Kagan’s NBCU Deal Value Allocation

Andy Forssell, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Arthur Block, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Brad Grey, Brian Roberts, Chadwick Ho, Comcast, copyrights, David Cohen, Dr. Judith Rodin, Edward Breen, Eric Feng, Fancast, Galen Warren, Gerald Hassell, Hulu, intellectual property, J. Michael Cook, James Record, Jason Kilar, Jean-Paul Colaco, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Honickman, Jill Kennedy, Joe Collins, Johannes Larcher, Julian Brodsky, Kenneth Bacon, Khan Manka, Lawrence Salva, Manka Bros., Michael Angelakis, Michael Sovern, Mike Chin, Nate Haskins, NBCU Deal Value Allocation, Nick Cafferillo, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Ralph Roberts, Reid Nagle, Rupert Murdoch, S. Decker Anstrom, Sheldon M. Bonovitz, SNL Kagan, Stephen Burke, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, Theresa Torian, Tom Corbitt, Tom Fuelling, Will PappasDeep-down, I believe almost everything Kagan puts out is bullshit.  Entertainment industry projections that are almost never right.

However, I had to give pause when I saw this chart regarding Comcast’s NBC Universal purchase.  If you’re an old media mogul, this chart should scare the living piss out of you (which for Sumner Redstone may be a healthy thing).

What Kagan is saying in this chart (and what I have believed for about a year now) is that Broadcast Networks are deadJUST LOOK AT THOSE VALUATIONS! $1.7 Billion gets you NBC AND Telemundo.  WTF?  (That price would get you around 30% of USA Network.)

Seriously, there is no purpose for a broadcast network anymore.  It’s old media moguls trying to hold on to the old days.  I hate to break to you guys… it’s over.   Martinis at The Smoke House and a show with a 40 share is fantastic… but it’s over.  Move on.

Steps should taken immediately to convert NBC to a basic cable channel (two revenue streams – come on, Jeff, mmmm – tasty).  Do this and NBC would, overnight, become the most popular cable channel on TV (until CBS converts).

Andy Forssell, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Arthur Block, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Brad Grey, Brian Roberts, Chadwick Ho, Comcast, copyrights, David Cohen, Dr. Judith Rodin, Edward Breen, Eric Feng, Fancast, Galen Warren, Gerald Hassell, Hulu, intellectual property, J. Michael Cook, James Record, Jason Kilar, Jean-Paul Colaco, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Honickman, Jill Kennedy, Joe Collins, Johannes Larcher, Julian Brodsky, Kenneth Bacon, Khan Manka, Lawrence Salva, Manka Bros., Michael Angelakis, Michael Sovern, Mike Chin, Nate Haskins, NBCU Deal Value Allocation, Nick Cafferillo, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Ralph Roberts, Reid Nagle, Rupert Murdoch, S. Decker Anstrom, Sheldon M. Bonovitz, SNL Kagan, Stephen Burke, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, Theresa Torian, Tom Corbitt, Tom Fuelling, Will PappasWhat this chart says that I completely don’t believe (and DON’T WANT to believe) is that Intellectual Property is dead (film and television production and libraries).  That’s insane!  Does Kagan seriously think we’re heading for a future when content owners are no longer in charge? 

If Disney, Warner Bros., Fox, Paramount, Universal and Sony lose the ability to further exploit, in any meaningful way, their owned, copyrighted, fully-amortized content that they’ve acquired and produced over the past several decades – these companies are basically worthless.  A declining asset with no chance to recover.

Now, for the sake of my parent company, Manka Bros. StudiosThe World’s Largest Media Company (thus, the company with the most to lose), I hope Kagan is wrong (like they normally are).  But, if Kagan is right, and we realize a future where studio libraries cost more to manage than they bring in and broadcast networks lose more and more market share to cable networks, who among us are going to survive?

Personally, I remain bullish on content and the future of intellectual propertyHOLD ON TO THOSE COPYRIGHTS, MEDIA COMPANIES!

A cable channel (even with two revenue streams) is nothing but a pipe into the home.  A convenience, yes.  A necessity, no.  The water, not the pipe, is what sustains life.

Accel Partners, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Chris Hughes, David Kirkpatrick, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, Jon Miller, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Sheryl Sandberg, Sumner Redstone, Toy Story 3Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

Disney Junior – EUREKA!

Alan Braverman, Alan C. Greenberg, Andrew Mooney, Andy Bird, Anne Sweeney, Aylwin Lewis, Blythe McGarvie, Bob Iger, Bob Weinstein, Brad Grey, Brent Woodford, Carl D. Folta, Charlies Phillips, Chateau Lafite Rothschild, Christine McCarthy, Debra Lee, DeDe Lea, Denise White, Disney Junior, Fred Langhammer, Frederic V. Salerno, George Bodenheimer, George S. Abrams, Harvey Weinstein, Imagineering, James Barge, James Bombassei, Jay Rasulo, Jayne Parker, John Bryson, John Chen, John Pepper, Jr., Judith Estrin, Judy McGrath, Kevin Mayer, Khan Manka, Lee Solomon, Manka Bros., Michael Eisner, Michael Fricklas, Miramax, Monica Lozano, Nick Junior, Noggin, Orin Smith, Philippe Dauman, Playhouse Disney, Preston Padden, Rich Ross, Robert Kraft, Robert Matschullat, Ron Burkle, Ronald Iden, Shari Redstone, Sheryl Sandberg, Steve Jobs, Steve Wadsworth, Sumner Redstone, Susan Arnold, The Weinstein Company, Thomas Dooley, Thomas Staggs, Tina Brown, Wade Davis, Walter Liss, William Schwartz, World's Largest Media Company, Zenia MuchaSo, it was announced today that Playhouse Disney will become Disney Junior. The folks at Disney Corporate must have put in quite a bit of overtime on that one.

It’s a stroke of brilliance really – just as I thought it was brilliant when Viacom changed Noggin to Nick Jr. last year!

Bravo to Disney’s Brand Consultants who, most likely, put in extremely long hours and probably weren’t cheap.

Alan Braverman, Alan C. Greenberg, Andrew Mooney, Andy Bird, Anne Sweeney, Aylwin Lewis, Blythe McGarvie, Bob Iger, Bob Weinstein, Brad Grey, Brent Woodford, Carl D. Folta, Charlies Phillips, Chateau Lafite Rothschild, Christine McCarthy, Debra Lee, DeDe Lea, Denise White, Disney Junior, Fred Langhammer, Frederic V. Salerno, George Bodenheimer, George S. Abrams, Harvey Weinstein, Imagineering, James Barge, James Bombassei, Jay Rasulo, Jayne Parker, John Bryson, John Chen, John Pepper, Jr., Judith Estrin, Judy McGrath, Kevin Mayer, Khan Manka, Lee Solomon, Manka Bros., Michael Eisner, Michael Fricklas, Miramax, Monica Lozano, Nick Junior, Noggin, Orin Smith, Philippe Dauman, Playhouse Disney, Preston Padden, Rich Ross, Robert Kraft, Robert Matschullat, Ron Burkle, Ronald Iden, Shari Redstone, Sheryl Sandberg, Steve Jobs, Steve Wadsworth, Sumner Redstone, Susan Arnold, The Weinstein Company, Thomas Dooley, Thomas Staggs, Tina Brown, Wade Davis, Walter Liss, William Schwartz, World's Largest Media Company, Zenia MuchaI can imagine conference calls, late night food deliveries and logo designs on several other names like Disney Tots, Disney Ragamuffins, ToddlerDisney, Disney 2-7 (or ‘The D27!’)… before finally reaching the stroke of genius that is Disney Junior.

And I’m sure it was a tense few days before Bob Iger finally signed off on it. During the presentation, he probably said things like “Disney Junior? Really? Isn’t Junior a term for boys? Nickelodeon did it? OK, go ahead.” And that was that. Disney Junior will launch in 2012!

Being a parent of a five year old, I am not cynical about children’s programming and appreciate the big media companies producing so much content that distracts my child long enough so I can take a five minute break to go to the bathroom (including my own parent company Manka Bros. and our Manka Kids brand – Manka Junior anyone?).

I just think with all the millions of dollars being thrown around at media companies on Brand Management, it’s nice to know that all anyone needs to do to brand something for toddlers it to put the word “Junior” behind it. Clorox Junior, Coke Junior (with 40% less sugar), 1976 Chateau Lafite Rothschild Junior (for French children)…

Maybe I’ll launch OnMedea Junior for toddlers who want to read scandalous corporate media stories about “Dora the Explorer”.

Alan Braverman, Alan C. Greenberg, Andrew Mooney, Andy Bird, Anne Sweeney, Aylwin Lewis, Blythe McGarvie, Bob Iger, Bob Weinstein, Brad Grey, Brent Woodford, Carl D. Folta, Charlies Phillips, Chateau Lafite Rothschild, Christine McCarthy, Debra Lee, DeDe Lea, Denise White, Disney Junior, Fred Langhammer, Frederic V. Salerno, George Bodenheimer, George S. Abrams, Harvey Weinstein, Imagineering, James Barge, James Bombassei, Jay Rasulo, Jayne Parker, John Bryson, John Chen, John Pepper, Jr., Judith Estrin, Judy McGrath, Kevin Mayer, Khan Manka, Lee Solomon, Manka Bros., Michael Eisner, Michael Fricklas, Miramax, Monica Lozano, Nick Junior, Noggin, Orin Smith, Philippe Dauman, Playhouse Disney, Preston Padden, Rich Ross, Robert Kraft, Robert Matschullat, Ron Burkle, Ronald Iden, Shari Redstone, Sheryl Sandberg, Steve Jobs, Steve Wadsworth, Sumner Redstone, Susan Arnold, The Weinstein Company, Thomas Dooley, Thomas Staggs, Tina Brown, Wade Davis, Walter Liss, William Schwartz, World's Largest Media Company, Zenia MuchaJill Kennedy – OnMedea

Leo Laporte Gets It

Ben Silverman doesn’t.  He really thinks he gets it but we know he doesn’t – and I seriously doubt Mob Wives will get him to the Promise Land of creating a next generation media business model.

But LEO LAPORTE (founder and chief guru of twit.tv – or This Week In Technology) GETS IT!

Please watch this 40 minute speech (which I previously posted in October 2009 – but I think deserves a second look) he gave to the Online News Association and you’ll see what I mean.

Accel Partners, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Chris Hughes, David Kirkpatrick, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, Jon Miller, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Sheryl Sandberg, Sumner Redstone, Toy Story 3Jill Kennedy – OnMedea