Peter Roth – OnMedea

April 6, 2010April 6, 2011

TBS Gets It Right

Andrew Heller, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barbro Holmberg, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Brian Roberts, Charlie Rose, Conan O'Brien, David Letterman, David Levy, Dawn Ostroff, Deborah Wright, Frank Caufield, Fred Hassan, GE shareholder, George Lopez, Greg D'Alba, Jack Wakshlag, james Barksdale, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, jessica Einhorn, Jill Kennedy, Jim McCaffrey, Jim Walton, Jimmy Fallon, Jimmy Kimmel, John Ferriter, John Kampfe, Jon Stewart, Josefin Lonnborg, Kelly Regal, Kenneth Novack, Khan Manka, Les Moonves, Louise Sams, mama's family, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Mark Steinberg, Mathias Dopfner, Michael Miles, Nancy Tellum, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, Phil Kent, Robert Clark, Scott Teissler, Sharon Waxman, Stephen Bollenbach, Stephen Colbert, Steven Koonin, Stuart Snyder, TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The Office, Tony DiSanto, Vicky Lawrence, William Barr, William Morris Endeavor

So… Conan O’Brien has decided to go to TBS. Like him or not, get his comedy or not, Conan immediately brings a “hip” factor to TBS where it currently has none. Whether that will be enough to truly take the network to another level is a huge unknown at this point.

I have a feeling this announcement has taken the wind out of the sails of the “I’m With Coco” movement. For some reason, I think they wanted him to stay off TV and start some crazy live streaming Internet-only revolution from a shack in the desert. Sorry freaks. Perhaps you can steal your basic cable feed and still feel like a revolutionary.

This is a big bet for TBS but one it can certainly afford to take. Two revenue streams RULE! If it doesn’t work, they can always move “Lopez Tonight” (with its 1.0 rating) back to 11pm and put the always profitable “Ab Roller Deluxe” informercial on at midnight.

The biggest obstacle is the fact that TBS still feels (to me – and I’m not alone) like a network that airs nothing but “Mama’s Family” reruns and very low quality VHS tapes of 1980s comedies. I know this isn’t the case anymore and they actually do have some solid programming with “The Office” and “Family Guy” reruns, etc. and have had some success in original programming with all those Tyler Perry shows (What, are there 10 series now? All with 350 episode commitments?).

But adding Conan puts TBS on a different level – a network level with a big advantage – they don’t need Leno-size ratings to call it a “hit”.

Imagine the spinmeisters at Turner the day after its debut: “Late Night Cable Talk Show’s Biggest Night Ever!”; “Conan Conquers Cable!”; “The Colbert Killer!”… “2.0 in Metered Markets – 18-49”… Okay, they won’t put that one in the Trades but that’s about what we can expect on the high end. If a 2.0 late night rating is worth a $100 million investment, then TBS has made the right move.

Personally, I think it IS the right move – if anything just to improve their image. All the other shit that’s on TBS will suddenly be given a second look which may make people slow down the remote as they’re passing by on their way to USA or FX.

For Conan, I think this is also the best move. Though if he ultimately fails on TBS, his career is over (unless he is willing to take the 1:30a.m. Last Call slot from what’s his name – that guy that dated Tara Reid). Not going to Fox and being beaten badly by Jay Leno was a very smart move by Conan. And a very smart move by Fox – which doesn’t have two revenue streams (yet) and, thus, doesn’t have money to burn.

So… good luck, Conan. You have made a good match. And I can’t wait to hear all those jokes you’ll make about what a crappy network TBS is. The crappy network that is paying you $100 million dollars.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

March 2, 2010April 6, 2011

Leno The King

Well, that didn’t take long. There will be lots of “I’m With Coco” and David Letterman supporters that will say “It was expected…”, “Everyone was just curious about the switch…”, “Jay has all those Olympians on the show…”

Whatever.

I write this not as a Jay Leno fan (far from it) – but as a practical person who looks at the numbers. As I said when there was a debate over whether NBC should keep Conan or Jay… of all the late night hosts on all the networks, Jay Leno is simply the one that more people want to watch. I’m not talking about “quality” or “educated” people here. I’m talking about more PEOPLE.

In his first night back in the 11:35pm time slot, Jay Leno destroyed the competition. The Tonight Show with Jay Leno got a 5.7/14 share; David Letterman (3.0/8 share); Nightline/Jimmy Kimmell Live (1.8/6 share). Tonight, Jay has Sarah Palin and Shaun White on the show. Who do you think will win?

I think Conan may want to avoid the direct competition and forget about Fox. I’m sure Fox executives are thinking the same thing today.

[Note to Jeff Zucker: These results are not because of your brilliance, they are in spite of your ignorance. The Olympics will lose over $200 million for your network and you won’t make that up with “The Marriage Ref” or “Parenthood” ratings. You will be fired.]

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 22, 2010April 6, 2011

Jay Leno and Sarah Palin

Love him or hate him, there is a reason Jay Leno has been #1 and will soon be #1 again in the late night wars.

He will book anyone necessary to get ratings – as evidenced by the top guest on his second night back – Ms. Sarah Palin.

Add to the mix Shaun White, Lindsey Vonn, Apolo Ohno, Brad Paisley, the cast of Jersey Shore and I think it’s game over for Dave as soon as Jay returns. The Letterman vs. Leno battle will last all but one week.

It’s even possible that by week two most people will have forgotten there ever was a ‘Tonight Show controversy’ which will mean less and less “I’m with Coco” fanatics inviting you to join Facebook clubs.

So what have we learned from this whole debacle? As long as there are publicists and stars who need publicity, the past is meaningless. Hollywood is a “what-have-you-done-for-me-lately” town.

And what will Jay do for these media hungry whores stars? Deliver ratings that Conan O’Brien, Jimmy Kimmel or David Letterman can’t (unless Dave could book Sarah Palin again).

And ratings are all that matters.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 22, 2010April 6, 2011

UPDATE: Jeff Zucker Still Has A Job

The Billion Dollar Question is – WHY?

If I were to talk directly to Jeff Zucker’s current boss (Jeffrey Immelt) and future boss (Brian Roberts), I would quote my new hero, Dutch speed skater Sven Kramer, and say “Are you stoopid?”

Even if we all could forget about the recent mistakes that have been made under Jeff Zucker’s watch…

Lowest rated network
Jay/Conan debacle
Hiring Ben Silverman for… anything
The absolutely horrendous Olympic coverage which not only sucks but will LOSE millions of dollars. (The latest horrible decision was to air the TAPE-DELAYED 2-man Bobsled coverage on NBC over one of the best LIVE Olympic hockey games in years – USA vs. Canada. I’m sure JZ would say it was a brilliant move on his part to force people to find MSNBC on their televisions.)

… at this point, it’s a matter of credibility. And he has none.

Imagine Jeff Zucker standing in front of a group of Wall Street investor analysts with his PowerPoint slides and telling them “This is the future of television…” “This is the direction Comcast/NBC needs to go…” “Here are my ideas on how to turn things around…” etc.

Seriously, who the hell would believe he has the answers? And why does he even get the chance to give the answers. NBC was once great. All the missteps really started to snowball AFTER he become Chairman & CEO. He is into his fourth year and has thus far proven nothing to nobody.

Basta. Enough.

However, in an effort to make my entries a little more positive, I’m going to attempt to end them all on an upbeat note. So… that said… I do like the bulky ski resort sweaters Jeff Zucker has been wearing as he talks up NBC’s suck ass Olympic coverage on CNBC.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 18, 2010April 6, 2011

Can Elin Woods Learn From Conan O’Brien?

As Tiger Woods slowly reemerges from hiding and Team-Tiger Damage Control goes full throttle, there is an interesting parallel to be made between the Tiger/Elin Woods drama and the NBC/Conan O’Brien drama (which cost all of us a few months out of our lives).

Imagine Conan and Elin on one side and Tiger, Jay Leno, Jeff Zucker and NBC and on the other.

The parallel begins with a couple of a wide-eyed youths – dreaming of the big time.

Conan: Becomes a comedy writer for such shows as “The Simpsons” and “Saturday Night Live”, works his way up to get his own late night talk show on NBC but deep-down only imagines himself the host of one show… the crown jewel of the late night talk shows… “The Tonight Show”.

Elin: Is a nanny for a Swedish golf pro and hangs around a lot of single golfers on tour but really only imagines herself with one man… the crown jewel of golfers… Tiger Woods.

———————————————————————–

Conan: Finally gets “The Tonight Show” in 2009 after slumming it for 16 years at 12:35am.

Elin: Finally gets a marriage proposal in 2004 from Tiger Woods after slumming it as a nanny for Jesper Parnevik’s kids.

———————————————————————–

Conan: Jay Leno retires from “The Tonight Show” and prepares to launch an ill-conceived prime time talk show – “The Jay Leno Show”. Conan, believing NBC’s promise, happily takes over the reigns of “The Tonight Show” and looks forward to a long and prosperous run as host.

Elin: Tiger Woods retires from his crazy single days and prepares for an ill-conceived life of domestic bliss. Elin, believing Tiger, happily sets up a life of wealth and prosperity (and has two children to complete the ideal picture).

———————————————————————–

Conan: Jay Leno’s ratings crash after one week on the air. Jeff Zucker at NBC begins to question the decision to move Jay to prime time especially considering Conan O’Brien’s horrible ratings.

Elin: Tiger Woods crashes a Cadillac Escalade into a tree after Elin Woods decides to move a few of his teeth from the front to the back of his mouth with a 7 iron.

————————————————————————

Conan: Begins to feel humiliated by rumors of Jay Leno returning to late night.

Elin: Begins to feel humiliated by rumors of Tiger Woods having 11 mistresses (6 of them ‘serious’).

————————————————————————

Conan: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Conan decides to leave NBC with $45 million.

Elin: Rather than take the suck ass deal offered, Elin decides to hold out for $800 million! Take that suckers.

———————————————————-
As for the future? Here’s my guess:

Conan: Having finalized the divorce from NBC, agrees to a deal with TBS.
Elin: After finalizing the divorce from Tiger, agrees to go on a disastrous first date with Rory Sabbatini (or some other less successful golfer that wishes he was Tiger Woods). She breaks her promise not to talk about Tiger’s affairs and loses everything. The book doesn’t sell and she moves in with John Daly.

————————————————————–

Dear Elin:

Conan couldn’t in good conscious stay at NBC (even though his dream life went up in flames) and you can’t stay with Tiger (even though your dream life has gone up in flames). Take the money and run to that house in Sweden. You will have a better future.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 21, 2010April 7, 2011

Letterman vs. Leno

The Conan exit deal is done – probably the largest payout in television history for someone averaging a 2.5 rating.

It is presumed he will go to Fox and get a 2.0 rating at 11:00 (my guess is reruns of The Simpsons on local affiliates do better than that).

So, with apologies to Jimmy Kimmel, Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, George Lopez, Charlie Rose, etc., it comes down, once again, to Letterman vs. Leno.

Who will win the ratings battle (long-term) once they resume head-to-head competition March 1, 2010?

It’s very simple:
Jay Leno wins – without a doubt.

Here’s why:

DEMOGRAPHICS: Late night talk show viewers are not the Taco-Bell-eating slacker college students that most of these hosts think they’re ‘in touch with’. That demo is watching The Daily Show, Colbert, Adult Swim or they’re online or playing video games (maybe they’re not consuming any media and are out pounding drinks and, God willing, conversing with the opposite sex). So, older viewers are watching Jay and Dave – and older viewers prefer Jay. It’s warm and safe television with Headlines and Jaywalking. Dave is ‘too edgy’ for older America, even in his advanced years.

VACATION: Jay is notorious for working 46-48 weeks a year. Dave works… less than that. Even if Dave wins the first few weeks after Jay returns in March (as expected), Jay will pick up viewers once Dave goes on his first long vacation.

WORK ETHIC: While I am not doubting that Dave works very hard to put on his show four nights a week, Jay is indefatigable. He always seems to be out with the public, doing stand-up, corporate events, car shows… almost anything the network asks him to do. Jay has a high visibility factor that Dave… doesn’t have. (Not that you need that to succeed – Johnny Carson was a painfully shy recluse and did just fine.) However, when you’re trying to win back the hearts and minds of your viewers, being visible with “your public” can go a long way.

HISTORY: Jay Leno has been a consistent ratings winner for 17 years. Yes, bad press and public sentiment has damaged that but most of Jay’s fans could care less about ‘The Tonight Show’ debacle (though, I think everyone would love to see Jeff Zucker get fired).

Finally, Jay spent 20 years in comedy clubs across the country before getting ‘The Tonight Show’ and he cut his teeth in that ruthless, back-stabbing world. If he survived the shit that went on in those clubs, he can survive almost anything.

Dave did quite a bit of stand-up in the 1970s, yes, but never really immersed himself into that world. Being a great comic was not on his radar. He has always been perceived (as he wished) as a TV guy.

Jay is a comic first and a TV guy next – which is why his fans keep watching – they simply want to hear jokes on ‘The Tonight Show’ told by a comic and not just a “funny person” doing bits.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Where were all these new Conan fans when he really needed them – over the summer when he started hosting The Tonight Show? If he had the ratings then that he has now – there is no controversy. Jay would be out and Conan would be in.

January 19, 2010April 8, 2011

Jay Leno and NBC: Damage Control Begins

OK. So Conan is gone. Jay is back at 11:35. What’s next? Damage control.

Over the next few weeks, we can expect to see NBC Universal’s ‘A Team’ of publicists begin the seemingly impossible task of resuscitating the images of Jay Leno, The Tonight Show and NBC.

The Winter Olympics couldn’t have come at a better time to provide a necessary distraction – and it allows NBC Universal’s corporate publicists an extra two weeks to rebuild NBC’s shattered image.

So, here’s what needs to be done:

Step 1: Jeff Zucker must be fired. Regardless of what really happened behind the scenes, his name is synonymous with the total failure of NBC and it is perceived by the public that he is the main reason the Conan/Jay issue became such a mess. The fact that he actually believed the best way to handle the situation was to attack Conan O’Brien illustrates his complete inability to manage a crisis.

This is not someone that Comcast needs at the top of the new company to be formed and it’s, frankly, not someone that anyone needs (unless he wants to go join his buddy Ben Silverman in his soon-to-be failed company – Electus). That would be fine with me.

Step 2: Provide tons of food aid to Haitian earthquake victims (with the optional The Tonight Show With Jay Leno branding on each bag). It’s hard for late night comedians to make fun of someone who is providing real help to people in desperate need.

Step 3: Develop really good / meaningful shows and stick with them even if the ratings aren’t there. While this may result in lower profits in the short-term, NBC needs to convince viewers that they are capable of producing quality entertainment and don’t just make crappy shows about who can lose the most weight.

That’s it. Jay will go back on at 11:35 and will most likely become #1 again in a month or so. Major stars will not boycott Jay because the late night shows are vital to the promotion of their upcoming films and television series.

Sure, right now everyone is on Conan’s side but once Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts have films to promote, they’ll be right there back on Jay’s couch. Without a doubt.

If these steps are taken, NBC should be in a pretty good position when they announce their fall 2010 shows at the May upfronts.

However, if Step 1 is ignored – all bets are off.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 14, 2010April 8, 2011

The Tonight Show With Jay Leno

ABC, Angela Bromstad, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Beverly Hills Hotel, Brian Roberts, CBS, Comcast, Conan O'Brien, CSI: NY, Dawn Ostroff, Deadline Hollywood, Dick Wolf, Eastwick, ER, GE shareholder, Gossip Girl, Jay Leno, Jay Leno has Failed, Jay Leno ratings, Jeff Gaspin, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jill Kennedy, Jimmy Fallon, John Ferriter, Julianna Margulies, Kate Gosselin, Khan Manka, Law & Order, Manka Bros., Marc Graboff, Nikki Finke, Octomom, OnMedea, Paul Telegdy, Peter Roth, phoenix rising from the ashes, Producers Caucus Panel, Sharon Waxman, Stop all the clocks..., TCA Winter Press Tour, Terry Semel, The CW, thewrap.com, Tonight Show With Jay Leno, W.H. Auden, Warner Bros., William Morris Endeavor

Done deal. The Tonight Show with Jay Leno from 11:35 – 12:35. Conan O’Brien: SOL.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 14, 2010April 11, 2011

Jeff Immelt, Brian Roberts: Jeff Zucker Has Got To Go

But this was ignored (granted, he may not even know OnMedea exists) and now it has become a PR disaster. Does he not see the total public support for Conan now that he is “the victim”? Not that Zucker gives a shit about public opinion – if he did, maybe NBC wouldn’t consistently be the #4 network.

Conan didn’t have to be “the victim”. He could have been portrayed as a “Wall Street bank” like Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan – who just got a $65 million payout bonus for doing no work.

Here’s a statement that should have been read two weeks ago: “We are canceling ‘The Jay Leno Show‘ and moving Jay back to ‘The Tonight Show‘ where he belongs – and where he was #1 for many years. Conan O’Brien has been a valuable member of the NBC family, but the ratings at 11:30 were not what we had hoped. However, we have made things right with Conan and paid out his contract – $65 million – and wish him luck wherever he may go next.”

Done.

But no, team Zucker (which includes the newly-installed Jeff Gaspin… that press conference on Sunday was a textbook on how not to handle something) decided to insult Conan by giving the failed Jay Leno the coveted 11:35pm time slot (a decision I agree with from a ratings / business standpoint) and asking Conan to move back to 12:05am. Conan should have been let go (the ratings WERE bad) and he should have been given HIS FULL PAYOUT. Simple. No PR disaster.

Now that little Zucker has insulted Conan AGAIN by saying he will keep him off the air for 3 1/2 years because “he failed to live up to his promise to me.” Are you fucking kidding me? Basta!

So… Jeff Immelt and Brian Roberts – as a GE and Comcast shareholder – I would ask that you please end this ridiculous, horribly managed crisis by firing Jeff Zucker – not when the Comcast acquisition goes through – now.

January 11, 2010April 12, 2011

Jeff Gaspin – What The Hell Was That?

The Jay Leno Show cancellation announcement by Jeff Gaspin – Chairman NBC Entertainment – was handled in just about the worst way possible. It should have so simple: Announce the news; admit it was mistake and talk about the exciting changes to come. That’s it.

Instead, Jeff Gaspin’s announcement at the TCA Winter Press Tour was a stunning display on how not to do something. He was defensive (even blaming other parts of the company) and basically said he didn’t really know what they were going to do next.

Let’s break down the key quotes:

Gaspin: “I would have liked nothing more than to give this (The Jay Leno Show) a 52-week try.” (You’re the freakin’ Chairman of NBC Entertainment – don’t you have the power to give it a try for as long you’d like no matter who is against it? Especially if you would have ‘liked nothing more’?

Gaspin: “This was not an issue for the network…” (No, of course not, NBC kicks ass! Fourth place ass. But it still kicks ass!)

Gaspin: “… it was an issue for our affiliates.” (That’s it, blame another part of your company. One great leadership trait is knowing whom should be blamed in a time of crisis.)

Gaspin: “We were making money at 10 p.m. I think, over time, (‘Leno’s’ ratings) might have started to grow. For the network, it was not yet a wrong decision.” (You really went out on a limb on that one. ‘It was not yet a wrong decision?’ What the fuck is that? Come on, Jeff, just say ‘Yes, it was the wrong decision. We failed but we’re going to fix it.’ The culture at NBC has got to change. When the Chairman of the company is afraid of accountability, what hope is there for the rest of the executive team?)

So, Jeff, was “Leno” a mistake?

Gaspin: “I don’t think it’s wrong to take chances. We might have been too early on this one.” (Ah, I see… you’re just ahead of your time. The world is not ready for the bold programming choices coming from NBC. The world is not ready for a powder puff monologue followed by lame celebrity interviews at 10pm. Fight on, lone ranger, one day the world will catch up to your vision.)

You want to know how to avoid a “PR Issue”, Jeff – nut-up and take the blame for a mistake. Obviously, your boss Jeff Zucker is too much of a wimp to acknowledge failure. As I said in October, it’s a stupid TV show that didn’t work – it’s not that big of a deal. It was a programming choice that didn’t work. Simple as that.

Now, get out there and make the best “Law & Order” spin-off that you can.

Godspeed, Jeff Gaspin.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea