For Broadcast Networks, the end is coming and it’s time for them to Accept their fate. (The 2012 Emmy Nominations only strengthen this point.)
This isn’t to say ABC, CBS, FOX, MBS, NBC, Univision and The CW (and similar Broadcast Networks around the world) are going away. They’ll just have to transform into one of the million other “Channels” out there – high profile Channels with good programming and production values – but still just another button on the Great Media Grid like ESPN, TNT, USA, Oxygen, Justin.tv (indeed), YouTube, etc.
According to a model developed by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in her 1969 book “On Death and Dying”, there are Five Stages of Grief.
Over the past 20 years or so, Broadcast Networks have bounced around the First Four Stages in an effort to fight off the inevitable:
1. Denial: Broadcast Networks will always be the only place to reach a large audience. We don’t see that ever going away. No one is going to watch the shit they make on Cable. It’s nothing but George Foreman Grill infomercials and drunken Jackass teenagers riding their bikes into traffic.
2. Anger: It’s just not right! They make such crap on Basic Cable (again – see Emmy Nominations). How are they pulling in more advertising than us?! I don’t give a shit about the ratings of “Jersey Shore”, the content on Broadcast Networks is far superior and always will be. Goddamnit! And don’t you dare mention that fucking “Mad Men” to me again! And Hell will freeze over before we ever produce a series for that inferior platform. There’s no syndication value. It’s bullshit!
3. Bargaining: The playing field is not level. It’s not fair. We really need you cable and satellite operators to pay us to retransmit our signal. Don’t forget – we’re the Broadcast Networks. If you give us two revenue streams, we’ll give you really great programming with high ratings and advertising rates that are healthy for everyone. Don’t you realize there is only one place to reach a large audience?
4. Depression: Remember when Saturday night was the greatest night on television – when three networks (and three network Presidents) controlled every household? Everyone had incredible line-ups. It will never be that good again. Thursday night used to be a place where advertisers needed us to launch a new movie or car or department store sales. Those were the days. Oh well, at least we still have our beach houses and court side basketball seats.
5. Acceptance: It’s going to be okay. It’s not so bad to be equated with TBS. I mean, they have Conan O’Brien now. They are sort of like a Broadcast Network. And we’re still bigger than most of the other Channels. And we’ll get the Super Bowl back one day (after ESPN and The Food Network have their turns). It’s all good.
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The death of Broadcast Networks may not happen in the next five years but it IS going to happen and the sooner we put them out of their misery and end that painful decline, the faster the industry can heal and begin to grow again.
And even though every year in May, the upfronts always seem to break new records (and the Broadcasters will shout that fact from the rooftops in the Trades), make no mistake, nothing can be done to save Broadcast Networks.
It’s an old concept in a new world.
For old school TV executives and their Madison Avenue chronies who are accustomed to lavish Upfront Presentations at Carnegie Hall, Madison Square Garden and the International Space Station, it’s time to just let it go. The Days of Wine and Roses and Fine Dining and Muffin Baskets are over.
Broadcast Network defenders (yes, Les Moonves, this means you) are finding fewer and fewer allies in their argument. Face the facts, ESPN and Google are more valuable than CBS. It may not seem fair – but there are many new Sheriffs in town. Remember, if you’re in a business where single-digit drops in viewers is the New Growth, your business sucks.
So what are the Broadcast Networks supposed to do next? Very simple. Just accept equal footing (two revenue streams – subscription and advertising – enough with this silly Retrans business that no one can understand) and continue to run your business as just another Channel on the Grid.
In the future (and it’s coming), with a channel lineup grid that will be sorted Alphabetically and not by “importance” or “size” (and will include TV channels, websites and whatever else comes up) programming is, as it always has been, King .
And may the best programmer win.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
I don’t think people really think of a difference between channels anymore. It’s all about the brand and History, Discovery, Food. the Broadcast Networks are always mentioned by people as Channel 2, Channel 4, Channel 7.
There’s quality network television, quality cable television and quality premium television. Soon viewers will have a new word to look up in their “television” dictionary – narrowcasting. Good Luck. Loved this column Jill. Can’t wait to read you in the future. You definitely have your finger on the pulse of the remote.
Yeah when they say NBC is worth – $600 million (that’s negative $600 million) there must be a problem.
Nope nope nope. Wrong wrong wrong. Retrans is the savior and is going to be a huge piece of the pie. Broadcast is here to stay.
Just wrote a blog on this subject. Don’t be so quick to drink the cord-cutter kool-aid, technology will not dismantle years of powerful distribution channels and business models. Networks will not die, they will reinvent themselves and the Pay TV model will not go away — there will always be good and bad TV content. The future of audience development will be fragmented in to niche markets, enabled by IP delivery.
http://www.itvt.com/blog/who-will-own-connected-living-room
I didn’t say the networks are going away as channels on the grid. There will still be an ABC, CBS, FOX , NBC, etc. – they just won’t be broadcast networks. NBC will be the equivalent of Bravo – just another channel – powerful, but just another channel. But the idea of the Broadcast channel is dead. Look at the Reelz Channel getting on the map this week with The Kennedys. No one wanted that show and now Reelz is on many people’s radar when it wasn’t before. Content is king and the Broadcasters now have to compete with the former peons of Basic Cable when before they didn’t.
I see this is an older item from April but it’s still sort of true. I think Broadcast has had a nice resurgence lately. Retrans is huge and definitely saved the networks for the time being but for how long. Content is definitely king but no one, especially those under 30, could care less where it comes from. They do care about production values though. Even a 16 year old cares if something looks shitty. So big studios do have the advantage there. Good blog, Jill.
Many nights I will look at the schedule of what is on TV and find nothing of interest. Repeats, people selling people stuff and “reality” shows. The TV goes off, out comes the books, go on line or go out into the real world. Except for the rare exception programming has become garbage. And then they wonder why, oh why, have the ratings fallen. Give us a break.
This article on broadcast networks and their decline is insightful. The shifting media landscape reminds me of how trends evolve in different industries, like the rise in demand for mini tummy tuck Dubai.