Jay Leno's Big Night
Tonight is either beginning of the end of NBC or the beginning of a new television business model. I'm betting BIG on the former. It will be interesting to follow The Jay Leno Show's ratings for about a week and then the media will become bored reporting that Jay's numbers were, once again, 5.3 with a 7 share (2.3 / 4 18-49). But at least for tonight, it's interesting.
All I can say is - Good Luck, Jay. You'll still be a rich and successful man even though you are now the face of dying network. (In truth, broadcast networks are already dead... but I digress.)
My predictions on how the NBC promotions department will spin tomorrow's ratings:
- Remember, this is a marathon, not a sprint.
- Because of the low production costs, we don't need home run ratings to make a big profit.
- Considering Jay was opposite the premiere of Monday Night Football, he did very well.
- Obviously, we were hoping for a much bigger number, but we firmly believe that the audience will grow once kids have adjusted to returning to school.
- Even though it was National Cream Filled Donut Day, we posted very strong numbers.
- If we would have known this was the date that Grace Kelly died in a car crash (in 1982), we probably would have waited to premiere Jay's show.
- There may have been some confusion by those people who haven't adapted to the Gregorian calendar.
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About Jill Kennedy
Jill Kennedy is an Ivy League MBA / refugee from Lehman Brothers.
Manka Bros. (and the Manka Business Channel) hired her (for a very low sum) to cover the world of media (not the world of Medea) in her own words without corporate inteference.
About Medea
Medea was a real bitch from classical mythology - as most famously dramatized by Euripides.
She was a sorceress and wife of Jason, whom she assisted in obtaining the Golden Fleece. When Jason deserted her, she chopped up their children. One could say, Medea acted as rationally as a major media company.
Tips, Scoops and Smoking Guns
I'm been celebrating national cream filled donut day for the past month.
Kanye West is going to be on tonight. That should give Jay a little bump with the younger crowd. I'm sure he'll be apologizing (again) for ruining Taylor Swift's VMA moment.
You watch. This is going to work beautifully. Other networks will change their programming based on Jay's success.
Not bad opening night for Jay. It's all about tonight and the rest of the week...
Leno Ratings: 17.7 Million Viewers, Decent Demos
Jay Leno got plenty of sampling Monday night with his new NBC primetime show -- especially among older viewers-- drawing roughly 17.7 million viewers a 5.1 rating/13 share in adults 18-49. according to preliminary fast national data from Nielsen.
The disparity between the huge overall number and the strong, but not amazing demo rate, indicates Leno is drawing an older audience than usual primetime fare. Indeed, among adults over 50, the NBC show notched a massive 10.8 rating -- a number that would make CBS sales people faint from happiness.
A number that will no doubt delight local affiliates: 6.2/15. That's what Leno scored with adults 25-54, the demo most important for news ratings. At least on Monday, many NBC stations were probably very happy to have Leno at 10.
There was also clearly some curiousity tune-in: Leno lost several hundred thousand viewers at the half-hour (but built a tad in the demo).
Giving Leno a big boost: Strong tune-in for one of the final episodes of "America's Got Talent," which in its final half-hour (9:30-10 p.m.) drew well over 15 million viewers. That's a lead-in Leno is unlikely to get from, say, "Trauma."
By comparison, last year, NBC's "My Own Worst Enemy" earned a 3.0 demo rating/8 share and 7.3 million viewers in the 10 p.m. Monday slot. It premiered in mid-October, opposite tougher competition than Leno faced last night.
NBC kicked off Mondays last September with a two-hour "Heroes," which averaged a 4.9/12 in the demo and 9.9 million viewers.
Of course, "Heroes" and "My Own" were both much more expensive to produce per hour than Leno.
Also having a great night: The CW, which saw strong tune-in for "One Tree Hill" and "Gossip Girl."
"GG," in its new 9 p.m. slot, notched its best women 18-34 number (3.3/8) since last December and matched its 2008 fall debut.
That's not too bad. Especially the 18-49. I would imagine it will drop by 50% in the coming weeks.
Awful. It was just awful. The Seinfeld stuff might have been funny 15 years ago.
I missed the show! First we had our family's ceremony to honor Grace Kelly with some gambling and a few cocktails. The the donut throw competition began and it went into overtime.
Maybe next week we will catch Leno. He's on once a week, right?
No, Rick, unfortunately, Jay's on 5 nights a week. It was painful to watch one.
It's now unwatchable and not even close to destination TV. I don't care who the guests are, I'm done with it.