direction – so Broadcast Networks had better cut it out with the “shinebox attitude”.

And seriously, to watch Conan, you would think the year is 1985 and the only programming on TBS was really bad VHS copies of really bad 1970s movies and a few Body By Jake infommercials.

This is 2010 and Basic Cable Channels are a key driver and profit center helping to keep the Hollywood machine afloat.

So how about a little respect, Conan? I know you’re only getting $10 million from that suckass TBS that gives you “no budget” (other than a very large one) but come on!

And are you taping this show from some local station in Palmdale or in a very nice soundstage on a very nice Burbank studio lot? And do you have one blimp to promote your show or zero blimps?

And the last I checked, Mad Men on AMC (Basic Cable) won the Emmy for Best Drama; TBS just paid upwards of $2 million/episode for Big Bang Theory (among others); and the ACE Awards (which was a popular punchline for comedians about FIFTEEN YEARS AGO) haven’t been on the air for FIFTEEN YEARS!

I would also argue that with its scripted reruns and movies, TBS and the other top Basic Cable Channels have better daytime programming than any of the Broadcast Station Groups (unless you like Judge shows) and the primetime lineups are equally as creative and catching up in the ratings.

In fact, Broadcast Networks are deep into the 5 Stages of Grief from “On Death and Dying” – and they have been in denial about Basic Cable for years. Retrans is one final pathetic attempt to stay competitive.

So, Conan, I’m sorry you are stuck on lowly TBS when all your life you dreamed of being on NBC (now worth negative $690 million on NBC Universal’s balance sheet) – but the truth is, in today’s media environment, it’s not which channel you are on but the programming you produce.

Remember, even a show shot in a shack in Palmdale can be relevant (and widely seen) today.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Why doesn’t anyone ever bash MTV for being “Basic Cable”? Just wondering.

November 5, 2010December 9, 2011

Advertise On Facebook – Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls!

Does this mean an ad will cost $40 million dollars per spot?

So, I was just on Facebook – along with 800+ million of my friends (soon to be be 7.3 billion) – and couldn’t help notice the sidebar banner ad pitch to “Advertise On Facebook” (see left).

Now, I’ve never noticed an ad on Facebook. Not one. And I don’t think I’m alone.

So why would I pay anything to advertise on Facebook? Because you can’t afford NOT to have your product or brand in front of 800 MILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS. Right?

Because fear works when you’re pitching your platform to advertising agencies – “You need us more than we need you.” So it’s better to make an expensive ad buy on Facebook, even though no one will see your ad, than to be left behind.

Do they think we’re idiots? At least on television, even if the ad is being skipped in fast motion, you see the product. On Facebook, you don’t even notice the ad and, if you did, you wouldn’t care because you don’t want to see advertising when you’re on Facebook.

The only ad tactic that seems to work on Facebook is the one where hot young girls (old dudes pretending to be hot young girls) to “Friend” guys and then post non-stop about how they “LOVE THEIR NEW NISSAN SENTRA” and how much “The New Coke Zero ROX!”

Let I said before, Facebook, unless they start to charge user fees or do those horribly annoying ads that pop right in your face when you log in, is on the road to becoming worthless.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

November 3, 2010October 10, 2011

Y Combinator Is A Stupid Idea

I wanted to call this entry “Y Combinator Is A Bullshit Idea” but the ads on the side wouldn’t have displayed due to the “bullshit” in the title.

So, I just read the Christopher Steiner article “The Disruptor In The Valley” at Forbes.com (which is about Paul Graham and his company Y Combinator) and I immediately thought of the bit from “The Simpsons” (Season 12 – Episode 9) when Homer is undergoing medical experiments for money. He tries an appetite suppressant:

HOMER: “I’m BLIND!”
SCIENTIST #1: “Who’s gonna buy a pill that makes you blind?”
SCIENTIST #2: “We’ll let marketing worry about that!”

Y Combinator is basically offering Silicon Valley a pill that makes them blind (but marketing will fix it).

They offer a little bit cash to grab a whole lot of equity in these tiny start-ups – most which are not even close to being ready for that kind of exposure (or financial decision).

However, with the right spin, PR and influence behind them, they (apparently) ARE ready for the additional money that others might throw their way (for another giant chunk of equity)… IF they can manage to get through the grueling YC BOOTCAMP.

So many of these companies just aren’t ready and, frankly, just aren’t necessary.

It’s like the YouTube star who gets a small role on “The Big Bang Theory” and can barely speak because they’re so nervous and everyone realizes they have no acting skills whatsoever.

This is not to say that there aren’t a lot of geniuses out there with a lot of great ideas. There are. Most are much smarter than me (but not as smart as Khan Manka, Jr. – I’m under order to say).

But these geniuses (and mostly non-geniuses, let’s be serious) are being exploited by Paul Graham and company and tossed to these VC wolves who will eat many a carcass to get to the next Facebook (which MUST BE STOPPED… but I digress).

Seriously, in another Hollywood analogy, any start-up attempting to get their business going through Y Combinator is like the screenwriter in Los Angeles who will pay people to read their script because they “work at a studio.”

The chances of success in one of these cattle call models is virtually zero.

Zero for everyone except Paul Graham (and partners).

As a quick primer, allow me a paragraph (from Wikipedia) to explain Y Combinator to those who may not know what it is:

Y Combinator is an American seed-stage startup funding firm, started in 2005 by Paul Graham, Robert Morris, Trevor Blackwell, and Jessica Livingston. Y Combinator provides seed money, advice, and connections at 3-month programs. In exchange, they take an average of about 6% of the company’s equity.

Compared to other startup funds, Y Combinator provides very little money ($17,000 for startups with two founders and $20,000 for those of three or more). This reflects Graham’s theory that between free software, dynamic languages, the web, and Moore’s Law, the cost of founding a startup has greatly decreased.

In other words, throw a bunch of shit on the wall and see what sticks.

Great for Paul Graham (based on his idea, Y Combinator would have gotten $20,000 from Y Combinator), but terrible for almost all of those thousands who apply to his program every year just in the hope of getting the YC stamp of approval (and 60 lbs of chili).

So Y Combinator is a Venture Capitalist that funds your start-up so that your start-up can get funded by another Venture Capitalist.

Enough with these f-ing VCs, man.

Whatever happened to creating a company, becoming successful and growing it based on that initial success?

Success because you have a product that people really (REALLY) want.

Thousands of techies are just sitting around coffee shops and cafes in all the “Silicon Valleys of the world” trying to think up new ideas that Paul Graham (and others like him) might like.

Not because it’s an idea that the start-up founder actually believes in anymore – but because it’s one that might get funding.

I mean, fuck passion, right?

These days it’s not whether your company succeeds or fails, it’s whether it gets funded in the first place and a mention on TechCrunch.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Also Digg is dead – R.I.P. – so is Electus and Comic-Con… but I digress… again.

October 28, 2010December 13, 2012

Fanboys Would Like Fat Peter Jackson To Direct “The Hobbit”

Dear Peter Jackson,

Please eat.

I’ve been speaking to some fanboys (and girls) and they would prefer that a fat Peter Jackson directs “The Hobbit” rather than the less creative skinny Peter Jackson.

With the Holidays coming up, there is plenty of opportunity for you to pack on at least 50 pounds before film production begins next year.

Based on the great sacrifice your country has made to make sure ‘The Hobbit’ is made in New Zealand, there is a lot at stake. The least you can do is have a few extra helpings of lasagna and eggnog to ensure that the finished product is more “Lord of the Rings” and less “Lovely Bones”.

Craft Services is your friend – less salad and more empty calories, please (Red Vines and donuts are good). And alcohol. Lots of alcohol.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

October 21, 2010April 3, 2011

Juan Williams Had TWO JOBS!

Remember, whichever side you are on in this debate, Juan Williams had TWO JOBS during the worst economy since the Great Depression when so many people out there can’t even get ONE JOB.

I think it was good of NPR to fire Juan Williams if only for the simple fact that they can now hire an out of work Political Commentator who can get off the public dole.

Interesting that Fox News would reward a guy with a $2 million dollar contract who basically said that Muslims who are dressed as their religion requires(!!) make him nervous on an airplane.

Juan Williams perfectly fits the mold of the “Fox News Liberal”.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

October 8, 2010April 11, 2011

Digg – R.I.P.

Lesson #1: If Google offers you $200 million for a business that has no real focus or vision – TAKE IT.

Lesson #2: If the due diligence doesn’t back up a $200 million valuation and someone else offers you $80 million – TAKE IT.

Lesson #3: If you ignore Lessons #1 and #2 and decide to redesign your very popular (but unprofitable) website – MAKE SURE IT DOESN’T SUCK.

Lesson #4: If the redesign of the website sucks and the entire world complains – DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Lesson #5: If Lesson #4 is ignored and senior management continues to party like its 2006, YOUR COMPANY IS DYING.

Lesson #6: If your company is dying and you don’t have the cure, LET IT DIE WITH DIGNITY AND START OVER.

I’m afraid we’re at Lesson #6.

DIGG IS DEAD – R.I.P.

If only the Business Week cover from 2006 were true.

While many of the employees of Digg will find it difficult to start over, the founders and senior management team probably will not. Especially Kevin Rose, who is an early investor in Twitter and Zynga. So don’t cry for dude. Dude is fine.

Now I’ve Dugg many stories over the years – mostly an endless link-fest of Slide Shows and Superhero complaints – but it’s time to move on.

I suppose I’ll just have to “Like” instead of “Digg” (until Facebook becomes worthless – and they are on that path!). After that, I’ll probably have to “Shout Out” or “Yeah, Baby” or whatever other little button some company wants me to click whenever I like the new taste of Coke Zero.

“Digg” was cool and nobody can take 2006-2008 away from you guys. That was your time!

So long Kevin, Matt and Jay – who cares if you’re not Billionaires? Remember, Millionaires can still get chicks and buy drinks at any bar in the world.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

October 7, 2010April 11, 2011

Disney Junior – EUREKA!

So, it was announced today that Playhouse Disney will become Disney Junior. The folks at Disney Corporate must have put in quite a bit of overtime on that one.

It’s a stroke of brilliance really – just as I thought it was brilliant when Viacom changed Noggin to Nick Jr. last year!

Bravo to Disney’s Brand Consultants who, most likely, put in extremely long hours and probably weren’t cheap.

I can imagine conference calls, late night food deliveries and logo designs on several other names like Disney Tots, Disney Ragamuffins, ToddlerDisney, Disney 2-7 (or ‘The D27!’)… before finally reaching the stroke of genius that is Disney Junior.

And I’m sure it was a tense few days before Bob Iger finally signed off on it. During the presentation, he probably said things like “Disney Junior? Really? Isn’t Junior a term for boys? Nickelodeon did it? OK, go ahead.” And that was that. Disney Junior will launch in 2012!

Being a parent of a five year old, I am not cynical about children’s programming and appreciate the big media companies producing so much content that distracts my child long enough so I can take a five minute break to go to the bathroom (including my own parent company Manka Bros. and our Manka Kids brand – Manka Junior anyone?).

I just think with all the millions of dollars being thrown around at media companies on Brand Management, it’s nice to know that all anyone needs to do to brand something for toddlers it to put the word “Junior” behind it. Clorox Junior, Coke Junior (with 40% less sugar), 1976 Chateau Lafite Rothschild Junior (for French children)…

Maybe I’ll launch OnMedea Junior for toddlers who want to read scandalous corporate media stories about “Dora the Explorer”.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea