Letterman vs. Leno

ABC, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Beverly Hills Hotel, Brian Roberts, CBS, Charlie Rose, Comcast, Conan O'Brien, CSI: NY, David Letterman, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Dick Wolf, Eastwick, ER, GE shareholder, George Lopez, Gossip Girl, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jay Leno ratings, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jill Kennedy, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, John Ferriter, Jon Stewart, Julianna Margulies, Kate Gosselin, Khan Manka, Law & Order, Les Moonves, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Nancy Tellum, Nikki Finke, Octomom, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, Producers Caucus Panel, Sharon Waxman, Stephen Colbert, Stop all the clocks..., TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The CW, thewrap.com, W.H. Auden, Warner Bros., William Morris EndeavorABC, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Beverly Hills Hotel, Brian Roberts, CBS, Charlie Rose, Comcast, Conan O'Brien, CSI: NY, David Letterman, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Dick Wolf, Eastwick, ER, GE shareholder, George Lopez, Gossip Girl, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jay Leno ratings, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jill Kennedy, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, John Ferriter, Jon Stewart, Julianna Margulies, Kate Gosselin, Khan Manka, Law & Order, Les Moonves, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Nancy Tellum, Nikki Finke, Octomom, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, Producers Caucus Panel, Sharon Waxman, Stephen Colbert, Stop all the clocks..., TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The CW, thewrap.com, W.H. Auden, Warner Bros., William Morris EndeavorThe Conan exit deal is done – probably the largest payout in television history for someone averaging a 2.5 rating.

It is presumed he will go to Fox and get a 2.0 rating at 11:00 (my guess is reruns of The Simpsons on local affiliates do better than that).

So, with apologies to Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, George Lopez, Charlie Rose, etc., it comes down, once again, to Letterman vs. Leno.

Who will win the ratings battle (long-term) once they resume head-to-head competition March 1, 2010?

It’s very simple:
Jay Leno wins – without a doubt.

ABC, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Beverly Hills Hotel, Brian Roberts, CBS, Charlie Rose, Comcast, Conan O'Brien, CSI: NY, David Letterman, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Dick Wolf, Eastwick, ER, GE shareholder, George Lopez, Gossip Girl, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jay Leno ratings, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jill Kennedy, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, John Ferriter, Jon Stewart, Julianna Margulies, Kate Gosselin, Khan Manka, Law & Order, Les Moonves, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Nancy Tellum, Nikki Finke, Octomom, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, Producers Caucus Panel, Sharon Waxman, Stephen Colbert, Stop all the clocks..., TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The CW, thewrap.com, W.H. Auden, Warner Bros., William Morris EndeavorHere’s why:

DEMOGRAPHICS: Late night talk show viewers are not the Taco-Bell-eating slacker college students that most of these hosts think they’re ‘in touch with’.  That demo is watching The Daily Show, Colbert, Adult Swim or they’re online or playing video games (maybe they’re not consuming any media and are out pounding drinks and, God willing, conversing with the opposite sex).  So, older viewers are watching Jay and Dave – and older viewers prefer Jay.  It’s warm and safe television with Headlines and JaywalkingDave is ‘too edgy’ for older America, even in his advanced years.

VACATION: Jay is notorious for working 46-48 weeks a year.  Dave works… less than that.  Even if Dave wins the first few weeks after Jay returns in March (as expected), Jay will pick up viewers once Dave goes on his first long vacation.

WORK ETHIC: While I am not doubting that Dave works very hard to put on his show four nights a week, Jay is indefatigable.  He always seems to be out with the public, doing stand-up, corporate events, car shows… almost anything the network asks him to do.  Jay has a high visibility factor that Dave… doesn’t have.  (Not that you need that to succeed – Johnny Carson was a painfully shy recluse and did just fine.)  However, when you’re trying to win back the hearts and minds of your viewers, being visible with “your public” can go a long way.

ABC, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Beverly Hills Hotel, Brian Roberts, CBS, Charlie Rose, Comcast, Conan O'Brien, CSI: NY, David Letterman, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Dick Wolf, Eastwick, ER, GE shareholder, George Lopez, Gossip Girl, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jay Leno ratings, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jill Kennedy, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, John Ferriter, Jon Stewart, Julianna Margulies, Kate Gosselin, Khan Manka, Law & Order, Les Moonves, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Nancy Tellum, Nikki Finke, Octomom, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, Producers Caucus Panel, Sharon Waxman, Stephen Colbert, Stop all the clocks..., TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The CW, thewrap.com, W.H. Auden, Warner Bros., William Morris EndeavorHISTORY: Jay Leno has been a consistent ratings winner for 17 years.  Yes, bad press and public sentiment has damaged that but most of Jay’s fans could care less about ‘The Tonight Show’ debacle (though, I think everyone would love to see Jeff Zucker get fired).

Finally, Jay spent 20 years in comedy clubs across the country before getting ‘The Tonight Show’ and he cut his teeth in that ruthless, back-stabbing world.  If he survived the shit that went on in those clubs, he can survive almost anything.

Dave did quite a bit of stand-up in the 1970s, yes, but never really immersed himself into that world.  Being a great comic was not on his radar.  He has always been perceived (as he wished) as a TV guy.

Jay is a comic first and a TV guy next – which is why his fans keep watching – they simply want to hear jokes on ‘The Tonight Show’ told by a comic and not just a “funny person” doing bits.

Accel Partners, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Chris Hughes, David Kirkpatrick, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, Jon Miller, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Sheryl Sandberg, Sumner Redstone, Toy Story 3Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Where were all these new Conan fans when he really needed them – over the summer when he started hosting The Tonight Show?  If he had the ratings then that he has now – there is no controversy.  Jay would be out and Conan would be in.

Should News Corp Buy Viacom

Adam Townsend, Alan Greenberg, Angeline Straka, Anthea Disney, Anthony G. Ambrosio, Ari Emanuel, Arnold Kopelson, Beryl Cook, Blythe McGarvie, Brad Grey, Bruce Gordon, Carl Folta, Charles Gifford, Charles Phillips, Chase Carey, David Devoe, David Poltrack, David R. Angelman, Debra Lee, DeDe Lea, Denise White, Doug Morris, Fred Salerno, Gary Countryman, Gary Ginsberg, Genie Gavenchak, George Abrams, Gil Schwartz, Jack Horner, James Barge, James Bombassei, James Murdoch, Jeff Weiner, Jill Kennedy, John Nallen, Joseph Califano, Joseph Ianniello, Jr., Jr. Frederic Salerno, Judy McGrath, Julie Henderson, Kara Swisher, Khan Manka, Lawrence Jacobs, Leonard Goldberg, Les Moonves, Linda Griego, Louis Briskman, Manka Bros., Martin Franks, Michael Fricklas, Michael Regan, Nikki Finke, OnMedea, Philippe Dauman, Reed Nolte, Richard M. Jones, Robert Kraft, Roger Ailes, Rupert Murdoch, Shari Redstone, Sharon Waxman, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, thewrap.com, Thomas Dooley, Tom Mockridge, Tony Santabarbara, Wade Davis, William Cohen, William Schwartz

Adam Townsend, Alan Greenberg, Angeline Straka, Anthea Disney, Anthony G. Ambrosio, Ari Emanuel, Arnold Kopelson, Beryl Cook, Blythe McGarvie, Brad Grey, Bruce Gordon, Carl Folta, Charles Gifford, Charles Phillips, Chase Carey, David Devoe, David Poltrack, David R. Angelman, Debra Lee, DeDe Lea, Denise White, Doug Morris, Fred Salerno, Gary Countryman, Gary Ginsberg, Genie Gavenchak, George Abrams, Gil Schwartz, Jack Horner, James Barge, James Bombassei, James Murdoch, Jeff Weiner, Jill Kennedy, John Nallen, Joseph Califano, Joseph Ianniello, Jr., Jr. Frederic Salerno, Judy McGrath, Julie Henderson, Kara Swisher, Khan Manka, Lawrence Jacobs, Leonard Goldberg, Les Moonves, Linda Griego, Louis Briskman, Manka Bros., Martin Franks, Michael Fricklas, Michael Regan, Nikki Finke, OnMedea, Philippe Dauman, Reed Nolte, Richard M. Jones, Robert Kraft, Roger Ailes, Rupert Murdoch, Shari Redstone, Sharon Waxman, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, thewrap.com, Thomas Dooley, Tom Mockridge, Tony Santabarbara, Wade Davis, William Cohen, William SchwartzAdam Townsend, Alan Greenberg, Angeline Straka, Anthea Disney, Anthony G. Ambrosio, Ari Emanuel, Arnold Kopelson, Beryl Cook, Blythe McGarvie, Brad Grey, Bruce Gordon, Carl Folta, Charles Gifford, Charles Phillips, Chase Carey, David Devoe, David Poltrack, David R. Angelman, Debra Lee, DeDe Lea, Denise White, Doug Morris, Fred Salerno, Gary Countryman, Gary Ginsberg, Genie Gavenchak, George Abrams, Gil Schwartz, Jack Horner, James Barge, James Bombassei, James Murdoch, Jeff Weiner, Jill Kennedy, John Nallen, Joseph Califano, Joseph Ianniello, Jr., Jr. Frederic Salerno, Judy McGrath, Julie Henderson, Kara Swisher, Khan Manka, Lawrence Jacobs, Leonard Goldberg, Les Moonves, Linda Griego, Louis Briskman, Manka Bros., Martin Franks, Michael Fricklas, Michael Regan, Nikki Finke, OnMedea, Philippe Dauman, Reed Nolte, Richard M. Jones, Robert Kraft, Roger Ailes, Rupert Murdoch, Shari Redstone, Sharon Waxman, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, thewrap.com, Thomas Dooley, Tom Mockridge, Tony Santabarbara, Wade Davis, William Cohen, William SchwartzYES!

But only Viacom’s cable networks and digital assetsCBS (not wanting to leave the cocoon of Old Media) should buy Viacom’s Paramount Pictures.

Is there any chance in hell this could actually happen?  Could Rupert Murdoch pull off an acquisition of that magnitude?

No fucking way.  Not while old man Redstone continues to draw a breath.

So, yes, it’s most likely a non-starter.  But even in a fantasy scenario, wouldn’t it be great to finally get rid of Viacom and Redstone?  Both are simply a mess and completely unnecessary.

[Note:  I realize Sumner Redstone is Chairman of the Board and majority stockholder of CBS, but Les Moonves is the much more appealing face of that company, not SumnerSumner is the face of Viacom… and the media world has had enough.]

Adam Townsend, Alan Ruck, Amy Baer, Angeline Straka, Anthony Ambrosio, Ari Emanuel, Arnold Kopelson, Brendan Fraser, Bruce S. Gordon, Bruce Tobey, Carl Folta, Carla Santos Shamberg, CBS Films, Charlie Gifford, Chase Carey, David Andelman, David Poltrack, Debbie Miller, DebManka Bros., Diego Velazquez, Doug Morris, Fred Salerno, Gary Countryman, Geeta Anand, Gil Schwartz, Harrison Ford, Harvey Weinstein, Jared Harris, Jeff Weiner, Jill Kennedy, Jordana Glick-Franzheim, Joseph A. Califano, Joseph Ianniello, Josh Rothstein, Jr., Keri Russell, Khan Manka, Leonard Goldberg, Les Moonves, Linda Griego, Louis Briskman, Manka Bros., Martin Franks, Meredith Droeger, Michael Shamberg, Nan Morales, News Corporation, OnMedea, Patrick Bauchau, Phillippe Dauman, Reid Sullivan, Richard Jones, Rik Toulon, Rob Friedman, Robert Nelson Jacobs, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Hall, Shari Redstone, Stacey Sher, Steven Friedlander, Summit Entertainment, Sumner Redstone, Terry Semel, The Weinstein Company, Thomas Dooley, Tom Vaughan, Viacom, Wade Davis, William S. CohenImagine News Corp (which has the weakest portfolio of cable assets save Fox News, FX and those regional sports thingies) with Viacom’s cable channels: MTV, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, TV Land, VH1, etc. etc.

This would immediately fill all News Corp’s demographic needs and, in the digital channel universe, put them on par with Time Warner, Disney and, in late 2010, Comcast.

Viacom was never going to be on par with anyone as long as Sumner is around (even with those assets)… so it’s time to shut it down.

As for CBS and their acquisition of Paramount Pictures… they, obviously, just want to be an old media company and ride that peaceful, easy feeling all the way into the grave.  Buying Paramount Pictures (and, hey, why not MGM while they’re at it!) would help realize that mid-1990s-vertical-alignment-synergy-world they are striving for.  And based on Comcast’s purchase of NBCU (which valued Universal Studios at less than $3 billion), Paramount, with its much smaller film and television library, can be picked up at quite a fire sale bargain.  (Wait two years and it will be even more of a bargain!)

Also, this would give CBS the opportunity to shut down the ridiculous CBS Films vanity project before it becomes a further embarrassment.

So, think about it people.  A deal like this would really be a win-win-win for everyone… and help us to get rid of (at least a part of) Sumner Redstone once and for all.

Accel Partners, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Chris Hughes, David Kirkpatrick, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, Jon Miller, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Sheryl Sandberg, Sumner Redstone, Toy Story 3Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

It’s Time To Kill The Emmys

61st Annual Emmy Awards, ABC, Angela Bromstad, Anne Sweeney, Ari Emanuel, Ben Silverman, CBS, Chris O'Donnell, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Don Mischer, Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along-Blog, Family Guy, Fox, Jeff Weiner, Jill Kennedy, Khan Manka, Les Moonves, LL Cool J, Manka Bros., NBC, NCIS: Los Angeles, Neil Patrick Harris, Nikki Finke, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Sandy Grushow, Seth McFarlane, Sharon Waxman, Terry Semel, The CW, The Simpsons, thewrap.com

61st Annual Emmy Awards, ABC, Angela Bromstad, Anne Sweeney, Ari Emanuel, Ben Silverman, CBS, Chris O'Donnell, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Don Mischer, Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along-Blog, Family Guy, Fox, Jeff Weiner, Jill Kennedy, Khan Manka, Les Moonves, LL Cool J, Manka Bros., NBC, NCIS: Los Angeles, Neil Patrick Harris, Nikki Finke, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Sandy Grushow, Seth McFarlane, Sharon Waxman, Terry Semel, The CW, The Simpsons, thewrap.comFrankly, no one gives a shit anymore.  Last night’s show was painful.

A tour of the set?  Seriously?  Matthew Weiner, creator of Mad Men, is unable to give an acceptance speech for winning Best Drama because there was a five minute TOUR OF THE SET at the beginning of the show?   “Where we will all be spending the next three plus hours!”

The opening number from the Academy Awards winning for Best Musical NumberBest Musical Number?

That painfully long Family Guy bit with the baby killing the dog (full disclosure – I’m a Simpson’s girl and think Family Guy sucks so I probably wouldn’t have liked even if it were short and funny).

There there was bit-after-painful-bit about the demise of television.  Television, the way it was in 1979 is dead – TELEVISION ISN’T DEAD!  What else are we supposed to do to pass the time on this miserable planet?  We like the internet, we like television, we like movies, we like going out to dinner, we like talking on the phone, we like working out, we like going to the park with our kids, we like going to Disneyland… just because we spend a few hours less watching TV doesn’t make it the end of the world!

I know there is a lot of insecurity in this town and a very strong need to give each other awards.  But would the programming change if there wasn’t Emmy Awards?  Are the actors from NCIS: Los Angeles relevant in any way?  Was an appearance by the Gossip Girls a way to reach out to 15 year olds?  As an experiment, Television Academy, why don’t you put next year’s awards on the Disney Channel and see how many young girls you get to watch… But that would never happen because the Emmys are much too prestigious for that.

I know the old white executives want it to be 1979 again when the television audience apparently actually cared if M*A*S*H would win or lose – but those days are gone.

It’s over.  Kill it already.  Every year it sucks and every year we watch.  Over half that crowd (i.e., the late night comedy show writers), wanted to be watching the Giants/Cowboys game on NBC.  Myself included.

Accel Partners, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Chris Hughes, David Kirkpatrick, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, Jon Miller, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Sheryl Sandberg, Sumner Redstone, Toy Story 3Jill Kennedy – OnMedea