Comcast – Page 3

July 21, 2011July 21, 2011

Don’t Blame Superman

Adam Fogelson, Alan Spoon, Alexander von Furstenberg, Amanda Seyfried, Andrew Chang, Angela Bromstad, Anil Ambani, Ann Daly, Anne Globe, Ari Emanuel, Arthur Martinez, Barry Diller, Beastly, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Brad Grey, Brian Roberts, Brothers Grimm, Bryan Lourd, Chase Carey, Clark Hallren, Comic-Con, Craig Ring, Craig Smith, Dan Satterthwaite, David Geffen, David Rosenblatt, Donald R. Keough, Donna Langley, Dreamworks Animation, Edgard Bronfman, Electus, Ezra Kucharz, fairy tale movies, Gemma Arterton, Graham Stanton, Greg Blatt, Greg Morrow, Greg Stevens, Gregg Winiarski, Guillermo Del Toro, Hans Woolley, Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters, Harry Brittenham, Harry Sloan, Heather O'Conner, Hey Diddle Diddle, Holly Bario, Jack the Giant Killer, Jason Stewart, Jay Herratti, Jeff Sagansky, Jeff Small, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Jeremy Renner, Jill Kennedy, Joanne Hawkins, Joey Levin, John Batter, John C. Malone, John Ferriter, John Foley, John Malone, Josh Abramson, Jr., Judson Green, Kara Swisher, Khan Manka, Lew Coleman, Louis Castle, Manka Bros., Mark Sourian, Mark Stein, Melody Hobson, Michael Eisner, Michael J. Montgomery, Michael Schwerdtman, Michael Zeisser, Nathan Myhrvold, Nikki Finke, Notional, On Medea, OnMedea, Paul Allen, Paul Telegdy, Peter Chernin, Phillippe Dauman, Pinnochio, Red Riding Hood, Reliance ADA Group, Rich Sullivan, Richard F. Zannino, Richard Sherman, Rick Finkelstein, Ricky Van Veen, Roger Enrico, Ron Meyer, Rupert Murdoch, Scott Garell, Scott Savitz, Shana Fisher, Sharon Waxman, Snow White and the Seven, Stacey Snider, Steve Burke, Steve Jobs, Steven Spielberg, Strauss Zelnick, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, Thomas Freston, Thomas J. McInerney, Tina Brown, Tony DiSanto, Victor Kaufman, Walt Disney

Today, I read an analyst report written by Vasily Karasyov of Susquehanna Financial Group titled “The Death of Superheroes”.

Salacious title? Certainly.

A title that would get the attention of every media executive around the world? Absolutely.

A title that’s total bullshit? Definitely.

According to this report, over the past ten years movie studios have plucked 16 superheroes (or super groups) from the obscurity of the basements of geeks and put them smack dab in the global spotlight for everyone to see.

Some have been really good, made lots of money and spawned sequels, rebirths and regurgitations (e.g., “Spider-Man”, “Batman”, “Iron Man”, “X-Men”).

Others were shit and lost a lot of money (basically the rest of them).

For the most part, that’s the way it’s supposed to work. Good = success. Bad = no success.

Over that same time, about 2,000 other movies were released to varying degrees of success. These included huge non-comic book movies like “Harry Potter”, “Lord of the Rings”, “Pirates of the Caribbean”, “The Hangover”, and, sure, even Woody Allen’s biggest hit ever “Midnight In Paris”.

So while it seems every other movie that comes out is a comic book movie, nothing could be further from the truth. But that’s not the point I want to make.

Here’s the point: People are not tired of Superheroes. You cannot blame the superhero for the failure of corporate mortals.

If every comic book/superhero movie were unbelievably great, audiences would flock to them and they would all be huge hits.

Seriously, if the studios would have put out 16 awesome, well-made, true to the source comic book movies, they would have had, guaranteed, 16 big hit, profitable movies.

But this didn’t happen and it never will happen. Why? Because movie studios always try to make good movies. Regardless of what some people think, the executives at movie studios are not trying to suck.

Every movie that is made (with all those millions of dollars at stake) start off with a single dream – to be really good and to make money (maybe not in that order). Everyone, at every level, works very hard to make these films as good as humanly possible.

But somewhere along the chain – from concept to the day of release – something happens to make them suck.

And in most cases, lots of things happen to make them suck.

The movie-making process is subjective. One person’s gold is another person’s shit.

What Hollywood IS GUILTY OF is genre rape.

Once one high-concept or genre film hits it really big (i.e., “Alice In Wonderland”) suddenly every studio in town needs to have that high-concept or genre type film in the pipeline ASAP.

Because of “Alice In Wonderland”, over the past year every studio had to have as many fairy tale scripts as they get their hands on including THREE FREAKIN’ “SNOW WHITES”!

My God, even Manka Bros. – my studio – bought the rights to “Hey Diddle Diddle” and plans to spend well over $150 million to produce something we know will fail. Sorry, boss.

Go down any list of genre and you’ll see one movie that started the entire feeding frenzy. “Scream” spawned hundreds of crappy horror movies. “Harry Potter” got everyone out there trying to find the next great children’s fantasy series. Vampires, zombies… it’s just a case of mass brainlessness.

But here’s the shocker. What do I think needs to be changed? Nothing.

Movies should continue to be made and they should be made as well as possible.

Some should be based on comic books because it’s really great source material.

Others should be based on the Bible, or Dickens or Broadway . Because it’s really great source material.

And yet others should be based on ideas people think up on their own (imagine that!) – because the brain is capable of coming up with a really great source material.

“Hollywood” isn’t broken and the Superhero isn’t dead (Christopher Nolan could turn any deep catalog comic book character into a franchise – even something like “Gerbil Girl”) – everyone involved in the process just needs to concentrate more on entertaining the audience and less on just filling a summer slot.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Why the hell is “Glee” at Comic-Con? If you want to talk about something that’s dead… it’s Comic-Con. And IT WAS killed by the movie studios. If you want a good laugh, read the transcript from Khan Manka, Jr.’s keynote address to last year’s Comic-Con.

July 1, 2011July 11, 2011

AMC Networks Had An IPO Today…

Manka Bros., Khan Manka, OnMedea, Jill Kennedy, AMC Networks, Zynga, LinkedIn, Jeff Weiner, Reid Hoffman, Mark Zuckerberg, Sheryl Sandberg, Charles Dolon, Joshua Sapan, Edward Carroll, Sean Sullivan, James Gallagher, John Giraldo, Neil Ashe, Alan Schwartz, Dr. Leonard Tow, Robert Wright, William J. Bell, Charles F. Dolan, James L. Dolan, Kristin A. Dolan, Patrick F. Dolan, Thomas C. Dolan, Brian G. Sweeney, Marianne Dolan Weber, Rob Battles, Bob Broussard, Mike DiPasquale, David Evans, John Huffman, Ellen Kroner, Steven Pontillo, Thomas Ziangas, Charlie Collier, Evan Shapiro, Jennifer Caserta, Sarah Barnett, Kim Martin, Jonathan Sehring, Arlene Manos, John Barbieri, Harold Gronenthal, Ed Palluth, Mark Pincus, Cadir Lee, Dave Wehner, Reggie Davis, John Schappert, Owen Van Natta, Dave Ko, Colleen McCreary, Mike Verdu, Steven Chiang, Bing Gordon, Brad Feld, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Reid Hoffman, Mad Men, Don Draper, Jon Hamm, internet IPO, internet bubble 2.0

… and Wall Street shrugged.

Zynga announces a $1 billion IPO and every freakin’ investment bank in New York is clambering to get in on it.

These are the very same banks that were recently slobbering all over LinkedIn and would most likely kill anyone who tries to stop them from getting in on the Facebook IPO.

What am I missing here?

AMC Networks (AMC, IFC, WE, Sundance) represents highly-regarded premium television content (Mad Men, Breaking Bad, The Killing, Walking Dead, etc.) – the kind of content Hollywood needs people to watch. The kind of content only Hollywood can make. And the kind of content people really love.

Sounds likes a win win win. And a buy buy buy.

Zynga represents little $1 digital pigs for sale in Farmville. Not what you would call premium content.

Sounds like a lose lose lose.

“Mad Men” or “Digital Pig”? AMC Networks or Zynga? Which would you imagine to be the Wall Street darling?

Cable Networks (and their two strong revenue streams) are the bread and butter of giant media corporations.

If Wall Street shrugs at a pure-play cable network spin-off like AMC Networks, what does that say about the future of old-school big media? Being an employee of old-school big media, I’m not sure I like what that says.

Should they adapt to the changing (but unproven) business models and stop distributing quality content – focusing instead on selling little digital versions of Don Draper for $1? Or should they continue to do what they best until they simply disappear because their audiences die of old age?

Personally, I blame the whole VC/Y Combinator mentally for creating this unearned enthusiasm for certain companies that are, when you really look at them and see what they produce, pretty boring, uninspired and a waste of time.

But more billionaires will be minted – and I suppose that’s ‘End Game’.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

April 29, 2011April 29, 2011

Unattractive Women Have Zero Chance In Hollywood…

… and New York, for that matter. And I’m talking about WRITERS!

Of course, there are some small roles in film and television that are played by unattractive female actresses (the psychotic neighbor, the diner waitress, the homeless woman, the awkward teen friend, etc.) – and we sort of understand why ‘on-camera’ talent has to have a certain look.

But writers? Why do they have to look a certain way? They just have to be able to write. Right? Quasimodo should be able to make it in this town – that is, if Quasimodo was a really good writer. Is that naive?

Being fairly new to L.A., I was shocked to learn that the new crop of budding female screenwriters (those under 30) are freakin’ hot. And, of the females out there writing (and there are millions), the hot ones seem to be the only ones getting meetings.

There is a very high profile production company down the hall from my office which receives a good amount of foot traffic from writers pitching script ideas. The males that come in are pretty much all unattractive, unkempt and fat (the standard male screenwriter uniform of baseball cap – [Cubs preferably], shorts and a giant t-shirt is a cliche… but in this case, a true cliche). [Note: If the male screenwriter becomes successful, then his body changes – he’s still unattractive but now he’s ‘kempt’ and very much in shape. Success leads to getting laid, getting laid leads to getting in shape.]

The female writers that come in are all hot. There’s not one Wendy Wasserstein in the bunch. Some wear glasses to have that ‘smart’ look – but they all accentuate their boobs and have a nice tight ass. Perhaps this current wave of new writers was influenced in some way by Scriptgirl411. Even though ScriptGirl is mostly satire, there is a certain fantasy that male producers have (and have had since Hollywood began) and she hits it right on the head.

Female screenwriters make up a extremely low percentage of screenplays written in this town (oh, let’s say 2%, though accurate data is very hard to come by) – so I suppose when male producers feel they need to hire a female to give the script a ‘certain voice’, being the shallow boys that they are, they would prefer to spend all that time with someone hot. That’s pretty much the way this town works in every area of entertainment (even catering… thank you Giada De Laurentiis!).

I do believe this is just a fad and it will change once some of the beautiful but untalented writers start to get screen credits and the movies fail at the box office. Talent will win the day – much as it did for older male screenwriters who were shut out in the 90s for younger guys right out of film school.

Today, it doesn’t seem to matter how old a male writer is, the quality of the script seems to win out. This is mainly due to the low number of projects being greenlit and the low tolerance for bad writing. Top male executives (and a couple of females) at production companies and studios can no longer take a chance on being the “cutting edge” type or “trend setting”. In today’s economy, their jobs and bonuses are very much on the line – so they’d better get it right (write).

However, it’s funny, but when it’s a hot, young, female screenwriter, film executives have an amazing tolerance for bad writing. This, too, will change.

Talent will win the day – though it’s much easier to get tits in the door than a foot.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 18, 2011April 11, 2011

Not ANOTHER Fairy Tale Ending

Once upon a time, Hollywood was creatively bankrupt… again. The year was 2011 and poor little Hollywood didn’t know what kind of movies to make.

The heads of the major studios (including Manka Bros. – the owner of OnMedea) knew that a film adaptation of the fairy tale “Alice In Wonderland” made over $1 billion at the box office in 2010 and said “That’s a lot of money.”

So after much thought (or not), Hollywood decided to make EVERY FREAKING FAIRY TALE EVER WRITTEN INTO A MAJOR MOTION PICTURE!

Come on, really?

Every day, I read about another studio doing another fairy tale adaption. And all of them are a DARK, GRITTY version that the “19th century authors originally had in mind”.

Not a fluffy Hollywood squeaky clean version that doesn’t scare our whimpy modern day kids – but a frightening and bloody tale like children used to experience when kids were tough and enjoyed waking up screaming from a horrifying nightmare because of the bedtime story they were read.

To be fair, I think it was a great idea to reimagine Red Riding Hood with a darker tone – which is certainly fitting of the story. And while the trailer looks like a cross between a perfume ad and Twilight, I still believe it’s a solid original concept and should result in strong box office. (I’ll certainly be there opening weekend.)

But then came a fairy tale adaptation tsunami (which includes 3 SNOW WHITES!) that has now completely flooded the town.

Here’s a sampling of what’s coming up:

Jack the Giant Killer (Warner Bros.) – a gritty modern day reimagining of the classic tale.

The Brothers Grimm: Snow White (Relativity) – gritty reimagining starring Julia Roberts as the Wicked Queen.

Snow White and The Huntsman (Universal) – gritty reimagining starring Charlize Theron as the Wicked Queen.

Snow White and The Seven (Disney) – sweet, no gritty, set in 19th century China.

Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters (Paramount) – Starring Jeremy Renner, Gemma Arterton (and, no doubt, various star cameos), H&G are now accomplished bounty hunters out to get the witches who nearly killed them years before.

Beastly (CBS Films) – Beauty & The Beast set in high school. I don’t expect much from this one as I’ve already predicted the death of CBS Films in a previous blog.

Pinnochio 3D – a stop motion reimagining of the classic fairy tale. Expect a very dark and disturbing retake on this one as it comes from the genius mind of Guillermo Del Toro. I can already imagine losing sleep after I witness the stop motion, painful transformation of the children into donkeys sequence.

Hey Diddle Diddle (Manka Bros.) – a grim reimagining of the classic bedtime ditty set during the 1930s in a Soviet Union gulag. Why does the cow jump over the moon? Freedom.

Grimm (NBC) – Gritty TV cop drama set in a world where the characters of Grimm’s Fairy Tales actually exist.

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And that’s just in the next couple of years. Just think if these projects make money what we’ll see next:

Pat the Bunny – set in a post-apocalyptic cannibalistic world.

Rumpelstiltskin – featuring the beloved garden Gnomes from Gnomeo & Juliet in their first R-rated turn.

If You Give A Mouse A Cookie – rewritten with darker twists and turns so that it ends in murder.

Etc. etc. etc.

And the sad reality is, I won’t be able to take my five year old daughter to one of them because, if I did, she would wake up screaming in the middle of the night after witnessing Snow White disembowel one of the dwarfs (or something).

But I guess these movies aren’t made for her. They’re Fairy Tales – they’re not made for children for Christ’s sake. They’re made for the guys who go to Comic-Con. And THEY lived happily ever after.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

December 8, 2010April 20, 2011

Kagan’s NBCU Deal Value Allocation

Deep-down, I believe almost everything Kagan puts out is bullshit. Entertainment industry projections that are almost never right.

However, I had to give pause when I saw this chart regarding Comcast’s NBC Universal purchase. If you’re an old media mogul, this chart should scare the living piss out of you (which for Sumner Redstone may be a healthy thing).

What Kagan is saying in this chart (and what I have believed for about a year now) is that Broadcast Networks are dead. JUST LOOK AT THOSE VALUATIONS! $1.7 Billion gets you NBC AND Telemundo. WTF? (That price would get you around 30% of USA Network.)

Seriously, there is no purpose for a broadcast network anymore. It’s old media moguls trying to hold on to the old days. I hate to break to you guys… it’s over. Martinis at The Smoke House and a show with a 40 share is fantastic… but it’s over. Move on.

Steps should taken immediately to convert NBC to a basic cable channel (two revenue streams – come on, Jeff, mmmm – tasty). Do this and NBC would, overnight, become the most popular cable channel on TV (until CBS converts).

Andy Forssell, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Arthur Block, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Brad Grey, Brian Roberts, Chadwick Ho, Comcast, copyrights, David Cohen, Dr. Judith Rodin, Edward Breen, Eric Feng, Fancast, Galen Warren, Gerald Hassell, Hulu, intellectual property, J. Michael Cook, James Record, Jason Kilar, Jean-Paul Colaco, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Honickman, Jill Kennedy, Joe Collins, Johannes Larcher, Julian Brodsky, Kenneth Bacon, Khan Manka, Lawrence Salva, Manka Bros., Michael Angelakis, Michael Sovern, Mike Chin, Nate Haskins, NBCU Deal Value Allocation, Nick Cafferillo, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Ralph Roberts, Reid Nagle, Rupert Murdoch, S. Decker Anstrom, Sheldon M. Bonovitz, SNL Kagan, Stephen Burke, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, Theresa Torian, Tom Corbitt, Tom Fuelling, Will Pappas

What this chart says that I completely don’t believe (and DON’T WANT to believe) is that Intellectual Property is dead (film and television production and libraries). That’s insane! Does Kagan seriously think we’re heading for a future when content owners are no longer in charge?

If Disney, Warner Bros., Fox, Paramount, Universal and Sony lose the ability to further exploit, in any meaningful way, their owned, copyrighted, fully-amortized content that they’ve acquired and produced over the past several decades – these companies are basically worthless. A declining asset with no chance to recover.

Now, for the sake of my parent company, Manka Bros. Studios – The World’s Largest Media Company (thus, the company with the most to lose), I hope Kagan is wrong (like they normally are). But, if Kagan is right, and we realize a future where studio libraries cost more to manage than they bring in and broadcast networks lose more and more market share to cable networks, who among us are going to survive?

Personally, I remain bullish on content and the future of intellectual property. HOLD ON TO THOSE COPYRIGHTS, MEDIA COMPANIES!

A cable channel (even with two revenue streams) is nothing but a pipe into the home. A convenience, yes. A necessity, no. The water, not the pipe, is what sustains life.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 22, 2010April 6, 2011

Jay Leno and Sarah Palin

Love him or hate him, there is a reason Jay Leno has been #1 and will soon be #1 again in the late night wars.

He will book anyone necessary to get ratings – as evidenced by the top guest on his second night back – Ms. Sarah Palin.

Add to the mix Shaun White, Lindsey Vonn, Apolo Ohno, Brad Paisley, the cast of Jersey Shore and I think it’s game over for Dave as soon as Jay returns. The Letterman vs. Leno battle will last all but one week.

It’s even possible that by week two most people will have forgotten there ever was a ‘Tonight Show controversy’ which will mean less and less “I’m with Coco” fanatics inviting you to join Facebook clubs.

So what have we learned from this whole debacle? As long as there are publicists and stars who need publicity, the past is meaningless. Hollywood is a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” town.

And what will Jay do for these media hungry whores stars? Deliver ratings that Conan O’Brien, Jimmy Kimmel or David Letterman can’t (unless Dave could book Sarah Palin again).

And ratings are all that matters.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 22, 2010April 6, 2011

UPDATE: Jeff Zucker Still Has A Job

The Billion Dollar Question is – WHY?

If I were to talk directly to Jeff Zucker’s current boss (Jeffrey Immelt) and future boss (Brian Roberts), I would quote my new hero, Dutch speed skater Sven Kramer, and say “Are you stoopid?”

Even if we all could forget about the recent mistakes that have been made under Jeff Zucker’s watch…

Lowest rated network
Jay/Conan debacle
Hiring Ben Silverman for… anything
The absolutely horrendous Olympic coverage which not only sucks but will LOSE millions of dollars. (The latest horrible decision was to air the TAPE-DELAYED 2-man Bobsled coverage on NBC over one of the best LIVE Olympic hockey games in years – USA vs. Canada. I’m sure JZ would say it was a brilliant move on his part to force people to find MSNBC on their televisions.)

… at this point, it’s a matter of credibility. And he has none.

Imagine Jeff Zucker standing in front of a group of Wall Street investor analysts with his PowerPoint slides and telling them “This is the future of television…” “This is the direction Comcast/NBC needs to go…” “Here are my ideas on how to turn things around…” etc.

Seriously, who the hell would believe he has the answers? And why does he even get the chance to give the answers. NBC was once great. All the missteps really started to snowball AFTER he become Chairman & CEO. He is into his fourth year and has thus far proven nothing to nobody.

Basta. Enough.

However, in an effort to make my entries a little more positive, I’m going to attempt to end them all on an upbeat note. So… that said… I do like the bulky ski resort sweaters Jeff Zucker has been wearing as he talks up NBC’s suck ass Olympic coverage on CNBC.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 18, 2010April 6, 2011

Can Elin Woods Learn From Conan O’Brien?

As Tiger Woods slowly reemerges from hiding and Team-Tiger Damage Control goes full throttle, there is an interesting parallel to be made between the Tiger/Elin Woods drama and the NBC/Conan O’Brien drama (which cost all of us a few months out of our lives).

Imagine Conan and Elin on one side and Tiger, Jay Leno, Jeff Zucker and NBC and on the other.

The parallel begins with a couple of a wide-eyed youths – dreaming of the big time.

Conan: Becomes a comedy writer for such shows as “The Simpsons” and “Saturday Night Live”, works his way up to get his own late night talk show on NBC but deep-down only imagines himself the host of one show… the crown jewel of the late night talk shows… “The Tonight Show”.

Elin: Is a nanny for a Swedish golf pro and hangs around a lot of single golfers on tour but really only imagines herself with one man… the crown jewel of golfers… Tiger Woods.

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Conan: Finally gets “The Tonight Show” in 2009 after slumming it for 16 years at 12:35am.

Elin: Finally gets a marriage proposal in 2004 from Tiger Woods after slumming it as a nanny for Jesper Parnevik’s kids.

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Conan: Jay Leno retires from “The Tonight Show” and prepares to launch an ill-conceived prime time talk show – “The Jay Leno Show”. Conan, believing NBC’s promise, happily takes over the reigns of “The Tonight Show” and looks forward to a long and prosperous run as host.

Elin: Tiger Woods retires from his crazy single days and prepares for an ill-conceived life of domestic bliss. Elin, believing Tiger, happily sets up a life of wealth and prosperity (and has two children to complete the ideal picture).

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Conan: Jay Leno’s ratings crash after one week on the air. Jeff Zucker at NBC begins to question the decision to move Jay to prime time especially considering Conan O’Brien’s horrible ratings.

Elin: Tiger Woods crashes a Cadillac Escalade into a tree after Elin Woods decides to move a few of his teeth from the front to the back of his mouth with a 7 iron.

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Conan: Begins to feel humiliated by rumors of Jay Leno returning to late night.

Elin: Begins to feel humiliated by rumors of Tiger Woods having 11 mistresses (6 of them ‘serious’).

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Conan: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Conan decides to leave NBC with $45 million.

Elin: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Elin decides to hold out for $800 million! Take that suckers.

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As for the future? Here’s my guess:

Conan: Having finalized the divorce from NBC, agrees to a deal with TBS.
Elin: After finalizing the divorce from Tiger, agrees to go on a disastrous first date with Rory Sabbatini (or some other less successful golfer that wishes he was Tiger Woods). She breaks her promise not to talk about Tiger’s affairs and loses everything. The book doesn’t sell and she moves in with John Daly.

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Dear Elin:

Conan couldn’t in good conscious stay at NBC (even though his dream life went up in flames) and you can’t stay with Tiger (even though your dream life has gone up in flames). Take the money and run to that house in Sweden. You will have a better future.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 21, 2010April 7, 2011

Letterman vs. Leno

The Conan exit deal is done – probably the largest payout in television history for someone averaging a 2.5 rating.

It is presumed he will go to Fox and get a 2.0 rating at 11:00 (my guess is reruns of The Simpsons on local affiliates do better than that).

So, with apologies to Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, George Lopez, Charlie Rose, etc., it comes down, once again, to Letterman vs. Leno.

Who will win the ratings battle (long-term) once they resume head-to-head competition March 1, 2010?

It’s very simple:
Jay Leno wins – without a doubt.

Here’s why:

DEMOGRAPHICS: Late night talk show viewers are not the Taco-Bell-eating slacker college students that most of these hosts think they’re ‘in touch with’. That demo is watching The Daily Show, Colbert, Adult Swim or they’re online or playing video games (maybe they’re not consuming any media and are out pounding drinks and, God willing, conversing with the opposite sex). So, older viewers are watching Jay and Dave – and older viewers prefer Jay. It’s warm and safe television with Headlines and Jaywalking. Dave is ‘too edgy’ for older America, even in his advanced years.

VACATION: Jay is notorious for working 46-48 weeks a year. Dave works… less than that. Even if Dave wins the first few weeks after Jay returns in March (as expected), Jay will pick up viewers once Dave goes on his first long vacation.

WORK ETHIC: While I am not doubting that Dave works very hard to put on his show four nights a week, Jay is indefatigable. He always seems to be out with the public, doing stand-up, corporate events, car shows… almost anything the network asks him to do. Jay has a high visibility factor that Dave… doesn’t have. (Not that you need that to succeed – Johnny Carson was a painfully shy recluse and did just fine.) However, when you’re trying to win back the hearts and minds of your viewers, being visible with “your public” can go a long way.

HISTORY: Jay Leno has been a consistent ratings winner for 17 years. Yes, bad press and public sentiment has damaged that but most of Jay’s fans could care less about ‘The Tonight Show’ debacle (though, I think everyone would love to see Jeff Zucker get fired).

Finally, Jay spent 20 years in comedy clubs across the country before getting ‘The Tonight Show’ and he cut his teeth in that ruthless, back-stabbing world. If he survived the shit that went on in those clubs, he can survive almost anything.

Dave did quite a bit of stand-up in the 1970s, yes, but never really immersed himself into that world. Being a great comic was not on his radar. He has always been perceived (as he wished) as a TV guy.

Jay is a comic first and a TV guy next – which is why his fans keep watching – they simply want to hear jokes on ‘The Tonight Show’ told by a comic and not just a “funny person” doing bits.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Where were all these new Conan fans when he really needed them – over the summer when he started hosting The Tonight Show? If he had the ratings then that he has now – there is no controversy. Jay would be out and Conan would be in.

January 19, 2010April 8, 2011

Jay Leno and NBC: Damage Control Begins

OK. So Conan is gone. Jay is back at 11:35. What’s next? Damage control.

Over the next few weeks, we can expect to see NBC Universal’s ‘A Team’ of publicists begin the seemingly impossible task of resuscitating the images of Jay Leno, The Tonight Show and NBC.

The Winter Olympics couldn’t have come at a better time to provide a necessary distraction – and it allows NBC Universal’s corporate publicists an extra two weeks to rebuild NBC’s shattered image.

So, here’s what needs to be done:

Step 1: Jeff Zucker must be fired. Regardless of what really happened behind the scenes, his name is synonymous with the total failure of NBC and it is perceived by the public that he is the main reason the Conan/Jay issue became such a mess. The fact that he actually believed the best way to handle the situation was to attack Conan O’Brien illustrates his complete inability to manage a crisis.

This is not someone that Comcast needs at the top of the new company to be formed and it’s, frankly, not someone that anyone needs (unless he wants to go join his buddy Ben Silverman in his soon-to-be failed company – Electus). That would be fine with me.

Step 2: Provide tons of food aid to Haitian earthquake victims (with the optional The Tonight Show With Jay Leno branding on each bag). It’s hard for late night comedians to make fun of someone who is providing real help to people in desperate need.

Step 3: Develop really good / meaningful shows and stick with them even if the ratings aren’t there. While this may result in lower profits in the short-term, NBC needs to convince viewers that they are capable of producing quality entertainment and don’t just make crappy shows about who can lose the most weight.

That’s it. Jay will go back on at 11:35 and will most likely become #1 again in a month or so. Major stars will not boycott Jay because the late night shows are vital to the promotion of their upcoming films and television series.

Sure, right now everyone is on Conan’s side but once Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts have films to promote, they’ll be right there back on Jay’s couch. Without a doubt.

If these steps are taken, NBC should be in a pretty good position when they announce their fall 2010 shows at the May upfronts.

However, if Step 1 is ignored – all bets are off.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea