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Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
The Great Media Bloodbath of 2014
5/12/14 UPDATE: AT&T to acquire DirecTV! Lock the doors – it’s scary out there.
2/12/14 UPDATE: Holy Crap, 2014 just got a whole lot uglier (and it was already hideous) with the announcement of Comcast acquiring Time Warner Cable!
ORIGINAL POST:
It’s coming.
Holy shit is it coming.
Millions are getting pummeled with a horrible winter but brace yourselves further, because you are in for a shitstorm of job cuts in 2014.
It will not be pretty.
It seems that media company CEOs are hell bent on proving to Wall Street that their companies can be growth companies.
Unless they fire every employee and start a new company by themselves in a garage, they cannot be growth companies the way Wall Street would like.
20% margins just will never happen again in the movie, TV, print, or music industries – so deal with it.
But these CEOs are guys (all guys) who think they can do anything.
But they will fail.
And then they’ll CUT.
And… it will not be pretty.
Tribune got things started.
My company’s CEO has called 2014 “The Year of the Hammer.”
No one will make it through unscathed.
First to go will be the packaged media folks. Those who support the production and distribution of DVDs and CDs and magazines, etc.
Gone.
Next will be the slow growth businesses – like movies and Broadcast TV production (serious like a heart attack).
Slates will be slashed, storytelling risk-taking will cease to exist.
Since no one can seem to do comedy anymore on Broadcast, they will be relegated to the epic mini-series format like “Under The Dome” and live Sports to stay afloat.
Then, finally, the low margin businesses will be hit – like console games. With the exception of a few huge titles, it’s a tough business and it certainly doesn’t help these overly-ambitious / delusional CEOs hit their targets.
So what’s going to be left? TV production for cable and Over-The-Top (OTT).
Why TV gets ownership of Internet content production is baffling to me. But they do.
By the end of 2014, giant media companies with their film studios, broadcast networks and massive real estate leases will be much MUCH leaner and the quality of the product will be much MUCH worse.
Hey, but a point of margin here and a point of margin there adds up to… 2 points.
But lighten up, Spring is coming.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
CBS Cancels ‘We Are Men’
Really sad.
The people who created this show really thought they had another “Friends.”
Oh, well.
Next time – be more funny – and stop trying to write for the idiots who you believe are not as smart as you.
Chin up, maybe Basic Cable or Netflix is ready for your groundbreaking style.
Gone are the dreams and dancing.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – If you’re wondering what’s up with this bullshit post – read this.
Journalism Is Dead
If other blogs didn’t steal my stuff years ago, I would have said R.I.P. Journalism – but “R.I.P.” as a way of saying a something is dead is also dead.
So, what do I mean by “Journalism Is Dead?”
Very simple. Journalism is dead. I’ll prove it.
The online media “information” space has been taken over by the Press Release. Companies issue press releases or send emails to blogs like Deadline.com or TechCrunch and that becomes the news of the day. No one is actually out in the field unless you consider a guy with a camera in the face of a drunken celebrity at TMZ real journalism.
Very few – VERY FEW – are actually digging up stories, creating news – trying to right the wrongs. It’s all controlled by someone other than journalists.
So here’s my experiment…
I didn’t really write over the summer because I was working on a book – so my numbers were pretty terrible on this blog. I was doing pretty well when I was constantly writing about how Facebook sucks. But now it’s terrible.
Last month I had very few eyeballs on this site because I really wasn’t around and only posted one time. Pretty sad.
In September 2013 – OnMedea had 1,167 hits. A real low for the site – but my own fault. In October, I am at 574 hits for the month – mostly because of the old Sean Hannity story – but really terrible.
Now I’m mostly going to do what others “media” blogs do for the rest of the month (Press Releases, hearsay, etc. – with my own little comments here and there) – whatever takes the LEAST amount of time – and give updates on how my numbers change.
Should be an interesting experiment.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Lloyd Blankfein Is A Douche
The Pathetic, Sleazy World Of Facebook ‘Likes’
Companies who believe that having millions of “Likes” on Facebook is important to their bottom line have it absolutely wrong.
“Liking” Coke or “Liking” The Avengers on Facebook isn’t going to make a person drink more Coke or see The Avengers more times – it just means they’re going to get nothing but product blasts for the rest of their lives.
I would argue it might actually make you drink less Coke because you’re so fucking annoyed with the relentless marketing from the Coca-Cola Company.
Social media would be incredibly valuable if companies would just leave it alone, make products people really like (not “Like”) and stay out of our faces.
People talking with each other (real people) and texting and emailing and chatting, etc. is the greatest marketing tool ever invented (and it wasn’t actually invented by anyone – save God). And companies are figuring out new and clever ways to fuck that up.
If you mention in your status that you are running out to Starbucks – there is really good chance your Picture and Status Update will appear in one of your friends News Feed as ads.
So, you are now, unwittingly, a Corporate Shill for Starbucks. Most people don’t like to be Corporate Shills. The term “Corporate Shill” is not a term of endearment. It makes your real friends hate you just a little bit more than they did before you pushed a product on them.
I did a little experiment over the past month. I decided to accept everyone who requested to be my friend on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/jill.kennedy.5095
I had my own little circle of work colleagues and college friends (around 30) – but decided to accept all comers in the hope that I could expand the number of “Likes” on my newly-created Company page – http://www.facebook.com/MankaBros
So I accepted and sort of went begging for “Likes” as so many people do. “If you ‘Like’ my page I’ll like your ebook or Erotic Blacklight Art Page in return…'” etc. etc. etc.
This was an eye-opening and humiliating experience – I now have 768 Friends (and counting) and not many “Likes.”
But, surprise, suddenly there was pornography in my News Feed.
There was every kind of racist Poke imaginable. Scary sexually advances. (And, to be fair, a few genuinely nice people.)
But, in general, a stunning display of what’s really out there.
Not pretty.
Are these the people Coke wants to “Like” them?
The marketing world’s latest buzz phrase is “Big Data” – gathering everybody’s information. Seriously, there are people out there whose information should never be shared except with some type of law enforcement.
Personally, I can only speak for big media companies (and myself), but I can imagine it applies to every company (and person) out there – be careful what you wish for when you start your social media campaigns because once people “Like” you, they never leave you alone.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – “LIKE” ME ON FACEBOOK!” – http://www.facebook.com/onmedea
Facebook Is Irrelevant
So… Facebook has announced it has passed ONE BILLION USERS.
Sounds like a reason for a huge celebration. What an amazingly awesome global community!
We should all rejoice together because we built it… together!
But unlike the supermarket that rewards its one millionth customer with balloons, gifts and plaques and everyone is so happy for the store, the only reaction to Facebook’s announcement is people commenting “Facebook sucks!” “Are they counting all 10 of my accounts including my dogs?” “I quit Facebook months ago.” etc. etc. etc.
Facebook has a problem and it’s one that it will not overcome.
Facebook is irrelevant.
Nobody cares about it anymore. There are no balloons, no cheers, no tears, just… meh.
Sure, people use it to post photos of drinking, of babies and bike riding for charity but we, the connected world, have moved past that boring old shit that used to be slightly cool.
I’m sure to that comment Facebook would say – “No, no, wait, you’re wrong, Jill – people also post funny sayings and signs that they find amusing.”
Indeed, they’re right. How am I supposed to know I should “have an awesome day” if I didn’t see it posted in the morning by one of my “friends”?
In the past, I have written that Facebook Is Worthless, Overvalued, and Must Be Stopped – but now, I just don’t care about it anymore.
I have become Facebook indifferent – it means absolutely nothing to me.
That’s not the way it was supposed to be.
The swagger and smirking of the executives and investors before the IPO made it seem like this was a company like no other on the planet – a truly game changing experience that would actually… change the world.
The world did not change because of Facebook.
We all have the same problems that generations before us had. Politicians still use the same rhetoric. American flags are still burned at overseas Embassies. Famine and hurricanes still occur.
The only positive thing Facebook ever did was allow us to see what our high school and college friends look like today. It doesn’t mean we’re going to have dinner with them or have an actual conversation. But we do get to see if they got fat. That’s it and I suppose that’s worth something.
During the first Presidential Debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney the social media winner of the night was… Twitter.
Nearly all the media outlets and pundits were talking about what happened on Twitter during the debates. Not Facebook. Not LinkedIn. Not Google Plus.
To be serious, I have no idea how they add their numbers to conclude that one billion people are on Facebook.
Perhaps they should say one billion accounts have been set by about 200 million people? We all know people who have multiple accounts (almost everyone) – accounts for dogs, literary characters and just plain fake names that we all use to hide from our “friends” and supposedly Facebook is cracking down on this practice. (By the way, you can “friend” me here.)
And that’s another reason the site sucks – who wants to be completely real on Facebook?
We’re not trying to get a job. We’re not running for office. We’re just trying to spend a few minutes out of our day looking at drunken babies and trying not to be monetized.
So congratulations, Facebook on one billion users – one billion bored, indifferent, and dissatisfied users.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – I just thought of a way Facebook could be relevant… they could buy Twitter.
Should We Believe Facebook’s Earnings?
Today is a big day for FB:NASDAQ.
The first earnings release after a pretty crappy IPO.
Needless to say, earnings and guidance must destroy expectations.
This is important for everyone who has a stake in the company – from those who had blind faith in the IPO and bought whatever meager shares they could, to the early investor billionaires and millionaires who were counting on a lot more than they’ve received thus far (greed’s a real pisser), to all the Facebook employees that have lost a bit of their swagger (and future riches) over the last couple of months.
In fact, Silicon Valley as a whole has lost its swagger a bit because of this IPO flop.
A blow-out earnings report would allow all those who were doubted and shunned to say “nah nah nah nah naaaah – told you so – we rock you suck, etc.”
Which makes me wonder, if, indeed, this is a blow-out earnings report despite what many analysts are predicting (consensus: not a blow-out), should the numbers be believed?
Is there a temptation by management and the number crunchers to goose things a bit for this very important first earnings report? Juggle some things. Move stuff around – make it up later. I’m sure they feel they’re smart enough to get around that little “random regulatory audit thing.”
They’ve got millions of made-up users – why not millions of made-up dollars?
There must be that temptation, right? I mean, how much could the SEC fine be in the scheme of things?
I’m sure the immediate reaction to such a wild, speculative (and probably fictional) premise is – “I’m shocked! How dare you presume that Facebook – with its long history of supreme ethics and outstanding morals would even dream of such a thing?”
Maybe it’s just me.
But if we hear on Thursday that there are now over 1 billion users – I’m just not going to believe it (especially when you take out the 200-300 million users that are either animals, aliases or fictional characters).
If they say that people are spending more time than ever on Facebook – I’m just not going to believe it.
If we hear on Thursday that advertising on Facebook has never been better and will continue to grow into 2013 – I’m just not going to believe it.
It is Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg’s job on Thursday is to convince us that things are awesome and getting ‘awesomer’ every day. And when they say that, I am not going to believe it.
But, truth be told, I am not the most bullish person when it comes to Facebook.
After all, I did write “Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale),” and “Facebook Is Worthless,” and “Facebook Must Be Stopped,” and “All The Facebook’s Men,” and “Advertise On Facebook And Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls,” and “Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015,” and “Y Combinator Is a Stupid Idea” (I just threw in that last one for fun).
But you do have to wonder – it is soooooo important NOT to disappoint and pressure is coming from everywhere to make sure that they don’t.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale)
Once upon a time, in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park, California, there was a company called Facebook.
This company was unlike any other (sorry, make that ‘like MANY others’) in that it connected people from around world through a magical and glorious technical achievement called the Internet.
Everyone loved Facebook:
“Oh my God, it is so easy to upload pictures of my baby!”
“I can’t believe I found all my old high school and college friends so easily!”
“Hey everyone, I’m off to get a coffee – can’t start my day without coffee!”
People from around the world chatted, and shared, and reconnected. There was something really exciting going on in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park.
But then, one day, because Facebook was growing so so so very large – and its bills were growing so so so much – it needed to somehow make money.
Facebook was so kind that they didn’t want to charge people for the privilege of using its service – so it added advertising. Advertising so tiny that the people of the world didn’t even noticed the ads were there.
“There are ads on Facebook? You know, I’ve never seen one – and I certainly have never clicked on one! Good for them.”
Perhaps Mean Old Mr. Advertiser started to realize that no one was clicking or even noticing his ads.
But little Facebook still needed to get paid – I mean, even a whore has to eat – so they decided to work something out with Mean Old Mr. Advertiser.
Maybe they could somehow leverage their size and sell the personal information of their 900 million users. Would that keep Mean Old Mr. Advertiser off their backs so they could resume their happy life of connecting the world and bringing nothing but joy?
Facebook was so kind to its users that they even added a “Like” button (because “Like” is much nicer than “Dislike” and Coca-Cola doesn’t want to see how many people “Dislike” Coke Zero).
It was so simple, users could either “Like” something or choose not to hit the “Like” button. It was up to the user.
That worked for awhile until the users of the world started to realize what was happening. Many users got angry and felt their privacy was being invaded.
About 15 people actually quit Facebook (while another 100 million signed up).
After a few months, things calmed in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park and the people on Facebook – to a lesser degree – felt fairly happy again.
But then, one day, Facebook decided that the users of the world needed to share every bit of information about their lives – from birth to even death – and put it all into a very conforming and dizzying glop of data called Timeline.
Mean Old Mr. Advertiser LOVED the idea of Timeline.
Finally, Facebook was thinking like him. Now they got the idea. Mean Old Mr. Advertiser could scour the lives of the people of the world and target them with goods and services that they may or may not enjoy.
And somehow, in just a brief eight years of existence – little Facebook grew and grew and grew and became worth $100 BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS! Oh, goodness, pardon me. (An IPO last year would been insane! What a missed opportunity!… but I digress.)
Well, from here the story gets a little tragic.
The beaten down people of the world and users of Facebook grew so exhausted from the daily overhauls of the site (which were necessary to maximize revenue) that they actually stopped spending time on Facebook – instead reading real books to their children and enjoying the outside world.
Comments started to appear on other websites (yes, there are actually other websites) saying they hate Facebook, are never going back and are quitting.
Poor little Facebook. They just wanted to HELP the world – not FUCK OVER the world.
How could a crappy redesign and a selling of their soul piss people off so much?
It’s just a website after all (one that is on its way to becoming WORTHLESS and must be STOPPED for the good of the world!… one more digression).
I mean, why do the people of the world care so much?
Well, we all know how the story ends.
Disgruntled engineers (and let’s assume an MBA or two) who helped create the chaos from the direction of Uncle Mark and Aunt Sheryl, began grumbling about their need to become millionaires and billionaires like so many of their friends.
The only way to stop them from leaving the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park – and going to, oh, say, the dangerous crack alleys of Mountain View and Cupertino to seek their fortune – was to take the company public.
By selling $5 or $10 billion dollars in stock to the ‘public’ (at a BULLSHIT valuation of $100 billion!) everyone could become rich and (yes) happy.
So at least the employees of Facebook will now be happy. The people of the world, who are seriously beginning to hate Facebook and are either leaving or staying away in droves, are less and less happy every day.
But Mean Old Mr. Facebook couldn’t care less – the users can go fuck themselves.
“Just put your freakin’ family photos in the template we have provided, “Like” the new Coke Zero, play the stupid Zynga games, pay for a movie rental, pay for a music subscription, and keep your stupid mouth shut. We’re not getting to a trillion dollar valuation from pictures of your goddamned baby!”
Mean Old Mr. Facebook is right. The User is wrong.
The moral of the story: Don’t screw your users. They’re the ones that built you up and they’re the ones that will bring you down.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Facebook Must Be Stopped
There is an evil temptation that far too many companies are having trouble resisting – the temptation to launch a new product or service on Facebook.
Every month, when the number of Facebook users seem to go up by 100 million or so – to a current tally of 750 million (let’s be serious, about half are most likely fictional or animals), the CEOs of most entertainment and technology companies get the crazy urge to somehow “tap into that customer base.”
This crazy urge must be resisted. Why? So Facebook is destroyed and the people of the world can go on to a much more interesting existence.
In my opinion, doing business with Facebook is the equivalent of doing business with China. Companies feel they need break into the Chinese market because there is FREAKING 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE THERE! “If we just get 0.0001% we’ll be successful. It’s a no brainer!”
And nearly every company goes there with their hat in their hand – giving every insane concession imaginable just to get in the door – and, eventually, come home with a giant footprint on their ass.
Reminder: The Chinese government can do whatever they want. The deal signed means nothing. If they don’t like your attitude or your product or just feel you’re getting a little “too friendly”, they’ll cut you off and send you home a miserable failure. And it doesn’t matter how many cartons of cigarettes or bottles of Slivovitz you give local officials. When it’s over, it’s over.
This is also true of Facebook.
I firmly believe Facebook could absolutely destroy Zynga (and numerous other companies) overnight. They have that power.
Granted, there is too much money at stake with Zynga’s upcoming IPO, so they probably won’t exert that power. But do you think the Zynga executives are going to do anything to antagonize Facebook… ever? Mark Zuckerberg knows the power he has over Mark Pincus.
That is another reason why Facebook must be stopped. Too many people are believing the hype and are afraid of being left behind.
Every day, Facebook dominates technology news. Press release after press release announces Facebook’s new initiatives and services. Their PR department sends out a press release, websites rewrite them slightly and, pow, you have technology news with a narrative controlled by… Facebook.
This week came a “leak” that they will be going into the Music business by blending streaming services such as Spotify, rdio and MOG into the Facebook user experience.
After all, why should anyone have to leave Facebook to listen to music? Why should anyone have to leave Facebook ever?
(I am working on a product that integrates Facebook into my morning shower. There must be a way to combine my Facebook news feed with the water from the shower head so my friend’s status updates directly enter my pores and absorb into my brain. But I digress….)
Spotify is a great service. They don’t need Facebook. People on Facebook don’t complain about having to toggle away from Facebook in order to go onto Spotify. It ain’t broke, don’t fix it!
Spotify and other media companies need to resist the temptation of the 750 million non-paying users (which includes millions of dogs and cats who don’t really care what songs they listen to).
And look at this growth chart (left). 7.3 billion users in 2015 vs. only 7.2 billion people alive on the planet!
Major media companies (including my parent company Manka Bros. Studios) need to realize that Facebook needs them more than they need Facebook. (Manka Bros. is actually working on a ‘Facebook Killer’ – Caligula – to launch later this year but I fear it will be more of the same.)
Content is the driver of everything in media. Put a great movie on a crappy 13 inch black & white TV and it’s still a great movie and people will watch it. Put a shitty movie on a 110″ inch HD television screen with Dolby SurroundSound, movie lighting and a cocktail, and it’s still a shitty movie that no one will watch.
Facebook needs to realize that the only reason they are popular is because we all have this urge to see what our friends from high school and college look like now. That’s it really. It’s not to watch “The Dark Knight” for 30 Facebook Credits or buy pigs on “Farmville” (millions do it, I know, and why not? – it’s right there in front of us and we’re freakin’ bored with our lives).
But I think it’s time to break away and see what else is out there in the world.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea