Seriously, what is their problem?
Just because some guy says 12 are dead – doesn’t mean you post it. Even Rupert Murdoch should know that (maybe not).
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
The New York Post Gets It Wrong… Again
Aereo Will Fail
Make no mistake – there is no chance Aereo will survive longer than two or three years. That’s a best-case scenario.
Broadcast Networks are dying (it’s true) and will be dead in their current form within five years.
In five years, who is going to pay $8 a month for nothing?
Where are all those little antennas going to go once Broadcast Networks cease to exist?
What sort of business launches with this sort of insane hype that, at most, will only exist for five years?
A Barry Diller company, of course.
The only useful purpose Aereo has is that it will play a part in hastening the inevitable demise of Broadcast Networks.
That’s something, I guess.
I wrote a couple of years ago that Broadcast Networks were in denial (BROADCAST NETWORKS: ON DEATH AND DYING – April 1, 2011). That the executives were longing for the old days of The Big Five.
Now they’re just trying to survive at any cost.
New shows aren’t working. The upfronts next month will be terrible (regardless of what the networks will actually say in their trumped up press releases and over-the-top presentations).
But things aren’t completely dire.
Chase Carey has the right idea but he shouldn’t say that he’ll make FOX a cable channel as a threat to Aereo. He should make FOX a cable channel because it would be a good business decision. It’s really the ONLY business decision.
It is time for Broadcast Networks to accept that the world has changed. “The Mary Tyler Moore Show” is no longer the number one show. And new shows like “How To Live With Your Parents (For The Rest Of Your Life)” will not save you now.
Basic cable and becoming just another button on the infinite media grid of the future is the only chance ABC, CBS, MBS, NBC and FOX have to survive.
Love him or hate him (most hate him), Barry Diller has, once again, disrupted an industry in desperate need of change.
If he wasn’t so gooey I would be cheering him on.
For $20 million dollars, he is forcing a $50 billion industry to join the 21st century. Now that’s getting a bang for your buck.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – Who knew Barry Diller enjoyed fishing so much? Here’s a great story of a recent fishing trip.
The Pathetic, Sleazy World Of Facebook ‘Likes’
Companies who believe that having millions of “Likes” on Facebook is important to their bottom line have it absolutely wrong.
“Liking” Coke or “Liking” The Avengers on Facebook isn’t going to make a person drink more Coke or see The Avengers more times – it just means they’re going to get nothing but product blasts for the rest of their lives.
I would argue it might actually make you drink less Coke because you’re so fucking annoyed with the relentless marketing from the Coca-Cola Company.
Social media would be incredibly valuable if companies would just leave it alone, make products people really like (not “Like”) and stay out of our faces.
People talking with each other (real people) and texting and emailing and chatting, etc. is the greatest marketing tool ever invented (and it wasn’t actually invented by anyone – save God). And companies are figuring out new and clever ways to fuck that up.
If you mention in your status that you are running out to Starbucks – there is really good chance your Picture and Status Update will appear in one of your friends News Feed as ads.
So, you are now, unwittingly, a Corporate Shill for Starbucks. Most people don’t like to be Corporate Shills. The term “Corporate Shill” is not a term of endearment. It makes your real friends hate you just a little bit more than they did before you pushed a product on them.
I did a little experiment over the past month. I decided to accept everyone who requested to be my friend on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/jill.kennedy.5095
I had my own little circle of work colleagues and college friends (around 30) – but decided to accept all comers in the hope that I could expand the number of “Likes” on my newly-created Company page – http://www.facebook.com/MankaBros
So I accepted and sort of went begging for “Likes” as so many people do. “If you ‘Like’ my page I’ll like your ebook or Erotic Blacklight Art Page in return…'” etc. etc. etc.
This was an eye-opening and humiliating experience – I now have 768 Friends (and counting) and not many “Likes.”
But, surprise, suddenly there was pornography in my News Feed.
There was every kind of racist Poke imaginable. Scary sexually advances. (And, to be fair, a few genuinely nice people.)
But, in general, a stunning display of what’s really out there.
Not pretty.
Are these the people Coke wants to “Like” them?
The marketing world’s latest buzz phrase is “Big Data” – gathering everybody’s information. Seriously, there are people out there whose information should never be shared except with some type of law enforcement.
Personally, I can only speak for big media companies (and myself), but I can imagine it applies to every company (and person) out there – be careful what you wish for when you start your social media campaigns because once people “Like” you, they never leave you alone.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – “LIKE” ME ON FACEBOOK!” – http://www.facebook.com/onmedea
Stuck Between Old and New Media
Hollywood is stuck.
New York is stuck.
Silicon Valley is stuck.
No one can really do anything too exciting because old media is still hanging around – refusing to give up the crown.
Don’t get me wrong – OLD MEDIA IS DYING – but they’re not dead yet.
DVDs are dying – but they’re not dead yet.
We can assume that digital downloads and streaming will be the format of choice in the future – but we don’t know how it will all be quantified. Will people buy digital movies and store them in the cloud using UltraViolet and iTunes or just rent from Redbox and subscribe to Netflix?
Broadcast Networks ARE dying – but they’re not dead yet.
Will YouTube become a go to destination for entertainment on par with broadcast and cable channels? OK, that’s easy – YES – and soon.
Will Netflix realize its dream and become another HBO? Probably not. Just because “House of Cards” sort of works doesn’t mean the next five or ten shows will.
Printed books are dying – but they’re not dead yet. Will eBooks be enough to sustain an entire industry? (And Gay Moroccan Poetry definitely isn’t going to turn things around.)
Magazines are dying – YEP, they’re pretty much dead. And the online future of magazines isn’t bright at all.
Same with printed newspapers. And newspapers online will not be able to cover the costs at their current levels – so look for further contraction of that industry.
Theatrical Distribution of movies and events is most likely here to stay when many thought a couple of years ago that the format would die (though 3D WILL die).
Even Facebook and LinkedIn feel like old school media companies that are wearing out their welcome. They’ll eventually go out of business. In the meantime, they’ll just stick around and be as boring as ever.
How crazy is it that the Music Industry almost seems relatively healthy (after a decade of torture and pain)? As horrible as was, at least they’ve made the transition to digital – and now, though smaller, they’re actually growing again. But for how long? Nobody knows.
It’s limbo.
We can’t see what the future will be because the past won’t go away.
Too many unanswered questions.
With everything so completely up in the air, it’s a terrible time to be in the media business.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
2013: Endgame For Moguls
Old Hollywood just got another year older and closer to death.
In fact, it’s getting harder and harder for Old Hollywood to get out of bed in the morning.
Food doesn’t taste as good. Hangovers are a daily occurrence.
In short, Old Hollywood is not well.
And with each passing year, as movie studios and broadcast networks become increasingly irrelevant, my thoughts are about real estate.
What is going to happen to all those soundstages and sprawling campuses scattered around Los Angeles and the world when no one needs them anymore?
Soundstages built in the early 20th century by visionaries from Poland, Hungary, New York and Kansas City.
Clearly they won’t be used as much in the future as production costs for high quality content continue to drop and new visionary kids from everywhere else in the world are able to compete head-to-head with the best Hollywood writers and directors.
Perhaps they will be torn down and apartments built. But apartments in those areas are for young writers and actors who move to L.A. to chase that Hollywood dream.
They don’t have to move here anymore.
Perhaps one studio will be turned into a museum of what Hollywood used to look like.
It’s a lot of land, man, and the shopping mall business isn’t so good these days either.
It’s going to be a real problem one day.
As I said earlier this year, YouTube’s Original Content Strategy Is Working and that should put every remaining media mogul on high alert.
The 1975 when millions of families crowded the television on a SATURDAY NIGHT to watch one of the three networks is over.
Now, in all likelihood, a family of five is watching or doing five different things on a Saturday night (and the rest of the week for that matter).
And this has been true for a few years.
In 2013, another profound and symbolic pillar will crumble in the epic story of the Decline and Fall of the Hollywood Empire.
The Mogul.
2013 will see most of the remaining media moguls pathetically fade away from relevance with little fanfare. And that’s sad.
WHO IS LEAVING?
1. Sumner Redstone – Many would say he has already left (despite his attempt to look youthful with that shocking sprayed on orange hair). Sumner has desperately clung to power just as he clung to the side of the hotel ledge years ago to survive a fire. Sumner will be the first to leave in 2013 either by death or senility (though many would argue he has been dead and senile for the past 25 years).
2. Rupert Murdoch – Enough with this guy and his phone tapping and continued interest in buying newspapers. He’s done. There is an outside chance the family empire could continue if Rupert appointed his daughter Elisabeth to the top job (I would buy the stock if that happened). But his continue insistence on giving his idiot sons top jobs will, no doubt, destroy all that he spent his entire life building.
3. Barry Diller – Barry Diller is just tired of it all. Does anyone really think he is excited about owning Ben Silverman’s ridiculous company or CollegeHumor or The Daily Beast or Zwinky or Sports Pickle? Sail away, Barry. The media world no longer needs you. You had a good run. Now go get drunk.
4. Jeffrey Katzenberg – The last mogul standing of DreamWorks SKG (one of the last valiant attempts made to build a true media empire like the old days), Katzenberg will sell DreamWorks Animation for a few billion less than he would have hoped and leave the Hollywood scene. He will go on to become equally annoying in the Art Collection scene.
CLINGING TO POWER
1. The Weinstein Brothers (Harvey and Bob) – Despite several high profile movies (Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Django Unchained) that will probably win quite a few awards this season, the Weinsteins are working with a business model from 1985. Attempted diversification into TV, publishing and interactive nearly cost them everything a few years ago. What they know is how to buy, market and get Awards for small to medium sized movies. And we know where that business is headed.
2. Ryan Kavanaugh – Calling him a mogul is generous (to say the least). Attempted mogul more like it. For some reason people keep giving him money. Hopefully, that stops soon and he is forced to land his helicopter not in Beverly Hills but somewhere out in Palmdale where he can live out his existence with a few other characters from “Day of the Locust.”
WHO IS STAYING?
Khan Manka, Jr. – Despite horrible performances year-over-year in both film and television (and publishing and music, etc.), Khan Manka, Jr. remains firmly at the top of the world’s largest media company. Even though he publicly states how much he hates the job and would rather be at his house in the Seychelles, he continues to stay year-after-year and I don’t see that changing anytime in the near or far future.
2. Thomas Tull (Legendary) – Even though Legendary is more of a high-end financing and production outfit than a media empire, Tull is eyeing much larger things and has the money to do it. How far he actually takes the media empire concept is the question. Is Legendary a new DreamWorks or actually something that will be successful?
3. Hed family of Rovio (Angry Birds) is the closest thing we have these days to a new generation media mogul (and I wish Raj, Mikael and Niklas Hed nothing but the best. DON’T SELL – BUILD!). Like Walt Disney and George Lucas before them, the Heds have a real chance to build an empire from a single group of characters. Their passion and ambition is infectious and they see enormous potential while others laugh in their face. The perfect scenario for global conquest.
—————–
So, 2013, endgame for moguls.
The big ones will fall.
Some smaller ones may rise (on a lower scale).
It will never be the same.
Where is Ted Turner when you really need him?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – John Malone and Brian Roberts may be considered moguls in today’s terms. I just find them too boring to write about.
Did David Petraeus Have An Affair or “An Affair”?
Seriously, Fox News?
Seriously, Drudge Report (see headline below)?
Seriously, Rupert Murdoch (Tweeted: Petraeus resignation. Timing, everything suspicious)
So General Petraeus had “an affair” (meaning you don’t believe he had an affair) which caused him to leave the CIA in disgrace?
As much as you would like it to happen, something does not become a scandal before the facts are known – not that that has ever stopped you before.
What IS a scandal is that Fox News and Drudge Report keep trying to create scandals that bring down the President.
I’m sorry but using quote marks to illustrate your non-belief of the story before the facts come out is journalism at its crappiest.
Newsflash to Fox News and company – Your Polls Were Wrong, Barack Obama Is President – suck it up, stop whining and move on.
Here are some of the headlines from high profile news sources after today’s surprising announcement that David Petraeus has resigned as CIA Director following an admission to an extramarital affair:
Yes, Fox News, you might be onto something – David Petraeus is obviously saying he cheated on his wife of 37 years and is throwing his long career and future down the toilet just to cover up for the President’s mistakes in Benghazi.
Get Mitt Romney and Karl Rove on the phone – tell them there is still chance! Ohio is back in play!
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Facebook Is Irrelevant
So… Facebook has announced it has passed ONE BILLION USERS.
Sounds like a reason for a huge celebration. What an amazingly awesome global community!
We should all rejoice together because we built it… together!
But unlike the supermarket that rewards its one millionth customer with balloons, gifts and plaques and everyone is so happy for the store, the only reaction to Facebook’s announcement is people commenting “Facebook sucks!” “Are they counting all 10 of my accounts including my dogs?” “I quit Facebook months ago.” etc. etc. etc.
Facebook has a problem and it’s one that it will not overcome.
Facebook is irrelevant.
Nobody cares about it anymore. There are no balloons, no cheers, no tears, just… meh.
Sure, people use it to post photos of drinking, of babies and bike riding for charity but we, the connected world, have moved past that boring old shit that used to be slightly cool.
I’m sure to that comment Facebook would say – “No, no, wait, you’re wrong, Jill – people also post funny sayings and signs that they find amusing.”
Indeed, they’re right. How am I supposed to know I should “have an awesome day” if I didn’t see it posted in the morning by one of my “friends”?
In the past, I have written that Facebook Is Worthless, Overvalued, and Must Be Stopped – but now, I just don’t care about it anymore.
I have become Facebook indifferent – it means absolutely nothing to me.
That’s not the way it was supposed to be.
The swagger and smirking of the executives and investors before the IPO made it seem like this was a company like no other on the planet – a truly game changing experience that would actually… change the world.
The world did not change because of Facebook.
We all have the same problems that generations before us had. Politicians still use the same rhetoric. American flags are still burned at overseas Embassies. Famine and hurricanes still occur.
The only positive thing Facebook ever did was allow us to see what our high school and college friends look like today. It doesn’t mean we’re going to have dinner with them or have an actual conversation. But we do get to see if they got fat. That’s it and I suppose that’s worth something.
During the first Presidential Debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney the social media winner of the night was… Twitter.
Nearly all the media outlets and pundits were talking about what happened on Twitter during the debates. Not Facebook. Not LinkedIn. Not Google Plus.
To be serious, I have no idea how they add their numbers to conclude that one billion people are on Facebook.
Perhaps they should say one billion accounts have been set by about 200 million people? We all know people who have multiple accounts (almost everyone) – accounts for dogs, literary characters and just plain fake names that we all use to hide from our “friends” and supposedly Facebook is cracking down on this practice. (By the way, you can “friend” me here.)
And that’s another reason the site sucks – who wants to be completely real on Facebook?
We’re not trying to get a job. We’re not running for office. We’re just trying to spend a few minutes out of our day looking at drunken babies and trying not to be monetized.
So congratulations, Facebook on one billion users – one billion bored, indifferent, and dissatisfied users.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – I just thought of a way Facebook could be relevant… they could buy Twitter.
Dueling Fanatics
Two very popular websites and what they posted at exactly 3:00 PM Pacific time today (October 2nd).
The real question going into the debates tomorrow isn’t who will win – Obama or Romney? (FYI, Fox News has already declared Mitt Romney the winner.)
The real question is which website will be able to bring down the candidate they hate before November 6th?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Fox News Declares Mitt Romney the Winner of the First Presidential Debate
Also declaring Mitt Romney a winner are Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.
How is that possible? The debate doesn’t even happen until October 3rd.
Here’s how: Fox News is really pushing a specific storyline about the upcoming debate. They are calling it “Do or Die” for Mitt Romney.
If that’s true, do you really expect the Fox News election team to sit there after the debate and say “Mitt Romney lost the Presidency tonight”? “Boy did he lose that one.” “I’ve never seen such a horrible performance.” “Barack Obama got my vote tonight.”
Of course not.
They will say, guaran-freakin-teed, that Mitt Romney easily defeated President Barack Obama in the debate. They’ll say “Romney was up against the wall and he came out fighting.” “It was ‘Do or Die’ and Romney is still very much alive!” etc. etc. etc.
Romney could come out, stare into the camera and complete freeze up – never saying a word and Sean Hannity would say “Frankly, he was just speechless over how bad the Obama presidency has been.”
Romney could come out and throw up all over the stage and Limbaugh would say “It was a very real moment. I wish more of our Presidential candidates would have the courage to throw up on national television.”
Romney could come out and punch Obama right in the mouth and Hannity would say “It was great. He was just expressing how so many Americans feel about President Obama’s job performance.”
He could do that bit about holding a gun to a puppy’s head and say “Vote for me or the dog gets it” and Ann Coulter would say “See, he likes animals. He didn’t actual shoot that dog.”
There is absolutely no question about. I’m sure they already writing the script for Wednesday night’s broadcast. They don’t need to see the debate to decide what they are going to say. That’s for the losers in the real news business.
According to Fox News (and many others on the Right), Mitt Romney has won a debate that hasn’t even happened.
And that’s some seriously fucked up shit.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – And spare me the “But NBC News has already decided Barack Obama is the winner of the debate…” argument – nobody is as predictable or as harmful to the country as Fox News.
Should We Believe Facebook’s Earnings?
Today is a big day for FB:NASDAQ.
The first earnings release after a pretty crappy IPO.
Needless to say, earnings and guidance must destroy expectations.
This is important for everyone who has a stake in the company – from those who had blind faith in the IPO and bought whatever meager shares they could, to the early investor billionaires and millionaires who were counting on a lot more than they’ve received thus far (greed’s a real pisser), to all the Facebook employees that have lost a bit of their swagger (and future riches) over the last couple of months.
In fact, Silicon Valley as a whole has lost its swagger a bit because of this IPO flop.
A blow-out earnings report would allow all those who were doubted and shunned to say “nah nah nah nah naaaah – told you so – we rock you suck, etc.”
Which makes me wonder, if, indeed, this is a blow-out earnings report despite what many analysts are predicting (consensus: not a blow-out), should the numbers be believed?
Is there a temptation by management and the number crunchers to goose things a bit for this very important first earnings report? Juggle some things. Move stuff around – make it up later. I’m sure they feel they’re smart enough to get around that little “random regulatory audit thing.”
They’ve got millions of made-up users – why not millions of made-up dollars?
There must be that temptation, right? I mean, how much could the SEC fine be in the scheme of things?
I’m sure the immediate reaction to such a wild, speculative (and probably fictional) premise is – “I’m shocked! How dare you presume that Facebook – with its long history of supreme ethics and outstanding morals would even dream of such a thing?”
Maybe it’s just me.
But if we hear on Thursday that there are now over 1 billion users – I’m just not going to believe it (especially when you take out the 200-300 million users that are either animals, aliases or fictional characters).
If they say that people are spending more time than ever on Facebook – I’m just not going to believe it.
If we hear on Thursday that advertising on Facebook has never been better and will continue to grow into 2013 – I’m just not going to believe it.
It is Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg’s job on Thursday is to convince us that things are awesome and getting ‘awesomer’ every day. And when they say that, I am not going to believe it.
But, truth be told, I am not the most bullish person when it comes to Facebook.
After all, I did write “Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale),” and “Facebook Is Worthless,” and “Facebook Must Be Stopped,” and “All The Facebook’s Men,” and “Advertise On Facebook And Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls,” and “Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015,” and “Y Combinator Is a Stupid Idea” (I just threw in that last one for fun).
But you do have to wonder – it is soooooo important NOT to disappoint and pressure is coming from everywhere to make sure that they don’t.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea