Peter Thiel – Page 2

January 27, 2012May 15, 2012

Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale)

1000Memories, Accel Partners, Amish Jani, Andrew Hyde, Andrew Mason, Andy Sack, Ashton Kutcher, Aydin Senkut, Ben Silverman, Bin 38, Bob Davis, Bob Iger, Brad Feld, Brian Kempner, Chris Hughes, Christopher Steiner, Dan Nova, Daniel Gaisin, Danielle Hootnick, Dave McClure, David Brown, David Cohen, David Kirkpatrick, Demi Moore, Demo Day, Diego Gutierrez, Dustin Moskovitz, Edmond Yue, Eduardo Saverin, Emmett Shear, Eric Lefkofsky, Fergal Mullen, FirstMark Capital, Founders At Work, Francis Duong, Gaurav Tewari, Gerald Levin, Gerald Poch, Greg McAdoo, Greylock Partners, Harjeet Taggar, HBO, Highland Capital Partners, Irena Goldenberg, Jared Polis, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jessica Livingston, Jessica Mah, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, John Hsin, John Palfrey, Jon Miller, Jr., Justin Kan, Justin.tv, Khan Manka, Larry Wilson, Laurence Albukerk, Lawrence Lenihan, Li Ka-shing, Loopt, Manish Patel, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, Matt Nichols, Michael Arrington, Michael Gaiss, MySpace, Nick Marsh, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Paul Cianciolo, Paul Graham, Peter Bell, Peter Thiel, Reddit, Richard de Silva, Richard Heitzman, Rick Heitzmann, Robert Morris, Ron Conway, Rudy Adler, Rupert Murdoch, Sand Hill Road, Scott Shane, Scott Switzer, Sequoia Capital, Sergey Nazarov, Shabbir Dahod, Shawn Broderick, Sheryl Sandberg, Sterling Phillips, Sumner Redstone, Tapzilla, TechCrunch, TechStars, TextPayMe, Toy Story 3, Trevor Blackwell, Y Combinator, google, Eric Schmidt, Tina Brown, The Daily Beast, Barry Diller, Dan Lyons, Google Smear campaign, Burson-Marsteller, Chris Soghoian, Jim Goldman, John Mercurio, Mark Pincus, Zynga, Spotify

Once upon a time, in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park, California, there was a company called Facebook.

This company was unlike any other (sorry, make that ‘like MANY others’) in that it connected people from around world through a magical and glorious technical achievement called the Internet.

Everyone loved Facebook:

“Oh my God, it is so easy to upload pictures of my baby!”

“I can’t believe I found all my old high school and college friends so easily!”

“Hey everyone, I’m off to get a coffee – can’t start my day without coffee!”

People from around the world chatted, and shared, and reconnected. There was something really exciting going on in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park.

But then, one day, because Facebook was growing so so so very large – and its bills were growing so so so much – it needed to somehow make money.

Facebook was so kind that they didn’t want to charge people for the privilege of using its service – so it added advertising. Advertising so tiny that the people of the world didn’t even noticed the ads were there.

“There are ads on Facebook? You know, I’ve never seen one – and I certainly have never clicked on one! Good for them.”

Perhaps Mean Old Mr. Advertiser started to realize that no one was clicking or even noticing his ads.

But little Facebook still needed to get paid – I mean, even a whore has to eat – so they decided to work something out with Mean Old Mr. Advertiser.

Maybe they could somehow leverage their size and sell the personal information of their 900 million users. Would that keep Mean Old Mr. Advertiser off their backs so they could resume their happy life of connecting the world and bringing nothing but joy?

Facebook was so kind to its users that they even added a “Like” button (because “Like” is much nicer than “Dislike” and Coca-Cola doesn’t want to see how many people “Dislike” Coke Zero).

It was so simple, users could either “Like” something or choose not to hit the “Like” button. It was up to the user.

That worked for awhile until the users of the world started to realize what was happening. Many users got angry and felt their privacy was being invaded.

About 15 people actually quit Facebook (while another 100 million signed up).

After a few months, things calmed in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park and the people on Facebook – to a lesser degree – felt fairly happy again.

But then, one day, Facebook decided that the users of the world needed to share every bit of information about their lives – from birth to even death – and put it all into a very conforming and dizzying glop of data called Timeline.

Mean Old Mr. Advertiser LOVED the idea of Timeline.

Finally, Facebook was thinking like him. Now they got the idea. Mean Old Mr. Advertiser could scour the lives of the people of the world and target them with goods and services that they may or may not enjoy.

And somehow, in just a brief eight years of existence – little Facebook grew and grew and grew and became worth $100 BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS! Oh, goodness, pardon me. (An IPO last year would been insane! What a missed opportunity!… but I digress.)

Well, from here the story gets a little tragic.

The beaten down people of the world and users of Facebook grew so exhausted from the daily overhauls of the site (which were necessary to maximize revenue) that they actually stopped spending time on Facebook – instead reading real books to their children and enjoying the outside world.

Comments started to appear on other websites (yes, there are actually other websites) saying they hate Facebook, are never going back and are quitting.

Poor little Facebook. They just wanted to HELP the world – not FUCK OVER the world.

How could a crappy redesign and a selling of their soul piss people off so much?

It’s just a website after all (one that is on its way to becoming WORTHLESS and must be STOPPED for the good of the world!… one more digression).

I mean, why do the people of the world care so much?

Well, we all know how the story ends.

Disgruntled engineers (and let’s assume an MBA or two) who helped create the chaos from the direction of Uncle Mark and Aunt Sheryl, began grumbling about their need to become millionaires and billionaires like so many of their friends.

The only way to stop them from leaving the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park – and going to, oh, say, the dangerous crack alleys of Mountain View and Cupertino to seek their fortune – was to take the company public.

By selling $5 or $10 billion dollars in stock to the ‘public’ (at a BULLSHIT valuation of $100 billion!) everyone could become rich and (yes) happy.

So at least the employees of Facebook will now be happy. The people of the world, who are seriously beginning to hate Facebook and are either leaving or staying away in droves, are less and less happy every day.

But Mean Old Mr. Facebook couldn’t care less – the users can go fuck themselves.

“Just put your freakin’ family photos in the template we have provided, “Like” the new Coke Zero, play the stupid Zynga games, pay for a movie rental, pay for a music subscription, and keep your stupid mouth shut. We’re not getting to a trillion dollar valuation from pictures of your goddamned baby!”

Mean Old Mr. Facebook is right. The User is wrong.

The moral of the story: Don’t screw your users. They’re the ones that built you up and they’re the ones that will bring you down.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

September 1, 2011December 12, 2011

Facebook Must Be Stopped

There is an evil temptation that far too many companies are having trouble resisting – the temptation to launch a new product or service on Facebook.

Every month, when the number of Facebook users seem to go up by 100 million or so – to a current tally of 750 million (let’s be serious, about half are most likely fictional or animals), the CEOs of most entertainment and technology companies get the crazy urge to somehow “tap into that customer base.”

This crazy urge must be resisted. Why? So Facebook is destroyed and the people of the world can go on to a much more interesting existence.

In my opinion, doing business with Facebook is the equivalent of doing business with China. Companies feel they need break into the Chinese market because there is FREAKING 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE THERE! “If we just get 0.0001% we’ll be successful. It’s a no brainer!”

And nearly every company goes there with their hat in their hand – giving every insane concession imaginable just to get in the door – and, eventually, come home with a giant footprint on their ass.

Reminder: The Chinese government can do whatever they want. The deal signed means nothing. If they don’t like your attitude or your product or just feel you’re getting a little “too friendly”, they’ll cut you off and send you home a miserable failure. And it doesn’t matter how many cartons of cigarettes or bottles of Slivovitz you give local officials. When it’s over, it’s over.

This is also true of Facebook.

I firmly believe Facebook could absolutely destroy Zynga (and numerous other companies) overnight. They have that power.

Granted, there is too much money at stake with Zynga’s upcoming IPO, so they probably won’t exert that power. But do you think the Zynga executives are going to do anything to antagonize Facebook… ever? Mark Zuckerberg knows the power he has over Mark Pincus.

That is another reason why Facebook must be stopped. Too many people are believing the hype and are afraid of being left behind.

Every day, Facebook dominates technology news. Press release after press release announces Facebook’s new initiatives and services. Their PR department sends out a press release, websites rewrite them slightly and, pow, you have technology news with a narrative controlled by… Facebook.

This week came a “leak” that they will be going into the Music business by blending streaming services such as Spotify, rdio and MOG into the Facebook user experience.

After all, why should anyone have to leave Facebook to listen to music? Why should anyone have to leave Facebook ever?

(I am working on a product that integrates Facebook into my morning shower. There must be a way to combine my Facebook news feed with the water from the shower head so my friend’s status updates directly enter my pores and absorb into my brain. But I digress….)

Spotify is a great service. They don’t need Facebook. People on Facebook don’t complain about having to toggle away from Facebook in order to go onto Spotify. It ain’t broke, don’t fix it!

Spotify and other media companies need to resist the temptation of the 750 million non-paying users (which includes millions of dogs and cats who don’t really care what songs they listen to).

And look at this growth chart (left). 7.3 billion users in 2015 vs. only 7.2 billion people alive on the planet!

Major media companies (including my parent company Manka Bros. Studios) need to realize that Facebook needs them more than they need Facebook. (Manka Bros. is actually working on a ‘Facebook Killer’ – Caligula – to launch later this year but I fear it will be more of the same.)

Content is the driver of everything in media. Put a great movie on a crappy 13 inch black & white TV and it’s still a great movie and people will watch it. Put a shitty movie on a 110″ inch HD television screen with Dolby SurroundSound, movie lighting and a cocktail, and it’s still a shitty movie that no one will watch.

Facebook needs to realize that the only reason they are popular is because we all have this urge to see what our friends from high school and college look like now. That’s it really. It’s not to watch “The Dark Knight” for 30 Facebook Credits or buy pigs on “Farmville” (millions do it, I know, and why not? – it’s right there in front of us and we’re freakin’ bored with our lives).

But I think it’s time to break away and see what else is out there in the world.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

July 26, 2011August 2, 2011

Debt Ceiling Impasse 1 — Social Media 0

American Idol, Ari Emanuel, Ben Silverman, Bruce Gowers, Cecile Frot-Coutaz, Freemantle Enterprises, Gaude Lydia Paez, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, John Pritchett, Kara DioGuardi, Ken Warwick, Kevin Reilly, Khan Manka, Manka Bros., Nigel Lythgoe, Nikki Finke, Paula Abdul, Peter Rice, Randy Jackson, Rupert Murdoch, Ryan Seacrest, Scott Grogin, Sharon Waxman, Simon Cowell leaving American Idol, Simon Fuller, Terry Semel, Haley Reinhart, James Durbin, Scott McCreery, Lauren Alaina, Jennifer Lopez, Ben Silverman, Jimmy Iovine, Accel Partners, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Chris Hughes, David Kirkpatrick, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, Jon Miller, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Sheryl Sandberg, Sumner Redstone, Toy Story 3, Mitch McConnell, President Barack Obama, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Michele Bachman, John Boehner, Sarah Palin, Jo Bonner, Martha Roby, Mike Rogers, Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Spencer Bachus, Terri Sewell, Don Young, Eni F.H. Faleomavaega, Paul Gosar, Trent Franks, Benjamin Quayle, Ed Pastor, David Schweikert, Jeff Flake, Raul M. Grijalva, Gabrielle Giffords, Eric Crawford, Tim Griffin, Steve Womack, Mike Ross, Mike Thompson, Wally Herger, Daniel Lungren, Tom McClintock, Doris Matsui, Lynn Woolsey, George Miller, Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Lee, John Garamendi, Jerry McNerney, Jackie Speier, Fortney Pete Stark, Anna Eshoo, Michael Honda, Zoe Lofgren, Sam Farr, Dennis Cardoza, Jeff Denham, Jim Costa, Devin Nunes, Kevin McCarthy, Lois Capps, Elton Gallegly, Howard McKeon, David Dreier, Brad Sherman, Howard Berman, Adam Schiff, Henry Waxman, Xavier Becerra, Judy Chu, Karen Bass, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Maxine Waters, Jane Harman, Laura Richardson, Grace Napolitano, Linda Sanchez, Edward Royce, Jerry Lewis, Gary Miller, Joe Baca, Ken Calvert, Mary Bono Mack, Dana Rohrabacher, Loretta Sanchez, John Campbell, Darrell Issa, Brian Bilbray, Bob Filner, Duncan Hunter, Susan Davis, Diana DeGette, Jared Polis, Scott Tipton, Cory Gardner, Doug Lamborn, Mike Coffman, Ed Perlmutter, John Larson, Joe Courtney, Rosa DeLauro, James Himes, Christopher Murphy, John Carney, Eleanor Holmes Norton, Jeff Miller, Steve Southerland, Corrine Brown, Ander Crenshaw, Richard Nugent, Cliff Stearns, John Mica, Daniel Webster, Gus Bilirakis, Bill Young, Kathy Castor, Dennis Ross, Vern Buchanan, Connie Mack, Bill Posey, Thomas Rooney, Frederica Wilson, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Theodore Deutch, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Mario Diaz-Balart, Allen West, Alcee Hastings, Sandy Adams, David Rivera, Jack Kingston, Sanford Bishop, Lynn Westmoreland, Henry Johson, John Lewis, Tom Price, Rob Woodall, Austin Scott, Tom Graves, Paul Broun, Phil Gringrey, John Barrow, David Scott, Madeleine Bordallo, Colleen Hanabusa, Mazie Hirono, Raul Labrador, Michael Simpson, Bobby Rush, Jesse Jackson, Daniel Lipinski, Luis Gutierrez, Mike Quigley, Peter Roskam, Danny Davis, Joe Walsh, Janice Schakowsky, Robert Dold, Adam Kinginger, Jerry Costello, Judy Biggert, Randy Hultgren, Timothy Johnson, Donald Manzullo, Robert Schilling, Aaron Schock, John Shimkus, Peter Visclosky, Joe Donnelly, Marlin Stutzman, Todd Rokita, Dan Burton, Mike Pence, Andre Carson, Larry Bucshon, Todd Young, Bruce Braley, David Loebsack, Leonard Boswell, Tom Latham, Steve King, Tim Huelskamp, Lynn Jenkins, Kevin Yoder, Mike Pompeo, Ed Whitfield, Brett Guthrie, John Yarmuth, Geoff Davis, Harold Rogers, Ben Chandler, Steve Scalise, Cedric Richmond, Jeffrey Landry, John Fleming, Rodney Alexander, Bill Cassidy, Charles Boustany, Chellie Pingree, Michael Michaud, Andy Harris, C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger, John Sarbanes, Donna Edwards, Steny Hoyer, Roscoe Bartlett, Elijah Cummings, Chris Van Hollen, John Olver, Richard Neal, James McGovern, Barney Frank, Niki Tsongas, John Tierney, Edward Markey, Michael Capuano, Stephen Lynch, William Keating, Dan Benishek, Bill Huizenga, Justin Amash, Dave Camp, Dale Kildee, Fred Upton, Tim Walberg, Mike Rogers, Gary Peters, Candice Miller, Thaddeus McCotter, Sander Levin, Hansen Clarke, John Conyers, John Dingell, Timothy Walz, John Kline, Erik Paulson, Betty McCollum, Keith Ellison, Collin Peterson, Chip Cracaack, Alan Nunnelee, Bennie Thompson, Gregg Harper, Steven Palazzo, Wm. Lacy Clay, Todd Akin, Russ Carnahan, Vicky Hartzler, Emanuel Cleaver, Sam Graves, Billy Long, Jo Ann Emerson, Blaine Luetkemeyer, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Fortenberry, Lee Terry, Adrian Smith, Shelley Berkley, Dean Heller, Joseph Heck, Frank Guinta, Charles Bass, Robert Andrews, Frank LoBiondo, Jon Runyan, Chrisopher Smith, Scott Garrett, Frank Pallone, Leonard Lance, Bill Pascrell, Steven Rothman, Donald Payne, Rodney Frelinghuysen, Rush Holt, Albio Sires, Martin Heinrich, Stevan Pearce, Ben Ray Lujan, Timothy H. Bishop, Steve Israel, Peter King, Carolyn McCarthy, Gary Ackerman, Gregory Meeks, Joseph Crowley, Jerrold Nadler, Anthony Weiner, Edolphus Towns, Yvette Clarke, Nydia Velazquez, Michael Grimm, Carolyn Maloney, Charles Rangel, Jose Serrano, Eliot Engel, Nita Lowey, Nan Hayworth, Christopher Gibson, Paul Tonko, Maurice Hinchey, William Owens, Richard Hannah, Ann Marie Buerkle, Brian Higgins, Louis McIntosh Slaughter, Tom Reed, G.K. Butterfield, Renee Ellmers, Walter Jones, David Price, Virginia Foxx, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell, Sue Wilkins Myrick, Patrick McHenry, Heath Shuler, Melvin Watt, Brad Miller, Rick Berg, Gergorio Kilili Camacho Sablan, Steve Chabot, Jean Schmidt, Michael Turner, Jim Jordan, Robert Latta, Bill Johnson, Steve Austria, John A. Boehner, Marcy Kaptur, Dennis Kucinich, Marcia Fudge, Patrick Tiberi, Betty Sutton, Steven LaTourette, Steve Stivers, James Renacci, Tim Ryan, Bob Gibbs, John Sullivan, Dan Boren, Frank Lucas, Tom Cole, James Lankford, David Wu, Greg Walden, Earl Blumenauer, Peter DeFazio, Kurt Schrader, Robert Brady, Chaka Fattah, Mike Kelly, Jason Altmire, Glenn Thompson, Jim Gerlach, Patrick Meehan, Michael Fitzpatrick, Bill Schuster, Tom Marino, Lou Barletta, Mark Critz, Allyson Schwarz, Michael Doyle, Charles Dent, Joseph Pitts, Tim Holden, Tim Murphy, Todd Russell Platts, Pedro Pierluisi, David Cicilline, James Langevin, Tim Scott, Joe Wilson, Jeff Duncan, Trey Gowdy, Mick Mulvaney, James Clyburn, Kristi Noem, David Roe, John Duncan, Charle Fleischmann, Scott DesJarlais, Jim Cooper, Diane Black, Marsha Blackburn, Stephen Lee Fincher, Steve Cohen, Louie Gohmert, Ted Poe, Sam Johnson, Ralph Hall, Jeb Hensarling, Joe Barton, John Abney Culberson, Kevin Brady, Al Green, Michael McCaul, Michael Conaway, Kay Granger, Mac Thornberry, Ron Paul, Ruben Hinojosa, Silvestre Reyes, Bill Flores, Sheila Jackson-Lee, Randy Neugebauer, Charles Gonzalez, Lamar Smith, Pete Olson, Francisco Canseco, Kenny Marchant, Lloyd Doggett, Michael Burgess, Blake Farenthold, Henry Cuellar, Gene Green, Eddie Bernice Johnson, John Carter, Pete Sessions, Rob Bishop, Jim Matteson, Jason Chaffetz, Peter Welch, Donna Christensen, Robert Wittman, Scott Rigell, Robert Scott, Randy Forbes, Robert Hurt, Bob Goodlatte, Eric Cantor, James Moran, Morgan Griffith, Frank Wolf, Gerald Connolly, Jay Inslee, Rick Larsen, Jaime Herrera Beutler, Doc Hastings, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Norman Dicks, Jim McDermott, David Reichert, Adam Smith, David McKinley, Shelly Moore Capito, Nick Rahall, Paul Ryan, Rammy Baldwin, Ron Kind, Gwen Moore, James Sensenbrenner, Thomas, Petri, Sean Duffy, Reid Ribble, Cynthia M. Lummis, Jeff Sessions, Richard Shelby, Mark Begich, Lisa Murkowski, Jon Kyl, John McCain, Mark Pryor, John Boozman, Dianne Feinstein, Barbara Boxer, Mark Udall, Michael Bennett, Joseph Lieberman, Richard Blumenthal, Christopher Coons, Edward Kaufman, Bill Nelson, Marco Rubio, Saxby Chambliss

For the past week, I’ve been instructed by a few Facebook friends to update my status by cutting and pasting a sentence or phrase that reflects their outrage of the current Debt Ceiling Impasse...

… or to email my Congress person…

… or to Tweet THIS if I want change…

… or to text someone that ‘I’m mad as Hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.’

And after all that updating, and reposting, and retweeting, and Google+ing, what’s the result?

– Debt ceiling impasse.

– Unstable global financial markets.

– Multiple stories about the inevitable downgrade from our AAA credit status and a coming stock market collapse.

Now, perhaps there are a few young congressional aides that are monitoring the ‘Facebook Status Update Situation’ and how many constituents actually posted the sentence of choice – but, really, is Congress listening?

Of course not.

Support or dissent from social media is like “American Idol” voting. So silly – but since it’s so easy to participate… why not?

It’s just another reason I feel Facebook is worthless. Superficial passion. “My day was awesome!” “My kids are the best students!” “Here’s the greatest recipe for Apple Pie!”

On “American Idol”, viewers are urged to phone or text (standard text message rates apply) as many times as they can for their favorite contestant. If you can’t get through – please keep trying!

Millions and millions of “votes” for Scott McCreary. Millions and millions for Lauren Alaina. Yet more millions and millions for Haley Reinhart (why, I’ll never know – don’t be hating me Haley fans – I just don’t think she’s talented).

And the winner is? Oh, I don’t know… we don’t care. The producers have agreed on… I mean, America has voted on… let’s say… Scotty!

You realize the votes aren’t counted, right?

If they actually did count the votes, the viewers would see those counts. Because that would add an interesting dynamic.

But producers can’t do that because then they wouldn’t be able to kick off the contestants they don’t like.

The same thing applies when social media takes on politics. When one person can re-post something a thousand times, it’s a superficial reading of what is really going on.

“Millions of emails have flooded the in-boxes of members of Congress.” Yeah, millions and millions of emails from three guys in Utah. And all went straight to the Congressional Spam folder.

And every political party is doing it – which creates nothing but muddle.

I am fairly certain the Tea Party people are flooding their status updates with “Don’t Raise The Debt Ceiling At All. Take Back America!”

And Republican Facebookers are pasting “Make Obama a one-term President.”

And the Democrats: “Don’t let the corporate jet owners win again!”

Is there anyone counting who is updating their Facebook status the most times? What do you think? And what do they win if they post the most? At least Scotty McCreary gets a record contract. Social Media activists get… ignored.

We all know where the Debt Ceiling Impasse is headed no matter how many Tweets are Tweeted – and so does President Obama. The U.S. will be kicking the can further down the road and a six month or one year debt ceiling extension that will accomplish very little and will be reluctantly signed on August 1st or 2nd.

Then Congress goes on vacation for the month of August.

The issue will be taken up again in early 2012 – two weeks or so before another possible default. And the Facebook status posting and Tweeting will begin another cycle… just in time for the new season of “American Idol”.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

May 12, 2011May 12, 2011

All The Facebook’s Men

As soon as I read The Daily Beast story about Facebook’s alleged smear (whisper) campaign against Google, I immediately thought of the scene in “All The President’s Men” with all the newspaper editors sitting around deciding which stories to run the next day.

When Watergate is brought up, there is stiff resistance from a couple of the editors.

This scene (replacing ‘Watergate’ with ‘Facebook’) could easily have played out at The Daily Beast with the change of a few words in the screenplay:

INT. THE DAILY BEAST – BUDGET MEETING

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Let me tell you what happened when I was having lunch today at Locanda Verde–

TINA BROWN: Correction – when you were drinking your lunch at the bar of Locanda Verde–

The room erupts in laughter.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: –this Facebook guy, a good one, a pro, came up and asked what is the “Google smear” compulsion with you guys and I said, well, we think it’s important and he said, if it’s so goddamn important, who the hell is Dan Lyons?

INNOVATION EDITOR: Fake Steve Jobs for one – but I digress. Ask him what he’s really saying – he means to take the story away from Dan Lyons and give it to his people at the Sexy Beast.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Well, I’ve got some pretty experienced people sitting around, wouldn’t you say so?

INNOVATION EDITOR: Absolutely, and that’s all they do, sit sit sit – every once in a while they reprint Michael Arrington, some reporting–

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Well, what if Dan Lyons get it wrong–

TINA BROWN: Then it’s Barry Diller’s ass, isn’t it? And we’ll all have to go work for a living.

The room clears, only a couple of Editors and Tina Brown stay behind:

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: I don’t think we should cover this story, period.

TINA BROWN: Go on.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: It’s not that we’re using unnamed sources that bothers me, or that everything we print Facebook denies.

TINA BROWN: What then?

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: I don’t believe the goddamn story, Tina, it doesn’t make sense.

TINA BROWN: It will, it just hasn’t bottomed out yet, give it time.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Look, why would Facebook do it? My God, Google is self-destructing before our eyes – just like MySpace did, Friendster, the bunch of ’em. Why would Burson-Marsteller send emails to bloggers urging them to write negative stories about Google, unless they wanted to get caught? Why would Burson go to Politico, The Washington Post and The Huffington Post, unless they wanted to get caught?

TINA BROWN: Are you saying Google started a whisper campaign against itself?

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Jill Kennedy at OnMedea thinks it’s possible – Google needs some positive press, corruption’s always a good one. Get off the story, Tina – or put some people on Google’s public relations team – fair is fair, even in our business.

—————————————-

Hey, we’re early enough in this conspiracy where all theories are in play.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

Click here to read the scene from the original script of “All The President’s Men”

January 13, 2011April 3, 2011

The Trouble With Groupon

I believe Groupon is headed for failure.

Even if they somehow survive, I fear they are doomed to be a company we all view with complete indifference.

I don’t write this lightly. I was amazed and sort of proud that they had the balls to turn down Google’s $6 billion offer.

Founders and senior management becoming fabulously wealthy excepted, there really is no upside to signing away your soul to a giant soulless corporation (take that Manka Bros.!) if you have a solid business or at least unique concept that absolutely cannot fail.

I was rooting for this upstart that had the guts to resist billions. I signed up and started to get the daily deals that were offered – “40% off a facial ($75 value!)”; “Pay $10 for $20 worth of hair products (not my brand)”, etc… these horrible “deals” kept coming and coming and I kept NOT BUYING. Now I believe they should have sold.

Groupon is not a terrible business – a little annoying, a notch above Spammer – but it’s basically a business that pushes all this crap on people that they don’t need (and from my experience, mostly stuff that I don’t even want). The brilliance they have is that they make you think you’re getting these amazing deals and you’d better buy soon or they’re gone forever. Consumers will wise up to this fairly quickly.

Sure, millions are buying (with Groupon keeping well over 50% of the proceeds) and it’s probably good for some of the small businesses that are participating (though I have heard of several disaster stories) – but it’s really just a sexier online version of Valpak – those blue envelopes of local coupons that we all get in the mail and we mostly ignore.

If Groupon really wanted to add value to my life, they would offer “50% off my Trader Joe’s bill”; “$5,000 off a 2011 Prius”; “$10 will get you $20 in cash”, etc. Things like that would be valuable to me. I would buy those. But Groupon can’t offer these things because Trader Joe’s and Toyota would be crazy to do it (and wouldn’t even dream of it) and the shit Groupon actually has to offer isn’t really… real. It’s just made up facts and figures to make you believe you’re getting a great deal.

Let’s say I own a Day Spa and offer $50 off a $300 massage. What makes it a $300 massage? I own the Spa, I set the price – there is no $50 value to be saved. I could go to another spa and get a $50 massage and save $200 more than I would have buying the Groupon. Groupon’s genius is convincing consumers that they are saving money on these great services when, really, the cheapest option is NOT TO BUY GROUPONS. That costs zero ($0) dollars.

And now, because the business model is so easy to replicate, I’m getting offers from Groupilicious, CouponYou, My Little Deuce Coupon, CouponDeville, Grouper With A Squeeze of Lemon, etc. and it will never stop because local businesses will always try to drum up sales by knocking 40% off a price that they set themselves. Buy it wholesale, mark up the price 100%, offer a Groupon for 40% off – still make 20% on the sale. It’s not difficult.

Right now Groupon is sexy. Even sexier after turning down Google. They are hiring an army of MBAs in their 20s, everybody dresses down – it’s a real startup mentality, it’s Chicago, it’s exciting. Hell, an IPO is coming!

But I look into the future, and all I see is Valpak. Ever been to a Valpak office? Not sexy. Not exciting. No roller skates, no ping pong – the only perks there are 20% off bagels when you buy one dozen.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

November 5, 2010December 9, 2011

Advertise On Facebook – Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls!

Does this mean an ad will cost $40 million dollars per spot?

So, I was just on Facebook – along with 800+ million of my friends (soon to be be 7.3 billion) – and couldn’t help notice the sidebar banner ad pitch to “Advertise On Facebook” (see left).

Now, I’ve never noticed an ad on Facebook. Not one. And I don’t think I’m alone.

So why would I pay anything to advertise on Facebook? Because you can’t afford NOT to have your product or brand in front of 800 MILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS. Right?

Because fear works when you’re pitching your platform to advertising agencies – “You need us more than we need you.” So it’s better to make an expensive ad buy on Facebook, even though no one will see your ad, than to be left behind.

Do they think we’re idiots? At least on television, even if the ad is being skipped in fast motion, you see the product. On Facebook, you don’t even notice the ad and, if you did, you wouldn’t care because you don’t want to see advertising when you’re on Facebook.

The only ad tactic that seems to work on Facebook is the one where hot young girls (old dudes pretending to be hot young girls) to “Friend” guys and then post non-stop about how they “LOVE THEIR NEW NISSAN SENTRA” and how much “The New Coke Zero ROX!”

Let I said before, Facebook, unless they start to charge user fees or do those horribly annoying ads that pop right in your face when you log in, is on the road to becoming worthless.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

October 21, 2010April 3, 2011

Juan Williams Had TWO JOBS!

Remember, whichever side you are on in this debate, Juan Williams had TWO JOBS during the worst economy since the Great Depression when so many people out there can’t even get ONE JOB.

I think it was good of NPR to fire Juan Williams if only for the simple fact that they can now hire an out of work Political Commentator who can get off the public dole.

Interesting that Fox News would reward a guy with a $2 million dollar contract who basically said that Muslims who are dressed as their religion requires(!!) make him nervous on an airplane.

Juan Williams perfectly fits the mold of the “Fox News Liberal”.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

October 8, 2010April 11, 2011

Digg – R.I.P.

Lesson #1: If Google offers you $200 million for a business that has no real focus or vision – TAKE IT.

Lesson #2: If the due diligence doesn’t back up a $200 million valuation and someone else offers you $80 million – TAKE IT.

Lesson #3: If you ignore Lessons #1 and #2 and decide to redesign your very popular (but unprofitable) website – MAKE SURE IT DOESN’T SUCK.

Lesson #4: If the redesign of the website sucks and the entire world complains – DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Lesson #5: If Lesson #4 is ignored and senior management continues to party like its 2006, YOUR COMPANY IS DYING.

Lesson #6: If your company is dying and you don’t have the cure, LET IT DIE WITH DIGNITY AND START OVER.

I’m afraid we’re at Lesson #6.

DIGG IS DEAD – R.I.P.

If only the Business Week cover from 2006 were true.

While many of the employees of Digg will find it difficult to start over, the founders and senior management team probably will not. Especially Kevin Rose, who is an early investor in Twitter and Zynga. So don’t cry for dude. Dude is fine.

Now I’ve Dugg many stories over the years – mostly an endless link-fest of Slide Shows and Superhero complaints – but it’s time to move on.

I suppose I’ll just have to “Like” instead of “Digg” (until Facebook becomes worthless – and they are on that path!). After that, I’ll probably have to “Shout Out” or “Yeah, Baby” or whatever other little button some company wants me to click whenever I like the new taste of Coke Zero.

“Digg” was cool and nobody can take 2006-2008 away from you guys. That was your time!

So long Kevin, Matt and Jay – who cares if you’re not Billionaires? Remember, Millionaires can still get chicks and buy drinks at any bar in the world.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

September 15, 2010April 3, 2011

Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015

OK, it’s September. The power players in the media world have completed their ‘summering’ and can now return to the passion of their lives – ridding the world of boredom and malaise by producing films, TV shows, games and websites. So… it’s great to be back.

The title of this blog is truly remarkable and, frankly, bullshit.

I received the chart to the left from a friend of mine at Facebook (which was pulled from a recent management presentation).

Takeaway: The number of Facebook users by 2015 will EXCEED THE EARTH’S POPULATION.

Sounds impossible I know. But I suppose nothing is impossible when it comes to Facebook. Because at Facebook it’s not “Impossible”, it’s “I’m Possible”.

A couple of months ago, I wrote a blog titled “Facebook Is Worthless”. I stand by the arguments in that blog (even though I received the wrath of many a Facebook insider who doesn’t want to see the value of their stock options go down) because, no matter what Facebook senior management tries to tell the press, no one seriously believes they are profitable. I believe the real numbers would freak too many people out who are praying for an IPO in the near future.

Just because everyone is on it doesn’t mean the future is bright. Just look at the AOL and Microsoft monopolies in the 1990s.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

July 1, 2010July 26, 2012

Facebook Is Worthless

MORE RECENT FACEBOOK POSTS:

Should We Believe Facebook’s Earnings?

Facebook and the Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale)

Facebook Must Be Stopped

Advertise On Facebook – Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls!

Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015

————

Original Post (Facebook Is Worthless):

Salacious headline? Yes. True? Also yes.

This is not a slam against the EXTREME popularity and unprecedented GROWTH story that is Facebook. This is a reality check of an unsustainable business model.

Much like a homeowner who can no longer afford an overinflated house purchased during the height of the bubble and decides to walk away, Facebook (with claims that it will hit ONE BILLION users in the not too distant future) has given it all away for free for far to long to change.

But change it must or Facebook Is Worthless.

Imagine the cable networks at their inception (especially premium channels like HBO) giving the channel to anyone for free at the beginning and then trying to convince customers to pay down the line. It’s a daunting task. One that Hulu is going through now – but they made the hard decision, and even though traffic and video streams will certainly fall, it will soon be profitable because it wasn’t too late to right the ship.

Imagine Disney/Pixar putting out Toy Story 3 for free in theaters and trying to make up their costs by throwing up billboards along the walls. What kind of idiot would do that? It would never be considered.

People love (and some actually depend on) Facebook, but it is too late to right the ship – and not just because no one cares or pays any attention to the banner ads that are thrown up against everyone’s status updates. It’s because people are starting to get really bored with it.

There are some late adapters that are still in the ecstasy phase of seeing their old high school friends as they look today (Facebook has ruined surprise factor of high school reunions forever, but I digress), but for the most part – at least in my case – most of my Facebook friends have stopped participating. They will pop on once a day or so just to see if anyone has posted any new drunken pictures or family photos of the new baby, but that’s about it.

My Facebook experience now is basically the same five people posting the same boring crap.

The Bored Office Worker who posts about “needing coffee” – and “can’t wait for Happy Hour!”

The Super Mom who claims every morning – “Went to 8 museums adn made banana bread all before 10am! My kids are awesome and sooooo funny!”

The Quoter who searches quotation websites looking for some daily affirmation that will get about 15 “Likes” and a few “I’m going to use that!” replies.

The Reviewer who writes stuff like “Smoke Monster? Shit Monster if you ask me!”

The Pissed Off Traveler with daily pearls like “10 hours on the tarmac!” and “Yet another delay, thank you American Airlines!”

And that’s about it. Every day, the same five people and I have over 300 Facebook friends (even though I only see about three friends actually in person in any given month).

The valuation on Facebook is so high that no one could possibly acquire it now (not even my employer, the insanely deep-pocketed Manka Bros. Studios) especially considering there is really no monetary growth story.

As it becomes more of a digital dumping ground, costs continue to rise. It has peaked as a global fascination. Check the value of Bebo, Myspace, Friendster, etc. and you’ll see the future of Facebook. Even though Mark Zuckerberg claims he’s different than all the others.

So here’s what Facebook needs to do – start charging every current or new user $0.99/month. Just ninety-nine cents per user per month to use all the features they currently use. New services may make it possible to bump that up to a premium fee down the line.

Millions will leave and start some “Facebook Should Be Free” movement, but other millions (like my five daily posters who feel they need to be heard) will definitely pay. Because $0.99 is nothing. It’s the purchase price of a pig on Farmville. There will still be advertising and cross-promotional opportunities and corporate sponsorships, etc. – multi revenue streams.

But the free culture has to change or Facebook is Worthless.

Deep down, at least to me, this seems to be the reason the IPO hasn’t happened. Zuckerberg says he’s not interested and will delay the IPO as long as possible. Yeah, because it’s a $15 billion company (so they say) with costs that exceed revenue – and no signs of that ever changing.

I wouldn’t be interested in an IPO either.

Someone enlighten me and correct my ignorance.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea