It’s my shortest blog of the year – but I think the point is solid.
Here’s just one of the many reasons from NYMAG.com
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Lloyd Blankfein Is A Douche
Marissa Mayer Needs To Get Her Voice Back
The title is not some abstract reference for reconnecting with a global vision…
She LITERALLY needs to get her voice back.
I’m not sure I can listen to another interview with that raspy, unhealthy voice.
And here’s one of the more recent interviews…
Seriously, Marissa, the company (and your baby) will be just fine if you just don’t talk for a few weeks.
You must rest your voice or you will be talking like Harvey Fierstein before too long.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
I’m Back
The first draft of my book is finished (more on that in the coming weeks) and I am back on the job here at OnMedea.
It was an excellent summer with lots of quiet and lots of work.
Other than the entire media spectrum going to Hell in a handbasket, there really is nothing much going on.
Movie studios are imploding and on their current tract will produce fewer and fewer quality films while continuing to bore audiences around the world with sequel after sequel after sequel. Don’t the studio bosses know that the Tentpole Is Dead?!
My parent company, Manka Bros., is apparently abandoning original films altogether.
That’s one sure-fire way to kill your business (with all due respect).
Broadcast networks continue on their painfully slow journey to complete irrelevance. (Thank God for football, huh?)
I declared them dead a couple of years ago but they are still on life support – though brain dead.
Oh, yeah, and we’re about to go to war. The world is, frankly, in chaos. My colleague Lester Aldrich wrote a thoughtful piece on the prospect of going to war from his own perspective as an 88-year-old man who has been through two wars.
But I digress… happy to be back. Have a great weekend.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
The Death Of The Tentpole Film
Hollywood doesn’t need to panic yet – but the powers that be should seriously start thinking about changing film slate strategies.
This is great news for filmmakers, terrible news for Hollywood’s bottom line.
Tentpole movies, when they work, print money for years and years and years – through sequels and licensing, etc. etc.
But, like what happens with obesity, if you give someone a double-quarter pounder meal with super-sized fries every once in a while – it probably won’t make you fat.
If you give someone that meal every freakin’ day for the rest of their lives – they’ll be fat and die much sooner than is necessary.
Hollywood studios have booked a tentpole movie practically every weekend for the next five years.
This is unsustainable and only a matter time before audiences yell bullshit, back away from the Big Mac and change their diet.
This is not to say that these movies are going away completely. There is always an appetite for a great event film spectacle. When they hit, it’s the greatest experience. And I hope that never goes away.
But everything can’t be a tentpole.
Yesterday, I saw the Deadline.com story on Disney’s announced animation slate (see picture).
Personally, I CANNOT WAIT for “Untitled Disney Animation Movie 2017!” And I really can’t wait for the Untitled Toy that my daughter will want.
Studios, especially on the live-action side, have no idea which movies are going to rise up from the pile to get a greenlight five years in advance.
They just know that they have to make 5-6 tentpole movies a year to hit their revenue and profit targets. You can’t make a decent budget projection if you have slated “Silver Linings Playbook 2” or the next film from Alexander Payne.
Tentpoles are necessary for financial planning. But it’s become so much of a science and so NOT much of a creative endeavor that I fear they are suffocating the goose that’s been laying the golden eggs for the past 10 years.
And, seriously, audiences just can’t take it anymore.
They aren’t crying for “Marvel Character #1,000” to finally have his or her own movie!
“Remember that character that cleaned the floors in ‘The Amazing Spider-man Comics #43’? He totally needs his own movie!”
But Hollywood thinks it can do it and that audiences will keep lapping it up.
And this summer, they will – Â “Man Of Steel” and “Pacific Rim” both look fantastic and I’ll be seeing them both on opening weekends with millions of others.
Again, Hollywood doesn’t need to panic yet.
I wrote a couple of years ago that audiences will never tire of super heroes – that the characters who are shoved quickly into movies should not be blamed for the failures of mortal film executives and writers to tell their stories well.
But there is only so much heavy lifting these characters can do – they’re superheroes, they’re not God.
It’s time for Hollywood to take more risks, be more experimental, have more fun. Don’t be afraid to fail.
Film production IS McDonalds these days. The food looks and tastes exactly the same every time (and, sure, there is some comfort in that). But when was the last time you heard an employee at McDonalds say their job was fun and totally creative?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
The New York Post Gets It Wrong… Again
Seriously, what is their problem?
Just because some guy says 12 are dead – doesn’t mean you post it. Even Rupert Murdoch should know that (maybe not).
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Aereo Will Fail
Make no mistake – there is no chance Aereo will survive longer than two or three years. That’s a best-case scenario.
Broadcast Networks are dying (it’s true) and will be dead in their current form within five years.
In five years, who is going to pay $8 a month for nothing?
Where are all those little antennas going to go once Broadcast Networks cease to exist?
What sort of business launches with this sort of insane hype that, at most, will only exist for five years?
A Barry Diller company, of course.
The only useful purpose Aereo has is that it will play a part in hastening the inevitable demise of Broadcast Networks.
That’s something, I guess.
I wrote a couple of years ago that Broadcast Networks were in denial (BROADCAST NETWORKS: ON DEATH AND DYING – April 1, 2011). That the executives were longing for the old days of The Big Five.
Now they’re just trying to survive at any cost.
New shows aren’t working. The upfronts next month will be terrible (regardless of what the networks will actually say in their trumped up press releases and over-the-top presentations).
But things aren’t completely dire.
Chase Carey has the right idea but he shouldn’t say that he’ll make FOX a cable channel as a threat to Aereo. He should make FOX a cable channel because it would be a good business decision. It’s really the ONLY business decision.
It is time for Broadcast Networks to accept that the world has changed. “The Mary Tyler Moore Show” is no longer the number one show. And new shows like “How To Live With Your Parents (For The Rest Of Your Life)” will not save you now.
Basic cable and becoming just another button on the infinite media grid of the future is the only chance ABC, CBS, MBS, NBC and FOX Â have to survive.
Love him or hate him (most hate him), Barry Diller has, once again, disrupted an industry in desperate need of change.
If he wasn’t so gooey I would be cheering him on.
For $20 million dollars, he is forcing a $50 billion industry to join the 21st century. Now that’s getting a bang for your buck.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – Who knew Barry Diller enjoyed fishing so much? Here’s a great story of a recent fishing trip.
Stuck Between Old and New Media
Hollywood is stuck.
New York is stuck.
Silicon Valley is stuck.
No one can really do anything too exciting because old media is still hanging around – refusing to give up the crown.
Don’t get me wrong – OLD MEDIA IS DYING – but they’re not dead yet.
DVDs are dying – but they’re not dead yet.
We can assume that digital downloads and streaming will be the format of choice in the future – but we don’t know how it will all be quantified. Will people buy digital movies and store them in the cloud using UltraViolet and iTunes or just rent from Redbox and subscribe to Netflix?
Broadcast Networks ARE dying – but they’re not dead yet.
Will YouTube become a go to destination for entertainment on par with broadcast and cable channels? OK, that’s easy – YES – and soon.
Will Netflix realize its dream and become another HBO? Probably not. Just because “House of Cards” sort of works doesn’t mean the next five or ten shows will.
Printed books are dying – but they’re not dead yet. Will eBooks be enough to sustain an entire industry? (And Gay Moroccan Poetry definitely isn’t going to turn things around.)
Magazines are dying – YEP, they’re pretty much dead. And the online future of magazines isn’t bright at all.
Same with printed newspapers. And newspapers online will not be able to cover the costs at their current levels – so look for further contraction of that industry.
Theatrical Distribution of movies and events is most likely here to stay when many thought a couple of years ago that the format would die (though 3D WILL die).
Even Facebook and LinkedIn feel like old school media companies that are wearing out their welcome. They’ll eventually go out of business. In the meantime, they’ll just stick around and be as boring as ever.
How crazy is it that the Music Industry almost seems relatively healthy (after a decade of torture and pain)? As horrible as was, at least they’ve made the transition to digital – and now, though smaller, they’re actually growing again. But for how long? Nobody knows.
It’s limbo.
We can’t see what the future will be because the past won’t go away.
Too many unanswered questions.
With everything so completely up in the air, it’s a terrible time to be in the media business.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
2013: Endgame For Moguls
Old Hollywood just got another year older and closer to death.
In fact, it’s getting harder and harder for Old Hollywood to get out of bed in the morning.
Food doesn’t taste as good. Hangovers are a daily occurrence.
In short, Old Hollywood is not well.
And with each passing year, as movie studios and broadcast networks become increasingly irrelevant, my thoughts are about real estate.
What is going to happen to all those soundstages and sprawling campuses scattered around Los Angeles and the world when no one needs them anymore?
Soundstages built in the early 20th century by visionaries from Poland, Hungary, New York and Kansas City.
Clearly they won’t be used as much in the future as production costs for high quality content continue to drop and new visionary kids from everywhere else in the world are able to compete head-to-head with the best Hollywood writers and directors.
Perhaps they will be torn down and apartments built. But apartments in those areas are for young writers and actors who move to L.A. to chase that Hollywood dream.
They don’t have to move here anymore.
Perhaps one studio will be turned into a museum of what Hollywood used to look like.
It’s a lot of land, man, and the shopping mall business isn’t so good these days either.
It’s going to be a real problem one day.
As I said earlier this year, YouTube’s Original Content Strategy Is Working and that should put every remaining media mogul on high alert.
The 1975 when millions of families crowded the television on a SATURDAY NIGHT to watch one of the three networks is over.
Now, in all likelihood, a family of five is watching or doing five different things on a Saturday night (and the rest of the week for that matter).
And this has been true for a few years.
In 2013, another profound and symbolic pillar will crumble in the epic story of the Decline and Fall of the Hollywood Empire.
The Mogul.
2013 will see most of the remaining media moguls pathetically fade away from relevance with little fanfare. And that’s sad.
WHO IS LEAVING?
1. Sumner Redstone – Many would say he has already left (despite his attempt to look youthful with that shocking sprayed on orange hair). Sumner has desperately clung to power just as he clung to the side of the hotel ledge years ago to survive a fire. Sumner will be the first to leave in 2013 either by death or senility (though many would argue he has been dead and senile for the past 25 years).
2. Rupert Murdoch – Enough with this guy and his phone tapping and continued interest in buying newspapers. He’s done. There is an outside chance the family empire could continue if Rupert appointed his daughter Elisabeth to the top job (I would buy the stock if that happened). But his continue insistence on giving his idiot sons top jobs will, no doubt, destroy all that he spent his entire life building.
3. Barry Diller – Barry Diller is just tired of it all. Does anyone really think he is excited about owning Ben Silverman’s ridiculous company or CollegeHumor or The Daily Beast or Zwinky or Sports Pickle? Sail away, Barry. The media world no longer needs you. You had a good run. Now go get drunk.
4. Jeffrey Katzenberg – The last mogul standing of DreamWorks SKG (one of the last valiant attempts made to build a true media empire like the old days), Katzenberg will sell DreamWorks Animation for a few billion less than he would have hoped and leave the Hollywood scene. He will go on to become equally annoying in the Art Collection scene.
CLINGING TO POWER
1. The Weinstein Brothers (Harvey and Bob) – Despite several high profile movies (Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Django Unchained) that will probably win quite a few awards this season, the Weinsteins are working with a business model from 1985. Attempted diversification into TV, publishing and interactive nearly cost them everything a few years ago. What they know is how to buy, market and get Awards for small to medium sized movies. And we know where that business is headed.
2. Â Ryan Kavanaugh – Calling him a mogul is generous (to say the least). Attempted mogul more like it. For some reason people keep giving him money. Hopefully, that stops soon and he is forced to land his helicopter not in Beverly Hills but somewhere out in Palmdale where he can live out his existence with a few other characters from “Day of the Locust.”
WHO IS STAYING?
Khan Manka, Jr. – Despite horrible performances year-over-year in both film and television (and publishing and music, etc.), Khan Manka, Jr. remains firmly at the top of the world’s largest media company. Even though he publicly states how much he hates the job and would rather be at his house in the Seychelles, he continues to stay year-after-year and I don’t see that changing anytime in the near or far future.
2. Thomas Tull (Legendary) – Even though Legendary is more of a high-end financing and production outfit than a media empire, Tull is eyeing much larger things and has the money to do it. How far he actually takes the media empire concept is the question. Is Legendary a new DreamWorks or actually something that will be successful?
3. Hed family of Rovio (Angry Birds) is the closest thing we have these days to a new generation media mogul (and I wish Raj, Mikael and Niklas Hed nothing but the best. DON’T SELL – BUILD!). Like Walt Disney and George Lucas before them, the Heds have a real chance to build an empire from a single group of characters. Their passion and ambition  is infectious and they see enormous potential while others laugh in their face. The perfect scenario for global conquest.
—————–
So, 2013, endgame for moguls.
The big ones will fall.
Some smaller ones may rise (on a lower scale).
It will never be the same.
Where is Ted Turner when you really need him?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – John Malone and Brian Roberts may be considered moguls in today’s terms. I just find them too boring to write about.
Did David Petraeus Have An Affair or “An Affair”?
Seriously, Fox News?
Seriously, Drudge Report (see headline below)?
Seriously, Rupert Murdoch (Tweeted: Petraeus resignation. Timing, everything suspicious)
So General Petraeus had “an affair” (meaning you don’t believe he had an affair) which caused him to leave the CIA in disgrace?
As much as you would like it to happen, something does not become a scandal before the facts are known – not that that has ever stopped you before.
What IS a scandal is that Fox News and Drudge Report keep trying to create scandals that bring down the President.
I’m sorry but using quote marks to illustrate your non-belief of the story before the facts come out is journalism at its crappiest.
Newsflash to Fox News and company – Your Polls Were Wrong, Barack Obama Is President – suck it up, stop whining and move on.
Here are some of the headlines from high profile news sources after today’s surprising announcement that David Petraeus has resigned as CIA Director following an admission to an extramarital affair:
Yes, Fox News, you might be onto something – David Petraeus is obviously saying he cheated on his wife of 37 years and is throwing his long career and future down the toilet just to cover up for the President’s mistakes in Benghazi.
Get Mitt Romney and Karl Rove on the phone – tell them there is still chance! Ohio is back in play!
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Dueling Fanatics
Two very popular websites and what they posted at exactly 3:00 PM Pacific time today (October 2nd).
The real question going into the debates tomorrow isn’t who will win – Obama or Romney? (FYI, Fox News has already declared Mitt Romney the winner.)
The real question is which website will be able to bring down the candidate they hate before November 6th?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea