Philippe Dauman – OnMedea

May 26, 2017May 26, 2017

You Haven’t Got It

Manka Bros., Khan Manka, Manka Bros. Studios, The World's Largest Media Company, Newt Gingrich, Callista Gingrich, Jackie Battley, Marianne Ginther, Jeff Weiner, Ben Silverman, Rob Johnson, Sonny Perdue, Rick Tyler, Hermain Cain, Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Michele Bachman, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Joseph Smith, Thomas S. Monson, Elder Cook, Elder Nelson, Elder Holland, Elder Perry, Elder Bednar, George Romney, Ann Romney, Brigham Young, Sean Hannity, Bob Dole, Ann Coulter, James Grisham, Eric Stanger, Allen & Company retreat, Anne Mulcahy, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Bobby Kotick, Carol Bartz, Charlie Rose, Cory Booker, DumbDumb, Electus, Eric Schmidt, Erin Burnett, Gina Bianchini, Harvey Weinstein, Herb Allen, Herb Allen Sun Valley Conference, Herbert Allen, Jean-Bernard Levy, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jerry Yang, John Donahue, Ken Auletta, Khan Manka, Lachlan Murdoch, Lady Gaga, Leslie Moonves, Lionel Barber, Lloyd Grohl, Manka Bros., Marc Andreessen, Marissa Mayer, Mark Pincus, Mark Zuckerberg, Martin Sorrell, Mathias Dopfner, Mike Bloomberg, Niall FitzGerald, Peter Chernin, Phillippe Dauman, Reid Hoffman, Richard Parsons, Ricky Van Veen, Rob Wiesenthal, Robert L. Johnson, Ron Meyer, Rupert Murdoch, Sergey Brin, Sheryl Sandberg, Steve Jobs, Sun Valley Retreat, Sun Valley Retreat 2010, Terry Semel, Tom Freston, Tom Friedman, Ursula Burns, Vivi Nevo, Warren Buffett, World's Largest Media Company, Rupert Murdoch, Jose Maria Aznar, natalie Bancroft, Peter Barnes, Chase Carey, Kenneth Cowley, David DeVoe, Viet Dinh, Rod Eddington, Joel Klein, Andrew S.B. Knight, James Murdoch, Lachlan Murdoch, Thomas Perkins, Arthur Siskind, John Thornton, Stanley Shuman, Rebekah Brooks, Les Hinton, Teri Everett, jack Horner, Julie Henderson, Reed Nolte, Roger Ailes, Janet Nova, John Nallen, Beryl Cook, Michael Regan, Genie Gavenchak, Brian Lewis, Irena Briganti, Dan Berger, Rosabel Tao, Steven Rubenstein, Suzanne Halpin, Elisabeth Murdoch, Marvel, Thor, Donald Trump

I’m back. Thank God.

I didn’t blog most of the past year because I was writing a book that I got actual money for (just so you know, blogs don’t really pay) and because I just didn’t have an angle. Not sure I do now but I have to get back at it. It’s a discipline and I need to retrain those muscles.

So… I’m back.

But I’m back in a time when the American media is stuck. Absolutely stuck in the mud with no mule or Ford F-150 to pull us out.

To paraphrase the great film “All The President’s Men” – We haven’t got it.

Just not enough to bring President Trump down.

Don’t get me wrong – of course there is overwhelming evidence to bring down President Trump. Just not enough that sixty percent of Americas will get behind.

We are living in a country that elected a President ONLY because he said he would keep Mexicans out. REPEAT – ONLY BECAUSE HE WOULD KEEP MEXICANS OUT.

It wasn’t about jobs. It was about tax cuts. It wasn’t about NATO or the war on terror.

It was because he said he would build a wall to keep people out of America.

Even the Pope knows this is the only reason he is President. Look at that face.

Many of these same Americans that voted for him will lose their health insurance, will not get any tax break, will not get jobs… they will just get the Mexicans out. And that STILL seems to be okay with them.

We are living in a country that tolerated their ancestors when they came in the country – but have no tolerance for anything else.

But the journalists still need to be smarter.

We all want to have THE SCOOP – THE SMOKING GUN that finally brings him down – but we have to be careful.

Our challenge is – we have to be completely honest. There is no wiggle room for speculation. No wiggle room for unnamed sources.

The Trump White House is using every vague reference as leverage.

But it won’t work forever.

We must only be honest and, based on the absolute truthful facts, this President will be brought to his knees and he will resign.

Not impeached because there are no real “give me liberty or give me death” Americans on the Republican side – but he will be forced to resign because… there will be no other choice.

But right now, in a world where a candidate for congress can assault a reporter and still win, when most in the media are so horrified by this President’s lack of ability or respect for the job and only wants to get one of these overwhelmingly impeachable charges to stick… we haven’t got it.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 5, 2016September 6, 2024

If CES Were Held In Fresno, No One Would Go

I think Tech reporters really only care about CES because it is in Las Vegas.

If the show were held in a place like Fresno or Akron does anyone really believe reporters would trek from all over the world to see LG’s new roll-up screen?

Of course not.

Here’s the way it plays out every year in Vegas:

Nearly every major online publication (and print for that matter) send at least one reporter (and some send teams) to Las Vegas for the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) – and no one, except those reporters, actually cares what comes out of the show.

These writers start off strong with elaborate write-ups before they get to Las Vegas of “What To Expect From CES This Year!” or “The 10 Must-Sees @CES!”

– then they go to Vegas

– they do a decent write up of Day 1 and feign interest in a couple of redundant panels that reveal little

– then they party hard the first night because they have been so focused on the build up of CES that they just want to unwind

– and then they write a lackluster Day 2 report (because they are hungover)

– party some more

– and then sort of disappear until it’s time to drag themselves home.

Because it’s not about “new technology” (the gadgets are really just variations on themes from the past 10 years), it’s about “Vegas” and being able to get drunk on the company dime.

The same goes for the legions of companies that attempt to break new products and show off their brilliant innovations.

It’s a snow job – everyone is reprinting the same press release and then heading to dinners and cocktail parties to talk about the press release.

99.99% of the world’s population really don’t care to read about a $150,000 8K television, or a self-driving car or wearable tech – they might buy it once it hits the market if the products are good – but to read about it from hundreds of tech reporters and bloggers? Not so much.

But 99.99% do care about Vegas. Just write about your debauchery (like this CEO from last year – CES After Dark) and forget the gadgets.

No one cares.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

May 6, 2014July 1, 2014

The Twilight Of The Katzenberg

Manka Bros., Khan Manka, Herb Allen's Sun Valley Conference 2013, Sun Valley Lodge, Bin Tran, Vin Tran, Lee S Ainslie III, Yousef Al Otaiba, Hans-Holger Albrecht, Paul G Allen, James Anderson, Marc Andreessen, Michael Angelakis, Tim Armstrong, Nikesh Arora, Neil M Ashe, Emilio Azcarraga, Manvinder S Banga, Lionel Barber, Craig R Barrett, Willow Bay, Andreas Bechtolsheim, Marc Benioff, Jeffrey Berg, James Berkus, Michael S Berman, Mark Bertolini, Gary Bettman, Jeff Bewkes, Jeffrey P Bezos, Aneel Bhusri, The Right Honorable Tony Blair, Gregory R Blatt, Anthony H Bloom, Michael R Bloomberg, Steven R Boal, Scott A Bommer, Cory A Booker, Jeffrey H Boyd, Sergey Brin, Glenn Britt, Tom Brokaw, Michael J Brown, Howard G Buffett, Susie Buffett, Warren Buffett, John Burbank, Stephen Burke, Erin Burnett, Ursula Burns, John E Bush, Jeanie Buss, John A Canning Jr., Chase Carey, Wences Casares, Mark Casey, Kenneth Chenault, Peter Chernin, Brian Chesky, Richard Chilton, Chris Christie, Lewis Cime, Adriana Cisneros, Gustavo Cisneros, Vittorio Colao, Timothy Collins, Patrick Collison, Timothy Cook, Anderson Cooper, David Corkins, Delos Cosgrove, Dick Costolo, Cristian Croitoru, Henry Crumpton, Jose Luis Cutrale, Will Danoff, Philippe Dauman, Christopher Davis, Alfonso de Angoitia, John DeGioia, Diego Della Valle, Brian Demain, Andre Desmarais, David DeVoe, Feroz Dewan, William DeWitt, Barry Diller, Daniel Doctoroff, Jonathan Dolgen, John Donahoe, Jack Dorsey, Michael Duke, Mathias Dopfner, David Ebersman, Wesley Edens, Marvin Edwards, Eric Eisner, Michael Eisner, John Elkann, Thomas Evans, Randel Falco, Jose Antonio Fernandez, Michael Ferror, Niall W. A. FitzGerald, Thomas Friedman, Michael Fries, Tommy Frist, Daniel Fulton, Michael Fux, Mala Gaonkar, Whitfield Gardner, William Gates, Melinda Gates, Julius Genachowski, Daniel Gilbert, Thomas Giovine, David Goldberg, Roger Goodell, Bing Gordon, Donald Graham, Brian Grazer, Brad Grey, John Griffin, Andreas Halvorsen, Reed Hastings, General Michael Hayden USAF, James Heavener, John Hendricks, John Henry, John Heyman, Kazuo Hirai, John Hock, Reid Hoffman, Won Pyo Hong, Lisa Hook, Ben Horowitz, Drew Houston, Robert Iger, David Ignatius, Martin Indyk, Phillip Jackson, Eli Jacobs, Paul Jacobs, Robert Johnson, Salar Kamanger, Peter Karmanos, Alexander Karp, Michael Karsch, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Michael Keating, Brian Kelly, Muhtar Kent, Joseph Robert Kerrey, Dara Khosrowshahi, Seth Klaman, Joel Klein, Peter Klein, Philip H Knight, Victor Koo, Robert Kotick, Robert Kraft, Henry Kravis, Ynon Kreiz, Blake Krikorian, Ananda Krishnan, Stan Kroenke, Daniel Lamarre, Michael Larson, Martin Lau, Michael Leavitt, Jay Lee, Eric Lefkofsky, Theordore Leonsis, Max Levchin, David Levin, Phil Libin, Martin Lipton, Bryan Lourd, Kenneth W Lowe, Michael Lowenstein, Dan Lufkin, Dennis P LYnch, Michael Lynton, Maurice Levy, John Malone, Robert Marcus, Morris Mark, Donald Mattrick, Kathleen A McCarragher, General Stanley A McChrystal, Andrew McKenna, General Montgomery C Meigs, Lorenzo Mendoza, Ron Meyer, Roberto Mignone, Hiroshi Mikitani, Bill Miller, Kenneth Miranda, Thomas Monahan, Leslie Moonves, Luis Alberto Moreno, Dan Moskovitz, Craig Mundle, James Murdoch, Rupert Mudoch, Lachlan Murdoch, Nathan Myhrvold, Michael Neidorff, Jonathan M Nelson, Vivi Nevo, Sam Nunn, Michael E O'Hanlon, Daniel J O'Keefe, Don O'Neal, Ronald L Olson, Evan Osnos, CL Butch Otter, Michael Ovitz, Larry Page, Stephen G Pagliuca, Saul Pannell, Mark Papa, William Pappendick, MIchael Pausic, Minxin Pei, Francois-Henry Pinault, Mark Pincus, Laurene Powell, Lawrence F Probst, Rebecca Quick, Thomas Rabe, Jay Rasulo, Jerry Reinsdorf, Danny Rimer, Richard Riordan, Ambassador Charles H Rivkin, Brian Roberts, James Robinson IIi, James Robinson IV, Fernando Rodes Vila, Brian Rogers, Congressman Mike Rogers, Charlie Rose, Daniel Rose, Wilbur L Ross, Haim Saban, Karim Sadjadpour, Sheryl Sandberg, Ricky Sandler, Ted Sarandos, Fayez Sarofim, Nassef Sawiris, Eric Schmidt, John Schneider, Christopher Schroeder, John Scully, Allan Selig, Nicole Seligman, Eric Semler, William Siegel, Herbert Siegel, Ben Silbermann, Christopher Silbermann, Louis Simpson, Eduardo Sirotsky Melzer, Andrew Sorkin, Sir Martin Sorrell, Thomas Staggs, Cristina Stenbeck, David Stern, Michael Stone, Sir Howard Stringer, Robert Swan, Peter Thiel, Mark Thompson, Sebastian Thrun, Thomas Tull, Peter Ueberroth, Joseph Vacanti, Jeffrey Van Harte, Owen Van Natta, Martin Varsavsky, Leftie Vaughn, Michelangelo Volpi, Alexandre Von Furstenberg, Dian von Furstenberg, Casey Wasserman, David Weinberg, Judd Weinberg, Jeff Weiner, Harvey Weinstein, Wallace R Weitz, Robert Werbel, Michael White, Meg Whitman, Jim Wiatt, James Williams, Fred Wilpon, Jeffrey Wilpon, Fred Wilson, David J Winters, Nicholas Woodman, Major General Amos Yadlin, Jerry Yang, Jed York, David Zaslav, Dirk E Ziff, Gianfranco Zoppas, Mark Zuckerberg

It’s going to be a long summer for Jeffrey Katzenberg and DreamWorks Animation. It may just be the last summer those two names are associated with each other.

Sure, they’ve got “How To Train Your Dragon 2” coming out. And, sure, it’ll do $500 million worldwide and make a decent profit.

But not enough to convince anyone that DWA isn’t a dead-company-walking.

By early next year, something will have to happen – maybe a sale, maybe a shutdown – but business as usual is not an option.

This failure seemed to happen in slow motion – nearly 10 years with a terrible, unsustainable business model.

I seriously doubt the Company Mission was this: “We’re going to produce two animated movies a year – and one of them will fail. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat.”

In baseball, getting a hit fifty percent of the time would be superhuman.

In Hollywood, fifty percent sucks.

When your job is to produce animated feature films, and over half of your movies bomb, there is something wrong with you. It means, you are incompetent and, deep down, you really don’t know what you’re doing.

Big Hollywood animated feature films is the ultimate fish-in-a-barrel/low-hanging-fruit type entertainment. Kids of a certain age will see almost anything. And parents need these diversions to pass the time on a hot summer afternoon or a miserable cold winter day.

But I suppose over the half time, parents would rather be miserable than go see a DreamWorks Animation film.

I’m not saying everything has to be “Frozen” – but nothing should ever be “Turbo” or “Mr. Peabody & Sherman.”

From the beginning, I never understood the Animation unit IPO.

If the reason was just to get enough cash to pay-off Paul Allen at the expense of giving up your dream of building a giant entertainment conglomerate on par with the other majors, then that was truly short-sighted and weak.

Taking the whole company public was really the only option – a piece of it was just too small. I’m sure there was a reason – but it was mistake nonetheless.

Seriously, you went from producing content like this:

To content like this:

AwesomenessTV and OTT, in general, is not going to be enough to save the company – though it will be a nice asset for someone to pick up on the cheap – after the whole OTT bubble bursts (any moment now).

So, I’m sorry, Jeffrey, it’s time for you to just enjoy your money and your philanthropic work (cocktail parties, clambakes at Geffen’s house, etc.). You do many great things for the world – producing movies isn’t one of those things.

Sorry.

It is very possible that Khan Manka, Jr. – as he wrote himself – is the Last Hollywood Mogul.

Good luck to you.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 6, 2014January 22, 2014

Only Tech Reporters Care About CES

Ari Emanuel, Ben Silverman, Bob's Big Boy Burbank, Electus, Fred Willard, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, kara swisher, Khan Manka, Les Moonves, Manka Bros., Melinda the first lady of magic, nikki finke, Nokia Theater, OnMedea, Philippe Dauman, Rupert Murdoch, sharon waxman, Sherry Lansing, Sumner Redstone, Taylor Swift, Terry Semel, The black Eyed Peas, thewrap.com, Viacom's Holiday party, Accel Partners, Alan Eustace, Allen Blue, Ann Mather, Arvind Rajan, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Bret Taylor, Chamath Palihapitiya, Chris Hughes, Christopher Cox, Dan Rose, David Drummond, David Ebersman, David Fischer, David Henke, David Kirkpatrick, David Sze, Deep Nishar, Dustin Moskovitz, Eduardo Saverin, Ellen Levy, Elliot Schrage, Emilie Choi, Eric Schmidt, Erika Rottenberg, Gerald Levin, Greylock Partners, HBO, Jean-Luc Vaillant, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jill Kennedy, Jim Breyer, Joanna Shields, John Doerr, John Hennessy, Jon Miller, Jonathan Heiliger, Jonathan Rosenberg, Justin Aselage, Katrina Hau, Kevin Eyres, Khan Manka, Li Ka-shing, Lori Goler, Manka Bros., Marc Andreessen, Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, Mike Gamson, Mike Murphy, Mike Schroepfer, MySpace, Nicolas Carlson, Nikesh Arora, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Patrick Crane, Patrick Pichette, Paul Buchheit, Paul Madera, Paul Otellini, Peter Thiel, Ram Shriram, Reid Hoffman, Robby Kwok, Rupert Murdoch, Sergey Brin, Sheryl Sandberg, Shirley Tilghman, Shona Brown, Steve Cadigan, Steve Patrizi, Steve Sordello, Sumner Redstone, Ted Ullyot, Tony DiSanto, Toy Story 3, CES

Nearly every major online publication (and print for that matter) are sending at least one reporter to Las Vegas for the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) – and no one, except those reporters, actually cares what comes out of the show.

It’s all the same – year after year.

Reporters write up an elaborate post about “What to expect from CES this year!” –

– then they go to Vegas

– they do a decent write up of Day 1

– then they party hard the first night because they have been so focused on the build up of CES that they just want to unwind

– and then they write a lackluster Day 2 report (because they are hungover)

– party some more

– and then sort of disappear until it’s time to drag themselves home.

Believe me, if CES were held in Fresno, even the Tech reporters wouldn’t show up.

Because it’s not about “new technology” (the gadgets are really just variations on themes from the past 10 years), it’s about “Vegas” and being able to get drunk on the company dime.

The same goes for the legions of companies that attempt to break new products and show off their brilliant innovations.

It’s a snow job – everyone is reprinting the same press release and then heading to dinners and cocktail parties to talk about the press release.

99.99% of the world’s population really don’t care to read about a $150,000 4K television, or a self-driving car or wearable tech – they might buy it once it hits the market if the products are good – but to read about it from hundreds of tech reporters and bloggers? Not so much.

But 99.99% do care about Vegas. So just write about your debauchery (like this CEO from last year – CES After Dark) and forget the gadgets.

No one cares.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

April 9, 2013April 9, 2013

Aereo Will Fail

Make no mistake – there is no chance Aereo will survive longer than two or three years. That’s a best-case scenario.

Broadcast Networks are dying (it’s true) and will be dead in their current form within five years.

In five years, who is going to pay $8 a month for nothing?

Where are all those little antennas going to go once Broadcast Networks cease to exist?

What sort of business launches with this sort of insane hype that, at most, will only exist for five years?

A Barry Diller company, of course.

The only useful purpose Aereo has is that it will play a part in hastening the inevitable demise of Broadcast Networks.

That’s something, I guess.

I wrote a couple of years ago that Broadcast Networks were in denial (BROADCAST NETWORKS: ON DEATH AND DYING – April 1, 2011). That the executives were longing for the old days of The Big Five.

Now they’re just trying to survive at any cost.

New shows aren’t working. The upfronts next month will be terrible (regardless of what the networks will actually say in their trumped up press releases and over-the-top presentations).

But things aren’t completely dire.

Chase Carey has the right idea but he shouldn’t say that he’ll make FOX a cable channel as a threat to Aereo. He should make FOX a cable channel because it would be a good business decision. It’s really the ONLY business decision.

It is time for Broadcast Networks to accept that the world has changed. “The Mary Tyler Moore Show” is no longer the number one show. And new shows like “How To Live With Your Parents (For The Rest Of Your Life)” will not save you now.

Basic cable and becoming just another button on the infinite media grid of the future is the only chance ABC, CBS, MBS, NBC and FOX have to survive.

Love him or hate him (most hate him), Barry Diller has, once again, disrupted an industry in desperate need of change.

If he wasn’t so gooey I would be cheering him on.

For $20 million dollars, he is forcing a $50 billion industry to join the 21st century. Now that’s getting a bang for your buck.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Who knew Barry Diller enjoyed fishing so much? Here’s a great story of a recent fishing trip.

February 27, 2013February 27, 2013

Stuck Between Old and New Media

Hollywood is stuck.

New York is stuck.

Silicon Valley is stuck.

No one can really do anything too exciting because old media is still hanging around – refusing to give up the crown.

Don’t get me wrong – OLD MEDIA IS DYING – but they’re not dead yet.

DVDs are dying – but they’re not dead yet.

We can assume that digital downloads and streaming will be the format of choice in the future – but we don’t know how it will all be quantified. Will people buy digital movies and store them in the cloud using UltraViolet and iTunes or just rent from Redbox and subscribe to Netflix?

Broadcast Networks ARE dying – but they’re not dead yet.

Will YouTube become a go to destination for entertainment on par with broadcast and cable channels? OK, that’s easy – YES – and soon.

Will Netflix realize its dream and become another HBO? Probably not. Just because “House of Cards” sort of works doesn’t mean the next five or ten shows will.

Printed books are dying – but they’re not dead yet. Will eBooks be enough to sustain an entire industry? (And Gay Moroccan Poetry definitely isn’t going to turn things around.)

Magazines are dying – YEP, they’re pretty much dead. And the online future of magazines isn’t bright at all.

Same with printed newspapers. And newspapers online will not be able to cover the costs at their current levels – so look for further contraction of that industry.

Theatrical Distribution of movies and events is most likely here to stay when many thought a couple of years ago that the format would die (though 3D WILL die).

Even Facebook and LinkedIn feel like old school media companies that are wearing out their welcome. They’ll eventually go out of business. In the meantime, they’ll just stick around and be as boring as ever.

How crazy is it that the Music Industry almost seems relatively healthy (after a decade of torture and pain)? As horrible as was, at least they’ve made the transition to digital – and now, though smaller, they’re actually growing again. But for how long? Nobody knows.

It’s limbo.

We can’t see what the future will be because the past won’t go away.

Too many unanswered questions.

With everything so completely up in the air, it’s a terrible time to be in the media business.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

February 8, 2013February 12, 2013

NBC Is Saved!

OK – I know NBC has been on a really bad run lately – but things are definitely looking up!

I just received an email alert from the Hollywood Reporter announcing that Christina Ricci has agreed to star in…

wait for it…

GIRLFRIEND IN A COMA

After 87 years, NBC finally has a show to be proud of.

Bob Greenblatt has proven his brilliance and I can’t to hear what’s next:

Could it be – “My Boyfriend’s Got A Nail In His Head”?

“Dad’s Bleeding From The Ass… Again”

“What’s That Thing On Molly’s Face?”

The possibilities are endless.

All joking aside… Here’s who is really in a coma:

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

December 18, 2012December 23, 2012

2013: Endgame For Moguls

Old Hollywood just got another year older and closer to death.

In fact, it’s getting harder and harder for Old Hollywood to get out of bed in the morning.

Food doesn’t taste as good. Hangovers are a daily occurrence.

In short, Old Hollywood is not well.

And with each passing year, as movie studios and broadcast networks become increasingly irrelevant, my thoughts are about real estate.

What is going to happen to all those soundstages and sprawling campuses scattered around Los Angeles and the world when no one needs them anymore?

Soundstages built in the early 20th century by visionaries from Poland, Hungary, New York and Kansas City.

Clearly they won’t be used as much in the future as production costs for high quality content continue to drop and new visionary kids from everywhere else in the world are able to compete head-to-head with the best Hollywood writers and directors.

Perhaps they will be torn down and apartments built. But apartments in those areas are for young writers and actors who move to L.A. to chase that Hollywood dream.

They don’t have to move here anymore.

Perhaps one studio will be turned into a museum of what Hollywood used to look like.

It’s a lot of land, man, and the shopping mall business isn’t so good these days either.

It’s going to be a real problem one day.

As I said earlier this year, YouTube’s Original Content Strategy Is Working and that should put every remaining media mogul on high alert.

The 1975 when millions of families crowded the television on a SATURDAY NIGHT to watch one of the three networks is over.

Now, in all likelihood, a family of five is watching or doing five different things on a Saturday night (and the rest of the week for that matter).

And this has been true for a few years.

In 2013, another profound and symbolic pillar will crumble in the epic story of the Decline and Fall of the Hollywood Empire.

The Mogul.

2013 will see most of the remaining media moguls pathetically fade away from relevance with little fanfare. And that’s sad.

WHO IS LEAVING?

1. Sumner Redstone – Many would say he has already left (despite his attempt to look youthful with that shocking sprayed on orange hair). Sumner has desperately clung to power just as he clung to the side of the hotel ledge years ago to survive a fire. Sumner will be the first to leave in 2013 either by death or senility (though many would argue he has been dead and senile for the past 25 years).

2. Rupert Murdoch – Enough with this guy and his phone tapping and continued interest in buying newspapers. He’s done. There is an outside chance the family empire could continue if Rupert appointed his daughter Elisabeth to the top job (I would buy the stock if that happened). But his continue insistence on giving his idiot sons top jobs will, no doubt, destroy all that he spent his entire life building.

3. Barry Diller – Barry Diller is just tired of it all. Does anyone really think he is excited about owning Ben Silverman’s ridiculous company or CollegeHumor or The Daily Beast or Zwinky or Sports Pickle? Sail away, Barry. The media world no longer needs you. You had a good run. Now go get drunk.

4. Jeffrey Katzenberg – The last mogul standing of DreamWorks SKG (one of the last valiant attempts made to build a true media empire like the old days), Katzenberg will sell DreamWorks Animation for a few billion less than he would have hoped and leave the Hollywood scene. He will go on to become equally annoying in the Art Collection scene.

CLINGING TO POWER

1. The Weinstein Brothers (Harvey and Bob) – Despite several high profile movies (Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Django Unchained) that will probably win quite a few awards this season, the Weinsteins are working with a business model from 1985. Attempted diversification into TV, publishing and interactive nearly cost them everything a few years ago. What they know is how to buy, market and get Awards for small to medium sized movies. And we know where that business is headed.

2. Ryan Kavanaugh – Calling him a mogul is generous (to say the least). Attempted mogul more like it. For some reason people keep giving him money. Hopefully, that stops soon and he is forced to land his helicopter not in Beverly Hills but somewhere out in Palmdale where he can live out his existence with a few other characters from “Day of the Locust.”

WHO IS STAYING?

Khan Manka, Jr. – Despite horrible performances year-over-year in both film and television (and publishing and music, etc.), Khan Manka, Jr. remains firmly at the top of the world’s largest media company. Even though he publicly states how much he hates the job and would rather be at his house in the Seychelles, he continues to stay year-after-year and I don’t see that changing anytime in the near or far future.

2. Thomas Tull (Legendary) – Even though Legendary is more of a high-end financing and production outfit than a media empire, Tull is eyeing much larger things and has the money to do it. How far he actually takes the media empire concept is the question. Is Legendary a new DreamWorks or actually something that will be successful?

3. Hed family of Rovio (Angry Birds) is the closest thing we have these days to a new generation media mogul (and I wish Raj, Mikael and Niklas Hed nothing but the best. DON’T SELL – BUILD!). Like Walt Disney and George Lucas before them, the Heds have a real chance to build an empire from a single group of characters. Their passion and ambition is infectious and they see enormous potential while others laugh in their face. The perfect scenario for global conquest.

—————–

So, 2013, endgame for moguls.

The big ones will fall.

Some smaller ones may rise (on a lower scale).

It will never be the same.

Where is Ted Turner when you really need him?

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – John Malone and Brian Roberts may be considered moguls in today’s terms. I just find them too boring to write about.

April 1, 2011July 19, 2012

Broadcast Networks – On Death And Dying

For Broadcast Networks, the end is coming and it’s time for them to Accept their fate. (The 2012 Emmy Nominations only strengthen this point.)

This isn’t to say ABC, CBS, FOX, MBS, NBC, Univision and The CW (and similar Broadcast Networks around the world) are going away. They’ll just have to transform into one of the million other “Channels” out there – high profile Channels with good programming and production values – but still just another button on the Great Media Grid like ESPN, TNT, USA, Oxygen, Justin.tv (indeed), YouTube, etc.

According to a model developed by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in her 1969 book “On Death and Dying”, there are Five Stages of Grief.

Over the past 20 years or so, Broadcast Networks have bounced around the First Four Stages in an effort to fight off the inevitable:

1. Denial: Broadcast Networks will always be the only place to reach a large audience. We don’t see that ever going away. No one is going to watch the shit they make on Cable. It’s nothing but George Foreman Grill infomercials and drunken Jackass teenagers riding their bikes into traffic.

2. Anger: It’s just not right! They make such crap on Basic Cable (again – see Emmy Nominations). How are they pulling in more advertising than us?! I don’t give a shit about the ratings of “Jersey Shore”, the content on Broadcast Networks is far superior and always will be. Goddamnit! And don’t you dare mention that fucking “Mad Men” to me again! And Hell will freeze over before we ever produce a series for that inferior platform. There’s no syndication value. It’s bullshit!

3. Bargaining: The playing field is not level. It’s not fair. We really need you cable and satellite operators to pay us to retransmit our signal. Don’t forget – we’re the Broadcast Networks. If you give us two revenue streams, we’ll give you really great programming with high ratings and advertising rates that are healthy for everyone. Don’t you realize there is only one place to reach a large audience?

4. Depression: Remember when Saturday night was the greatest night on television – when three networks (and three network Presidents) controlled every household? Everyone had incredible line-ups. It will never be that good again. Thursday night used to be a place where advertisers needed us to launch a new movie or car or department store sales. Those were the days. Oh well, at least we still have our beach houses and court side basketball seats.

5. Acceptance: It’s going to be okay. It’s not so bad to be equated with TBS. I mean, they have Conan O’Brien now. They are sort of like a Broadcast Network. And we’re still bigger than most of the other Channels. And we’ll get the Super Bowl back one day (after ESPN and The Food Network have their turns). It’s all good.

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The death of Broadcast Networks may not happen in the next five years but it IS going to happen and the sooner we put them out of their misery and end that painful decline, the faster the industry can heal and begin to grow again.

And even though every year in May, the upfronts always seem to break new records (and the Broadcasters will shout that fact from the rooftops in the Trades), make no mistake, nothing can be done to save Broadcast Networks.

It’s an old concept in a new world.

For old school TV executives and their Madison Avenue chronies who are accustomed to lavish Upfront Presentations at Carnegie Hall, Madison Square Garden and the International Space Station, it’s time to just let it go. The Days of Wine and Roses and Fine Dining and Muffin Baskets are over.

Broadcast Network defenders (yes, Les Moonves, this means you) are finding fewer and fewer allies in their argument. Face the facts, ESPN and Google are more valuable than CBS. It may not seem fair – but there are many new Sheriffs in town. Remember, if you’re in a business where single-digit drops in viewers is the New Growth, your business sucks.

So what are the Broadcast Networks supposed to do next? Very simple. Just accept equal footing (two revenue streams – subscription and advertising – enough with this silly Retrans business that no one can understand) and continue to run your business as just another Channel on the Grid.

In the future (and it’s coming), with a channel lineup grid that will be sorted Alphabetically and not by “importance” or “size” (and will include TV channels, websites and whatever else comes up) programming is, as it always has been, King .

And may the best programmer win.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

November 15, 2010August 10, 2011

TBS – Go Get Your Shinebox

What is it going to take for TBS (or any other Basic Cable channel) to get a little respect?

I watched the premiere week of Conan and thought it was fine and exactly what I expected (which is a slight disappointment, right?). (Also, why was it on at 10pm on DirecTV when every advertisement in the world says 11pm?… but I digress.)

The one thing that did stand out was the constant bashing of TBS and Basic Cable in general (I know it is a joke, I get it – I also got it in 1985 when the Basic Cable jokes started). But times have changed.

I was a proponent of Conan leaving NBC and for Jeff Zucker to be fired for many MANY reasons (including the handling of the Jay/Conan affair and for having anything to do with Ben Silverman. Please, someone wash everything Ben touched, it’s filthy!).

But, I must say, I’m disappointed with the way Conan has handled the transition to TBS. It was a very difficult decision, I’m sure, but why bash your new home?

Why is Basic Cable still struggling for any sort of respect?

It’s all very reminiscent of the scene from “Goodfellas” with Billy Batts (Frank Vincent) and Tommy DeVito (Joe Pesci) in the bar. Imagine Billy Batts is the “Broadcast Networks” and Tommy DeVito is “Basic Cable”:

Basic Cable: No more shines, Broadcast Networks.

Broadcast Networks: What?

Basic Cable: I said, no more shines. Maybe you didn’t hear about it, you’ve been away a long time. I don’t shine shoes anymore.

Broadcast Networks: Relax, will ya? Ya flip out, what’s got into you? I’m breaking your balls a little bit, that’s all. I’m only kidding with ya…

Basic Cable: Sometimes you don’t sound like you’re kidding, you know, there’s a lotta people around…

Broadcast Networks: I’m only kidding with you. I’m breaking your balls, and you’re getting fucking fresh. I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to offend you.

Basic Cable: I’m sorry, too. It’s okay. No problem.

Broadcast Networks: Now go home and get your fuckin’ shinebox!

Basic Cable: Mother fuckin’ mutt! You fucking piece of shit!

If you remember the movie, Tommy then kicked and stabbed Billy about a thousand times, threw him in the trunk of his car and buried him in some disgusting pit. I’m not saying Basic Cable will completely bury the Broadcast Networks – but it seems to be headed that general direction – so Broadcast Networks had better cut it out with the “shinebox attitude”.

And seriously, to watch Conan, you would think the year is 1985 and the only programming on TBS was really bad VHS copies of really bad 1970s movies and a few Body By Jake infommercials.

This is 2010 and Basic Cable Channels are a key driver and profit center helping to keep the Hollywood machine afloat.

So how about a little respect, Conan? I know you’re only getting $10 million from that suckass TBS that gives you “no budget” (other than a very large one) but come on!

And are you taping this show from some local station in Palmdale or in a very nice soundstage on a very nice Burbank studio lot? And do you have one blimp to promote your show or zero blimps?

And the last I checked, Mad Men on AMC (Basic Cable) won the Emmy for Best Drama; TBS just paid upwards of $2 million/episode for Big Bang Theory (among others); and the ACE Awards (which was a popular punchline for comedians about FIFTEEN YEARS AGO) haven’t been on the air for FIFTEEN YEARS!

I would also argue that with its scripted reruns and movies, TBS and the other top Basic Cable Channels have better daytime programming than any of the Broadcast Station Groups (unless you like Judge shows) and the primetime lineups are equally as creative and catching up in the ratings.

In fact, Broadcast Networks are deep into the 5 Stages of Grief from “On Death and Dying” – and they have been in denial about Basic Cable for years. Retrans is one final pathetic attempt to stay competitive.

So, Conan, I’m sorry you are stuck on lowly TBS when all your life you dreamed of being on NBC (now worth negative $690 million on NBC Universal’s balance sheet) – but the truth is, in today’s media environment, it’s not which channel you are on but the programming you produce.

Remember, even a show shot in a shack in Palmdale can be relevant (and widely seen) today.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – Why doesn’t anyone ever bash MTV for being “Basic Cable”? Just wondering.