Jon Miller – OnMedea

May 26, 2017May 26, 2017

You Haven’t Got It

Manka Bros., Khan Manka, Manka Bros. Studios, The World's Largest Media Company, Newt Gingrich, Callista Gingrich, Jackie Battley, Marianne Ginther, Jeff Weiner, Ben Silverman, Rob Johnson, Sonny Perdue, Rick Tyler, Hermain Cain, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michele Bachman, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Joseph Smith, Thomas S. Monson, Elder Cook, Elder Nelson, Elder Holland, Elder Perry, Elder Bednar, George Romney, Ann Romney, Brigham Young, Sean Hannity, Bob Dole, Ann Coulter, James Grisham, Eric Stanger, Allen & Company retreat, Anne Mulcahy, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Bobby Kotick, Carol Bartz, Charlie Rose, Cory Booker, DumbDumb, Electus, Eric Schmidt, Erin Burnett, Gina Bianchini, Harvey Weinstein, Herb Allen, Herb Allen Sun Valley Conference, Herbert Allen, Jean-Bernard Levy, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jerry Yang, John Donahue, Ken Auletta, Khan Manka, Lachlan Murdoch, Lady Gaga, Leslie Moonves, Lionel Barber, Lloyd Grohl, Manka Bros., Marc Andreessen, Marissa Mayer, Mark Pincus, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Sorrell, Mathias Dopfner, Mike Bloomberg, Niall FitzGerald, Peter Chernin, Phillippe Dauman, Reid Hoffman, Richard Parsons, Ricky Van Veen, Rob Wiesenthal, Robert L. Johnson, Ron Meyer, Rupert Murdoch, Sergey Brin, Sheryl Sandberg, Steve Jobs, Sun Valley Retreat, Sun Valley Retreat 2010, Terry Semel, Tom Freston, Tom Friedman, Ursula Burns, Vivi Nevo, Warren Buffett, World's Largest Media Company, Rupert Murdoch, Jose Maria Aznar, natalie Bancroft, Peter Barnes, Chase Carey, Kenneth Cowley, David DeVoe, Viet Dinh, Rod Eddington, Joel Klein, Andrew S.B. Knight, James Murdoch, Lachlan Murdoch, Thomas Perkins, Arthur Siskind, John Thornton, Stanley Shuman, Rebekah Brooks, Les Hinton, Teri Everett, jack Horner, Julie Henderson, Reed Nolte, Roger Ailes, Janet Nova, John Nallen, Beryl Cook, Michael Regan, Genie Gavenchak, Brian Lewis, Irena Briganti, Dan Berger, Rosabel Tao, Steven Rubenstein, Suzanne Halpin, Elisabeth Murdoch, Marvel, Thor, Donald Trump

I’m back. Thank God.

I didn’t blog most of the past year because I was writing a book that I got actual money for (just so you know, blogs don’t really pay) and because I just didn’t have an angle. Not sure I do now but I have to get back at it. It’s a discipline and I need to retrain those muscles.

So… I’m back.

But I’m back in a time when the American media is stuck. Absolutely stuck in the mud with no mule or Ford F-150 to pull us out.

To paraphrase the great film “All The President’s Men” – We haven’t got it.

Just not enough to bring President Trump down.

Don’t get me wrong – of course there is overwhelming evidence to bring down President Trump. Just not enough that sixty percent of Americas will get behind.

We are living in a country that elected a President ONLY because he said he would keep Mexicans out. REPEAT – ONLY BECAUSE HE WOULD KEEP MEXICANS OUT.

It wasn’t about jobs. It was about tax cuts. It wasn’t about NATO or the war on terror.

It was because he said he would build a wall to keep people out of America.

Even the Pope knows this is the only reason he is President. Look at that face.

Many of these same Americans that voted for him will lose their health insurance, will not get any tax break, will not get jobs… they will just get the Mexicans out. And that STILL seems to be okay with them.

We are living in a country that tolerated their ancestors when they came in the country – but have no tolerance for anything else.

But the journalists still need to be smarter.

We all want to have THE SCOOP – THE SMOKING GUN that finally brings him down – but we have to be careful.

Our challenge is – we have to be completely honest. There is no wiggle room for speculation. No wiggle room for unnamed sources.

The Trump White House is using every vague reference as leverage.

But it won’t work forever.

We must only be honest and, based on the absolute truthful facts, this President will be brought to his knees and he will resign.

Not impeached because there are no real “give me liberty or give me death” Americans on the Republican side – but he will be forced to resign because… there will be no other choice.

But right now, in a world where a candidate for congress can assault a reporter and still win, when most in the media are so horrified by this President’s lack of ability or respect for the job and only wants to get one of these overwhelmingly impeachable charges to stick… we haven’t got it.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 5, 2016September 6, 2024

If CES Were Held In Fresno, No One Would Go

I think Tech reporters really only care about CES because it is in Las Vegas.

If the show were held in a place like Fresno or Akron does anyone really believe reporters would trek from all over the world to see LG’s new roll-up screen?

Of course not.

Here’s the way it plays out every year in Vegas:

Nearly every major online publication (and print for that matter) send at least one reporter (and some send teams) to Las Vegas for the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) – and no one, except those reporters, actually cares what comes out of the show.

These writers start off strong with elaborate write-ups before they get to Las Vegas of “What To Expect From CES This Year!” or “The 10 Must-Sees @CES!”

– then they go to Vegas

– they do a decent write up of Day 1 and feign interest in a couple of redundant panels that reveal little

– then they party hard the first night because they have been so focused on the build up of CES that they just want to unwind

– and then they write a lackluster Day 2 report (because they are hungover)

– party some more

– and then sort of disappear until it’s time to drag themselves home.

Because it’s not about “new technology” (the gadgets are really just variations on themes from the past 10 years), it’s about “Vegas” and being able to get drunk on the company dime.

The same goes for the legions of companies that attempt to break new products and show off their brilliant innovations.

It’s a snow job – everyone is reprinting the same press release and then heading to dinners and cocktail parties to talk about the press release.

99.99% of the world’s population really don’t care to read about a $150,000 8K television, or a self-driving car or wearable tech – they might buy it once it hits the market if the products are good – but to read about it from hundreds of tech reporters and bloggers? Not so much.

But 99.99% do care about Vegas. Just write about your debauchery (like this CEO from last year – CES After Dark) and forget the gadgets.

No one cares.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 6, 2014January 22, 2014

Only Tech Reporters Care About CES

Ari Emanuel, Ben Silverman, Bob's Big Boy Burbank, Electus, Fred Willard, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, kara swisher, Khan Manka, Les Moonves, Manka Bros., Melinda the first lady of magic, nikki finke, Nokia Theater, OnMedea, Philippe Dauman, Rupert Murdoch, sharon waxman, Sherry Lansing, Sumner Redstone, Taylor Swift, Terry Semel, The black Eyed Peas, thewrap.com, Viacom's Holiday party, Accel Partners, Alan Eustace, Allen Blue, Ann Mather, Arvind Rajan, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Bret Taylor, Chamath Palihapitiya, Chris Hughes, Christopher Cox, Dan Rose, David Drummond, David Ebersman, David Fischer, David Henke, David Kirkpatrick, David Sze, Deep Nishar, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Ellen Levy, Elliot Schrage, Emilie Choi, Eric Schmidt, Erika Rottenberg, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jean-Luc Vaillant, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Jim Breyer, Joanna Shields, John Doerr, John Hennessy, Jon Miller, Jonathan Heiliger, Jonathan Rosenberg, Justin Aselage, Katrina Hau, Kevin Eyres, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Lori Goler, Manka Bros., Marc Andreessen, Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, Mike Gamson, Mike Murphy, Mike Schroepfer, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, Nikesh Arora, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Patrick Crane, Patrick Pichette, Paul Buchheit, Paul Madera, Paul Otellini, Peter Thiel, Ram Shriram, Reid Hoffman, Robby Kwok, Rupert Murdoch, Sergey Brin, Sheryl Sandberg, Shirley Tilghman, Shona Brown, Steve Cadigan, Steve Patrizi, Steve Sordello, Sumner Redstone, Ted Ullyot, Tony DiSanto, Toy Story 3, CES

Nearly every major online publication (and print for that matter) are sending at least one reporter to Las Vegas for the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) – and no one, except those reporters, actually cares what comes out of the show.

It’s all the same – year after year.

Reporters write up an elaborate post about “What to expect from CES this year!” –

– then they go to Vegas

– they do a decent write up of Day 1

– then they party hard the first night because they have been so focused on the build up of CES that they just want to unwind

– and then they write a lackluster Day 2 report (because they are hungover)

– party some more

– and then sort of disappear until it’s time to drag themselves home.

Believe me, if CES were held in Fresno, even the Tech reporters wouldn’t show up.

Because it’s not about “new technology” (the gadgets are really just variations on themes from the past 10 years), it’s about “Vegas” and being able to get drunk on the company dime.

The same goes for the legions of companies that attempt to break new products and show off their brilliant innovations.

It’s a snow job – everyone is reprinting the same press release and then heading to dinners and cocktail parties to talk about the press release.

99.99% of the world’s population really don’t care to read about a $150,000 4K television, or a self-driving car or wearable tech – they might buy it once it hits the market if the products are good – but to read about it from hundreds of tech reporters and bloggers? Not so much.

But 99.99% do care about Vegas. So just write about your debauchery (like this CEO from last year – CES After Dark) and forget the gadgets.

No one cares.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

April 9, 2013April 9, 2013

Aereo Will Fail

Make no mistake – there is no chance Aereo will survive longer than two or three years. That’s a best-case scenario.

Broadcast Networks are dying (it’s true) and will be dead in their current form within five years.

In five years, who is going to pay $8 a month for nothing?

Where are all those little antennas going to go once Broadcast Networks cease to exist?

What sort of business launches with this sort of insane hype that, at most, will only exist for five years?

A Barry Diller company, of course.

The only useful purpose Aereo has is that it will play a part in hastening the inevitable demise of Broadcast Networks.

That’s something, I guess.

I wrote a couple of years ago that Broadcast Networks were in denial (BROADCAST NETWORKS: ON DEATH AND DYING – April 1, 2011). That the executives were longing for the old days of The Big Five.

Now they’re just trying to survive at any cost.

New shows aren’t working. The upfronts next month will be terrible (regardless of what the networks will actually say in their trumped up press releases and over-the-top presentations).

But things aren’t completely dire.

Chase Carey has the right idea but he shouldn’t say that he’ll make FOX a cable channel as a threat to Aereo. He should make FOX a cable channel because it would be a good business decision. It’s really the ONLY business decision.

It is time for Broadcast Networks to accept that the world has changed. “The Mary Tyler Moore Show” is no longer the number one show. And new shows like “How To Live With Your Parents (For The Rest Of Your Life)” will not save you now.

Basic cable and becoming just another button on the infinite media grid of the future is the only chance ABC, CBS, MBS, NBC and FOX have to survive.

Love him or hate him (most hate him), Barry Diller has, once again, disrupted an industry in desperate need of change.

If he wasn’t so gooey I would be cheering him on.

For $20 million dollars, he is forcing a $50 billion industry to join the 21st century. Now that’s getting a bang for your buck.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Who knew Barry Diller enjoyed fishing so much? Here’s a great story of a recent fishing trip.

March 5, 2013March 21, 2018

The Pathetic, Sleazy World Of Facebook ‘Likes’

1000Memories, Accel Partners, Amish Jani, Andrew Hyde, Andrew Mason, Andy Sack, Ashton Kutcher, Aydin Senkut, Ben Silverman, Bin 38, Bob Davis, Bob Iger, Brad Feld, Brian Kempner, Chris Hughes, Christopher Steiner, Dan Nova, Daniel Gaisin, Danielle Hootnick, Dave McClure, David Brown, David Cohen, David Kirkpatrick, Demi Moore, Demo Day, Diego Gutierrez, Dustin Moskovitz, Edmond Yue, Eduardo Saverin, Emmett Shear, Eric Lefkofsky, Fergal Mullen, FirstMark Capital, Founders At Work, Francis Duong, Gaurav Tewari, Gerald Levin, Gerald Poch, Greg McAdoo, Greylock Partners, Harjeet Taggar, HBO, Highland Capital Partners, Irena Goldenberg, Jared Polis, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jessica Livingston, Jessica Mah, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, John Hsin, John Palfrey, Jon Miller, Jr., Justin Kan, Justin.tv, Khan Manka, Larry Wilson, Laurence Albukerk, Lawrence Lenihan, Li Ka-shing, Loopt, Manish Patel, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, Matt Nichols, Michael Arrington, Michael Gaiss, MySpace, Nick Marsh, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Paul Cianciolo, Paul Graham, Peter Bell, Peter Thiel, Reddit, Richard de Silva, Richard Heitzman, Rick Heitzmann, Robert Morris, Ron Conway, Rudy Adler, Rupert Murdoch, Sand Hill Road, Scott Shane, Scott Switzer, Sequoia Capital, Sergey Nazarov, Shabbir Dahod, Shawn Broderick, Sheryl Sandberg, Sterling Phillips, Sumner Redstone, Tapzilla, TechCrunch, TechStars, TextPayMe, Toy Story 3, Trevor Blackwell, Y Combinator, google, Eric Schmidt, Tina Brown, The Daily Beast, Barry Diller, Dan Lyons, Google Smear campaign, Burson-Marsteller, Chris Soghoian, Jim Goldman, John Mercurio, Mark Pincus, Zynga, Spotify, Facebook Like

Companies who believe that having millions of “Likes” on Facebook is important to their bottom line have it absolutely wrong.

“Liking” Coke or “Liking” The Avengers on Facebook isn’t going to make a person drink more Coke or see The Avengers more times – it just means they’re going to get nothing but product blasts for the rest of their lives.

I would argue it might actually make you drink less Coke because you’re so fucking annoyed with the relentless marketing from the Coca-Cola Company.

Social media would be incredibly valuable if companies would just leave it alone, make products people really like (not “Like”) and stay out of our faces.

People talking with each other (real people) and texting and emailing and chatting, etc. is the greatest marketing tool ever invented (and it wasn’t actually invented by anyone – save God). And companies are figuring out new and clever ways to fuck that up.

If you mention in your status that you are running out to Starbucks – there is really good chance your Picture and Status Update will appear in one of your friends News Feed as ads.

So, you are now, unwittingly, a Corporate Shill for Starbucks. Most people don’t like to be Corporate Shills. The term “Corporate Shill” is not a term of endearment. It makes your real friends hate you just a little bit more than they did before you pushed a product on them.

I did a little experiment over the past month. I decided to accept everyone who requested to be my friend on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/jill.kennedy.5095

I had my own little circle of work colleagues and college friends (around 30) – but decided to accept all comers in the hope that I could expand the number of “Likes” on my newly-created Company page – http://www.facebook.com/MankaBros

So I accepted and sort of went begging for “Likes” as so many people do. “If you ‘Like’ my page I’ll like your ebook or Erotic Blacklight Art Page in return…'” etc. etc. etc.

This was an eye-opening and humiliating experience – I now have 768 Friends (and counting) and not many “Likes.”

But, surprise, suddenly there was pornography in my News Feed.

There was every kind of racist Poke imaginable. Scary sexually advances. (And, to be fair, a few genuinely nice people.)

But, in general, a stunning display of what’s really out there.

Not pretty.

Are these the people Coke wants to “Like” them?

The marketing world’s latest buzz phrase is “Big Data” – gathering everybody’s information. Seriously, there are people out there whose information should never be shared except with some type of law enforcement.

Personally, I can only speak for big media companies (and myself), but I can imagine it applies to every company (and person) out there – be careful what you wish for when you start your social media campaigns because once people “Like” you, they never leave you alone.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – “LIKE” ME ON FACEBOOK!” – http://www.facebook.com/onmedea

February 27, 2013February 27, 2013

Stuck Between Old and New Media

Hollywood is stuck.

New York is stuck.

Silicon Valley is stuck.

No one can really do anything too exciting because old media is still hanging around – refusing to give up the crown.

Don’t get me wrong – OLD MEDIA IS DYING – but they’re not dead yet.

DVDs are dying – but they’re not dead yet.

We can assume that digital downloads and streaming will be the format of choice in the future – but we don’t know how it will all be quantified. Will people buy digital movies and store them in the cloud using UltraViolet and iTunes or just rent from Redbox and subscribe to Netflix?

Broadcast Networks ARE dying – but they’re not dead yet.

Will YouTube become a go to destination for entertainment on par with broadcast and cable channels? OK, that’s easy – YES – and soon.

Will Netflix realize its dream and become another HBO? Probably not. Just because “House of Cards” sort of works doesn’t mean the next five or ten shows will.

Printed books are dying – but they’re not dead yet. Will eBooks be enough to sustain an entire industry? (And Gay Moroccan Poetry definitely isn’t going to turn things around.)

Magazines are dying – YEP, they’re pretty much dead. And the online future of magazines isn’t bright at all.

Same with printed newspapers. And newspapers online will not be able to cover the costs at their current levels – so look for further contraction of that industry.

Theatrical Distribution of movies and events is most likely here to stay when many thought a couple of years ago that the format would die (though 3D WILL die).

Even Facebook and LinkedIn feel like old school media companies that are wearing out their welcome. They’ll eventually go out of business. In the meantime, they’ll just stick around and be as boring as ever.

How crazy is it that the Music Industry almost seems relatively healthy (after a decade of torture and pain)? As horrible as was, at least they’ve made the transition to digital – and now, though smaller, they’re actually growing again. But for how long? Nobody knows.

It’s limbo.

We can’t see what the future will be because the past won’t go away.

Too many unanswered questions.

With everything so completely up in the air, it’s a terrible time to be in the media business.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

December 18, 2012December 23, 2012

2013: Endgame For Moguls

Old Hollywood just got another year older and closer to death.

In fact, it’s getting harder and harder for Old Hollywood to get out of bed in the morning.

Food doesn’t taste as good. Hangovers are a daily occurrence.

In short, Old Hollywood is not well.

And with each passing year, as movie studios and broadcast networks become increasingly irrelevant, my thoughts are about real estate.

What is going to happen to all those soundstages and sprawling campuses scattered around Los Angeles and the world when no one needs them anymore?

Soundstages built in the early 20th century by visionaries from Poland, Hungary, New York and Kansas City.

Clearly they won’t be used as much in the future as production costs for high quality content continue to drop and new visionary kids from everywhere else in the world are able to compete head-to-head with the best Hollywood writers and directors.

Perhaps they will be torn down and apartments built. But apartments in those areas are for young writers and actors who move to L.A. to chase that Hollywood dream.

They don’t have to move here anymore.

Perhaps one studio will be turned into a museum of what Hollywood used to look like.

It’s a lot of land, man, and the shopping mall business isn’t so good these days either.

It’s going to be a real problem one day.

As I said earlier this year, YouTube’s Original Content Strategy Is Working and that should put every remaining media mogul on high alert.

The 1975 when millions of families crowded the television on a SATURDAY NIGHT to watch one of the three networks is over.

Now, in all likelihood, a family of five is watching or doing five different things on a Saturday night (and the rest of the week for that matter).

And this has been true for a few years.

In 2013, another profound and symbolic pillar will crumble in the epic story of the Decline and Fall of the Hollywood Empire.

The Mogul.

2013 will see most of the remaining media moguls pathetically fade away from relevance with little fanfare. And that’s sad.

WHO IS LEAVING?

1. Sumner Redstone – Many would say he has already left (despite his attempt to look youthful with that shocking sprayed on orange hair). Sumner has desperately clung to power just as he clung to the side of the hotel ledge years ago to survive a fire. Sumner will be the first to leave in 2013 either by death or senility (though many would argue he has been dead and senile for the past 25 years).

2. Rupert Murdoch – Enough with this guy and his phone tapping and continued interest in buying newspapers. He’s done. There is an outside chance the family empire could continue if Rupert appointed his daughter Elisabeth to the top job (I would buy the stock if that happened). But his continue insistence on giving his idiot sons top jobs will, no doubt, destroy all that he spent his entire life building.

3. Barry Diller – Barry Diller is just tired of it all. Does anyone really think he is excited about owning Ben Silverman’s ridiculous company or CollegeHumor or The Daily Beast or Zwinky or Sports Pickle? Sail away, Barry. The media world no longer needs you. You had a good run. Now go get drunk.

4. Jeffrey Katzenberg – The last mogul standing of DreamWorks SKG (one of the last valiant attempts made to build a true media empire like the old days), Katzenberg will sell DreamWorks Animation for a few billion less than he would have hoped and leave the Hollywood scene. He will go on to become equally annoying in the Art Collection scene.

CLINGING TO POWER

1. The Weinstein Brothers (Harvey and Bob) – Despite several high profile movies (Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Django Unchained) that will probably win quite a few awards this season, the Weinsteins are working with a business model from 1985. Attempted diversification into TV, publishing and interactive nearly cost them everything a few years ago. What they know is how to buy, market and get Awards for small to medium sized movies. And we know where that business is headed.

2. Ryan Kavanaugh – Calling him a mogul is generous (to say the least). Attempted mogul more like it. For some reason people keep giving him money. Hopefully, that stops soon and he is forced to land his helicopter not in Beverly Hills but somewhere out in Palmdale where he can live out his existence with a few other characters from “Day of the Locust.”

WHO IS STAYING?

Khan Manka, Jr. – Despite horrible performances year-over-year in both film and television (and publishing and music, etc.), Khan Manka, Jr. remains firmly at the top of the world’s largest media company. Even though he publicly states how much he hates the job and would rather be at his house in the Seychelles, he continues to stay year-after-year and I don’t see that changing anytime in the near or far future.

2. Thomas Tull (Legendary) – Even though Legendary is more of a high-end financing and production outfit than a media empire, Tull is eyeing much larger things and has the money to do it. How far he actually takes the media empire concept is the question. Is Legendary a new DreamWorks or actually something that will be successful?

3. Hed family of Rovio (Angry Birds) is the closest thing we have these days to a new generation media mogul (and I wish Raj, Mikael and Niklas Hed nothing but the best. DON’T SELL – BUILD!). Like Walt Disney and George Lucas before them, the Heds have a real chance to build an empire from a single group of characters. Their passion and ambition is infectious and they see enormous potential while others laugh in their face. The perfect scenario for global conquest.

—————–

So, 2013, endgame for moguls.

The big ones will fall.

Some smaller ones may rise (on a lower scale).

It will never be the same.

Where is Ted Turner when you really need him?

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – John Malone and Brian Roberts may be considered moguls in today’s terms. I just find them too boring to write about.

October 4, 2012October 4, 2012

Facebook Is Irrelevant

So… Facebook has announced it has passed ONE BILLION USERS.

Sounds like a reason for a huge celebration. What an amazingly awesome global community!

We should all rejoice together because we built it… together!

But unlike the supermarket that rewards its one millionth customer with balloons, gifts and plaques and everyone is so happy for the store, the only reaction to Facebook’s announcement is people commenting “Facebook sucks!” “Are they counting all 10 of my accounts including my dogs?” “I quit Facebook months ago.” etc. etc. etc.

Facebook has a problem and it’s one that it will not overcome.

Facebook is irrelevant.

Nobody cares about it anymore. There are no balloons, no cheers, no tears, just… meh.

Sure, people use it to post photos of drinking, of babies and bike riding for charity but we, the connected world, have moved past that boring old shit that used to be slightly cool.

I’m sure to that comment Facebook would say – “No, no, wait, you’re wrong, Jill – people also post funny sayings and signs that they find amusing.”

Indeed, they’re right. How am I supposed to know I should “have an awesome day” if I didn’t see it posted in the morning by one of my “friends”?

In the past, I have written that Facebook Is Worthless, Overvalued, and Must Be Stopped – but now, I just don’t care about it anymore.

I have become Facebook indifferent – it means absolutely nothing to me.

That’s not the way it was supposed to be.

The swagger and smirking of the executives and investors before the IPO made it seem like this was a company like no other on the planet – a truly game changing experience that would actually… change the world.

The world did not change because of Facebook.

We all have the same problems that generations before us had. Politicians still use the same rhetoric. American flags are still burned at overseas Embassies. Famine and hurricanes still occur.

The only positive thing Facebook ever did was allow us to see what our high school and college friends look like today. It doesn’t mean we’re going to have dinner with them or have an actual conversation. But we do get to see if they got fat. That’s it and I suppose that’s worth something.

During the first Presidential Debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney the social media winner of the night was… Twitter.

Nearly all the media outlets and pundits were talking about what happened on Twitter during the debates. Not Facebook. Not LinkedIn. Not Google Plus.

To be serious, I have no idea how they add their numbers to conclude that one billion people are on Facebook.

Perhaps they should say one billion accounts have been set by about 200 million people? We all know people who have multiple accounts (almost everyone) – accounts for dogs, literary characters and just plain fake names that we all use to hide from our “friends” and supposedly Facebook is cracking down on this practice. (By the way, you can “friend” me here.)

And that’s another reason the site sucks – who wants to be completely real on Facebook?

We’re not trying to get a job. We’re not running for office. We’re just trying to spend a few minutes out of our day looking at drunken babies and trying not to be monetized.

So congratulations, Facebook on one billion users – one billion bored, indifferent, and dissatisfied users.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – I just thought of a way Facebook could be relevant… they could buy Twitter.

July 24, 2012July 26, 2012

Should We Believe Facebook’s Earnings?

Today is a big day for FB:NASDAQ.

The first earnings release after a pretty crappy IPO.

Needless to say, earnings and guidance must destroy expectations.

This is important for everyone who has a stake in the company – from those who had blind faith in the IPO and bought whatever meager shares they could, to the early investor billionaires and millionaires who were counting on a lot more than they’ve received thus far (greed’s a real pisser), to all the Facebook employees that have lost a bit of their swagger (and future riches) over the last couple of months.

In fact, Silicon Valley as a whole has lost its swagger a bit because of this IPO flop.

A blow-out earnings report would allow all those who were doubted and shunned to say “nah nah nah nah naaaah – told you so – we rock you suck, etc.”

Which makes me wonder, if, indeed, this is a blow-out earnings report despite what many analysts are predicting (consensus: not a blow-out), should the numbers be believed?

Is there a temptation by management and the number crunchers to goose things a bit for this very important first earnings report? Juggle some things. Move stuff around – make it up later. I’m sure they feel they’re smart enough to get around that little “random regulatory audit thing.”

They’ve got millions of made-up users – why not millions of made-up dollars?

There must be that temptation, right? I mean, how much could the SEC fine be in the scheme of things?

I’m sure the immediate reaction to such a wild, speculative (and probably fictional) premise is – “I’m shocked! How dare you presume that Facebook – with its long history of supreme ethics and outstanding morals would even dream of such a thing?”

Maybe it’s just me.

But if we hear on Thursday that there are now over 1 billion users – I’m just not going to believe it (especially when you take out the 200-300 million users that are either animals, aliases or fictional characters).

If they say that people are spending more time than ever on Facebook – I’m just not going to believe it.

If we hear on Thursday that advertising on Facebook has never been better and will continue to grow into 2013 – I’m just not going to believe it.

It is Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg’s job on Thursday is to convince us that things are awesome and getting ‘awesomer’ every day. And when they say that, I am not going to believe it.

But, truth be told, I am not the most bullish person when it comes to Facebook.

After all, I did write “Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale),” and “Facebook Is Worthless,” and “Facebook Must Be Stopped,” and “All The Facebook’s Men,” and “Advertise On Facebook And Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls,” and “Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015,” and “Y Combinator Is a Stupid Idea” (I just threw in that last one for fun).

But you do have to wonder – it is soooooo important NOT to disappoint and pressure is coming from everywhere to make sure that they don’t.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 27, 2012May 15, 2012

Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale)

Once upon a time, in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park, California, there was a company called Facebook.

This company was unlike any other (sorry, make that ‘like MANY others’) in that it connected people from around world through a magical and glorious technical achievement called the Internet.

Everyone loved Facebook:

“Oh my God, it is so easy to upload pictures of my baby!”

“I can’t believe I found all my old high school and college friends so easily!”

“Hey everyone, I’m off to get a coffee – can’t start my day without coffee!”

People from around the world chatted, and shared, and reconnected. There was something really exciting going on in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park.

But then, one day, because Facebook was growing so so so very large – and its bills were growing so so so much – it needed to somehow make money.

Facebook was so kind that they didn’t want to charge people for the privilege of using its service – so it added advertising. Advertising so tiny that the people of the world didn’t even noticed the ads were there.

“There are ads on Facebook? You know, I’ve never seen one – and I certainly have never clicked on one! Good for them.”

Perhaps Mean Old Mr. Advertiser started to realize that no one was clicking or even noticing his ads.

But little Facebook still needed to get paid – I mean, even a whore has to eat – so they decided to work something out with Mean Old Mr. Advertiser.

Maybe they could somehow leverage their size and sell the personal information of their 900 million users. Would that keep Mean Old Mr. Advertiser off their backs so they could resume their happy life of connecting the world and bringing nothing but joy?

Facebook was so kind to its users that they even added a “Like” button (because “Like” is much nicer than “Dislike” and Coca-Cola doesn’t want to see how many people “Dislike” Coke Zero).

It was so simple, users could either “Like” something or choose not to hit the “Like” button. It was up to the user.

That worked for awhile until the users of the world started to realize what was happening. Many users got angry and felt their privacy was being invaded.

About 15 people actually quit Facebook (while another 100 million signed up).

After a few months, things calmed in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park and the people on Facebook – to a lesser degree – felt fairly happy again.

But then, one day, Facebook decided that the users of the world needed to share every bit of information about their lives – from birth to even death – and put it all into a very conforming and dizzying glop of data called Timeline.

Mean Old Mr. Advertiser LOVED the idea of Timeline.

Finally, Facebook was thinking like him. Now they got the idea. Mean Old Mr. Advertiser could scour the lives of the people of the world and target them with goods and services that they may or may not enjoy.

And somehow, in just a brief eight years of existence – little Facebook grew and grew and grew and became worth $100 BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS! Oh, goodness, pardon me. (An IPO last year would been insane! What a missed opportunity!… but I digress.)

Well, from here the story gets a little tragic.

The beaten down people of the world and users of Facebook grew so exhausted from the daily overhauls of the site (which were necessary to maximize revenue) that they actually stopped spending time on Facebook – instead reading real books to their children and enjoying the outside world.

Comments started to appear on other websites (yes, there are actually other websites) saying they hate Facebook, are never going back and are quitting.

Poor little Facebook. They just wanted to HELP the world – not FUCK OVER the world.

How could a crappy redesign and a selling of their soul piss people off so much?

It’s just a website after all (one that is on its way to becoming WORTHLESS and must be STOPPED for the good of the world!… one more digression).

I mean, why do the people of the world care so much?

Well, we all know how the story ends.

Disgruntled engineers (and let’s assume an MBA or two) who helped create the chaos from the direction of Uncle Mark and Aunt Sheryl, began grumbling about their need to become millionaires and billionaires like so many of their friends.

The only way to stop them from leaving the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park – and going to, oh, say, the dangerous crack alleys of Mountain View and Cupertino to seek their fortune – was to take the company public.

By selling $5 or $10 billion dollars in stock to the ‘public’ (at a BULLSHIT valuation of $100 billion!) everyone could become rich and (yes) happy.

So at least the employees of Facebook will now be happy. The people of the world, who are seriously beginning to hate Facebook and are either leaving or staying away in droves, are less and less happy every day.

But Mean Old Mr. Facebook couldn’t care less – the users can go fuck themselves.

“Just put your freakin’ family photos in the template we have provided, “Like” the new Coke Zero, play the stupid Zynga games, pay for a movie rental, pay for a music subscription, and keep your stupid mouth shut. We’re not getting to a trillion dollar valuation from pictures of your goddamned baby!”

Mean Old Mr. Facebook is right. The User is wrong.

The moral of the story: Don’t screw your users. They’re the ones that built you up and they’re the ones that will bring you down.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea