Eric Lefkofsky – Page 2

December 18, 2012December 23, 2012

2013: Endgame For Moguls

Allen & Company retreat, Ari Emanuel, Barry Diller, Ben Silverman, Bob Iger, Carol Bartz, DumbDumb, Electus, Eric Schmidt, Gina Bianchini, Herb Allen, Herb Allen Sun Valley Conference, Herbert Allen, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jeffrey Immelt, Jerry Yang, Khan Manka, Lady Gaga, Leslie Moonves, Lloyd Grohl, Manka Bros., Marissa Mayer, Mark Pincus, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Chernin, Phillippe Dauman, Reid Hoffman, Richard Parsons, Ricky Van Veen, Rupert Murdoch, Sergey Brin, Sheryl Sandberg, Steve Jobs, Sun Valley Retreat, Sun Valley Retreat 2010, Terry Semel, World's Largest Media Company, Chase Carey, James Murdoch, Elisabeth Murdoch, Lachlan Murdoch, Jim Gianopulos, Joel Klein, Jon Miller, Steve Burke, Michael Angelakis, Leslie Moonves, Philippe Dauman, Jeff Bewkes, John Martin, Howard Stringer, Rob Wiesenthal, Michael Lynton, John Malone, Greg Maffei, Haim Saban, David Zaslav, John Hendricks, Mike White, Edgar Bronfman, Len Blavatnik, Tim Armstrong, Peter Chernin, Tom Freston, Carol Bartz, Jerry Yang, Mark Pincus, Owen Van Natta, Brian Roberts, Jason Kilar, Wayne Willich, Reid Hoffman, Harvey Weinstein, Diane Von Furstenberg, Andrew Mason, Jason Kilar, Ben Horowitz, Gina Bianchini, Mark Pincus, Ali Pincus, Robert Wiesenthal, Tom Freston, Bing Gordon, Bill Gates, Chris Christie, Martin Sorrell, Eric Lefkofsky, Oprah Winfrey, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook, Cory Booker, Michael Bloomberg, Joel Klein, Lachlan Murdoch, James Murdoch, Bobby Kotick, Marc Andreessen, Peter Thiel, Dick Costolo, Ross Levinsoh, Paul Sagan, Leslie Moonves, Tim Armstrong, Glenn Britt, Donald Graham, Kazuo Hirai, Howard Stringer, Jae-Yong Lee, Bryan Lourd, Ron Meyer, Brad Grey, Edmund Lee, Anthony Palazzo, John Malone, Chris Silbermann, Jim Berkus, Roger Goodell, David Stern, Chris Christie, Julius Genachowski, Erin Burnett, Charlie Rose, Becky Quick, Todd Davidson, Reed Hastings, Terry Semel, Jerry Yang, Ken Allen, Laurene Powell Jobs, Jean-Bernard Levy, Lucian Grainge, Jonathan Boyar, Mark Pincus, Michael Lynton, Mandy Tavakol, Mario Monti, Dave DeVoe, John Martin, Brian Roberts, David Zaslav, Mel Karmazin, Carol Bartz, Scott Thompson, Jason Kilar, King Abdullah II, Queen Rania, Queen Noor, #sv12, #Sunvalley2012, #allenco, Robert Johnson, Anne Sweeney, Brian Grazer, Michael Ovitz, Hiroshi Mikitani, Owen Van Natta, Don Mattrick

Old Hollywood just got another year older and closer to death.

In fact, it’s getting harder and harder for Old Hollywood to get out of bed in the morning.

Food doesn’t taste as good. Hangovers are a daily occurrence.

In short, Old Hollywood is not well.

And with each passing year, as movie studios and broadcast networks become increasingly irrelevant, my thoughts are about real estate.

What is going to happen to all those soundstages and sprawling campuses scattered around Los Angeles and the world when no one needs them anymore?

Soundstages built in the early 20th century by visionaries from Poland, Hungary, New York and Kansas City.

Clearly they won’t be used as much in the future as production costs for high quality content continue to drop and new visionary kids from everywhere else in the world are able to compete head-to-head with the best Hollywood writers and directors.

Perhaps they will be torn down and apartments built. But apartments in those areas are for young writers and actors who move to L.A. to chase that Hollywood dream.

They don’t have to move here anymore.

Perhaps one studio will be turned into a museum of what Hollywood used to look like.

It’s a lot of land, man, and the shopping mall business isn’t so good these days either.

It’s going to be a real problem one day.

As I said earlier this year, YouTube’s Original Content Strategy Is Working and that should put every remaining media mogul on high alert.

The 1975 when millions of families crowded the television on a SATURDAY NIGHT to watch one of the three networks is over.

Now, in all likelihood, a family of five is watching or doing five different things on a Saturday night (and the rest of the week for that matter).

And this has been true for a few years.

In 2013, another profound and symbolic pillar will crumble in the epic story of the Decline and Fall of the Hollywood Empire.

The Mogul.

2013 will see most of the remaining media moguls pathetically fade away from relevance with little fanfare. And that’s sad.

WHO IS LEAVING?

1. Sumner Redstone – Many would say he has already left (despite his attempt to look youthful with that shocking sprayed on orange hair). Sumner has desperately clung to power just as he clung to the side of the hotel ledge years ago to survive a fire. Sumner will be the first to leave in 2013 either by death or senility (though many would argue he has been dead and senile for the past 25 years).

2. Rupert Murdoch – Enough with this guy and his phone tapping and continued interest in buying newspapers. He’s done. There is an outside chance the family empire could continue if Rupert appointed his daughter Elisabeth to the top job (I would buy the stock if that happened). But his continue insistence on giving his idiot sons top jobs will, no doubt, destroy all that he spent his entire life building.

3. Barry Diller – Barry Diller is just tired of it all. Does anyone really think he is excited about owning Ben Silverman’s ridiculous company or CollegeHumor or The Daily Beast or Zwinky or Sports Pickle? Sail away, Barry. The media world no longer needs you. You had a good run. Now go get drunk.

4. Jeffrey Katzenberg – The last mogul standing of DreamWorks SKG (one of the last valiant attempts made to build a true media empire like the old days), Katzenberg will sell DreamWorks Animation for a few billion less than he would have hoped and leave the Hollywood scene. He will go on to become equally annoying in the Art Collection scene.

CLINGING TO POWER

1. The Weinstein Brothers (Harvey and Bob) – Despite several high profile movies (Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Django Unchained) that will probably win quite a few awards this season, the Weinsteins are working with a business model from 1985. Attempted diversification into TV, publishing and interactive nearly cost them everything a few years ago. What they know is how to buy, market and get Awards for small to medium sized movies. And we know where that business is headed.

2. Ryan Kavanaugh – Calling him a mogul is generous (to say the least). Attempted mogul more like it. For some reason people keep giving him money. Hopefully, that stops soon and he is forced to land his helicopter not in Beverly Hills but somewhere out in Palmdale where he can live out his existence with a few other characters from “Day of the Locust.”

WHO IS STAYING?

Khan Manka, Jr. – Despite horrible performances year-over-year in both film and television (and publishing and music, etc.), Khan Manka, Jr. remains firmly at the top of the world’s largest media company. Even though he publicly states how much he hates the job and would rather be at his house in the Seychelles, he continues to stay year-after-year and I don’t see that changing anytime in the near or far future.

2. Thomas Tull (Legendary) – Even though Legendary is more of a high-end financing and production outfit than a media empire, Tull is eyeing much larger things and has the money to do it. How far he actually takes the media empire concept is the question. Is Legendary a new DreamWorks or actually something that will be successful?

3. Hed family of Rovio (Angry Birds) is the closest thing we have these days to a new generation media mogul (and I wish Raj, Mikael and Niklas Hed nothing but the best. DON’T SELL – BUILD!). Like Walt Disney and George Lucas before them, the Heds have a real chance to build an empire from a single group of characters. Their passion and ambition is infectious and they see enormous potential while others laugh in their face. The perfect scenario for global conquest.

—————–

So, 2013, endgame for moguls.

The big ones will fall.

Some smaller ones may rise (on a lower scale).

It will never be the same.

Where is Ted Turner when you really need him?

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – John Malone and Brian Roberts may be considered moguls in today’s terms. I just find them too boring to write about.

October 4, 2012October 4, 2012

Facebook Is Irrelevant

1000Memories, Accel Partners, Amish Jani, Andrew Hyde, Andrew Mason, Andy Sack, Ashton Kutcher, Aydin Senkut, Ben Silverman, Bin 38, Bob Davis, Bob Iger, Brad Feld, Brian Kempner, Chris Hughes, Christopher Steiner, Dan Nova, Daniel Gaisin, Danielle Hootnick, Dave McClure, David Brown, David Cohen, David Kirkpatrick, Demi Moore, Demo Day, Diego Gutierrez, Dustin Moskovitz, Edmond Yue, Eduardo Saverin, Emmett Shear, Eric Lefkofsky, Fergal Mullen, FirstMark Capital, Founders At Work, Francis Duong, Gaurav Tewari, Gerald Levin, Gerald Poch, Greg McAdoo, Greylock Partners, Harjeet Taggar, HBO, Highland Capital Partners, Irena Goldenberg, Jared Polis, Jeff Bewkes, Jeff Weiner, Jeff Zucker, Jessica Livingston, Jessica Mah, Jill Kennedy, Joanna Shields, John Hsin, John Palfrey, Jon Miller, Jr., Justin Kan, Justin.tv, Khan Manka, Larry Wilson, Laurence Albukerk, Lawrence Lenihan, Li Ka-shing, Loopt, Manish Patel, Manka Bros., Mark Cuban, Mark Zuckerberg, Matt Cohler, Matt Nichols, Michael Arrington, Michael Gaiss, MySpace, Nick Marsh, Nicolas Carlson, OnMedea, Owen Van Natta, Paul Buchheit, Paul Cianciolo, Paul Graham, Peter Bell, Peter Thiel, Reddit, Richard de Silva, Richard Heitzman, Rick Heitzmann, Robert Morris, Ron Conway, Rudy Adler, Rupert Murdoch, Sand Hill Road, Scott Shane, Scott Switzer, Sequoia Capital, Sergey Nazarov, Shabbir Dahod, Shawn Broderick, Sheryl Sandberg, Sterling Phillips, Sumner Redstone, Tapzilla, TechCrunch, TechStars, TextPayMe, Toy Story 3, Trevor Blackwell, Y Combinator, google, Eric Schmidt, Tina Brown, The Daily Beast, Barry Diller, Dan Lyons, Google Smear campaign, Burson-Marsteller, Chris Soghoian, Jim Goldman, John Mercurio, Mark Pincus, Zynga, Spotify

So… Facebook has announced it has passed ONE BILLION USERS.

Sounds like a reason for a huge celebration. What an amazingly awesome global community!

We should all rejoice together because we built it… together!

But unlike the supermarket that rewards its one millionth customer with balloons, gifts and plaques and everyone is so happy for the store, the only reaction to Facebook’s announcement is people commenting “Facebook sucks!” “Are they counting all 10 of my accounts including my dogs?” “I quit Facebook months ago.” etc. etc. etc.

Facebook has a problem and it’s one that it will not overcome.

Facebook is irrelevant.

Nobody cares about it anymore. There are no balloons, no cheers, no tears, just… meh.

Sure, people use it to post photos of drinking, of babies and bike riding for charity but we, the connected world, have moved past that boring old shit that used to be slightly cool.

I’m sure to that comment Facebook would say – “No, no, wait, you’re wrong, Jill – people also post funny sayings and signs that they find amusing.”

Indeed, they’re right. How am I supposed to know I should “have an awesome day” if I didn’t see it posted in the morning by one of my “friends”?

In the past, I have written that Facebook Is Worthless, Overvalued, and Must Be Stopped – but now, I just don’t care about it anymore.

I have become Facebook indifferent – it means absolutely nothing to me.

That’s not the way it was supposed to be.

The swagger and smirking of the executives and investors before the IPO made it seem like this was a company like no other on the planet – a truly game changing experience that would actually… change the world.

The world did not change because of Facebook.

We all have the same problems that generations before us had. Politicians still use the same rhetoric. American flags are still burned at overseas Embassies. Famine and hurricanes still occur.

The only positive thing Facebook ever did was allow us to see what our high school and college friends look like today. It doesn’t mean we’re going to have dinner with them or have an actual conversation. But we do get to see if they got fat. That’s it and I suppose that’s worth something.

During the first Presidential Debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney the social media winner of the night was… Twitter.

Nearly all the media outlets and pundits were talking about what happened on Twitter during the debates. Not Facebook. Not LinkedIn. Not Google Plus.

To be serious, I have no idea how they add their numbers to conclude that one billion people are on Facebook.

Perhaps they should say one billion accounts have been set by about 200 million people? We all know people who have multiple accounts (almost everyone) – accounts for dogs, literary characters and just plain fake names that we all use to hide from our “friends” and supposedly Facebook is cracking down on this practice. (By the way, you can “friend” me here.)

And that’s another reason the site sucks – who wants to be completely real on Facebook?

We’re not trying to get a job. We’re not running for office. We’re just trying to spend a few minutes out of our day looking at drunken babies and trying not to be monetized.

So congratulations, Facebook on one billion users – one billion bored, indifferent, and dissatisfied users.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

P.S. – I just thought of a way Facebook could be relevant… they could buy Twitter.

July 24, 2012July 26, 2012

Should We Believe Facebook’s Earnings?

Today is a big day for FB:NASDAQ.

The first earnings release after a pretty crappy IPO.

Needless to say, earnings and guidance must destroy expectations.

This is important for everyone who has a stake in the company – from those who had blind faith in the IPO and bought whatever meager shares they could, to the early investor billionaires and millionaires who were counting on a lot more than they’ve received thus far (greed’s a real pisser), to all the Facebook employees that have lost a bit of their swagger (and future riches) over the last couple of months.

In fact, Silicon Valley as a whole has lost its swagger a bit because of this IPO flop.

A blow-out earnings report would allow all those who were doubted and shunned to say “nah nah nah nah naaaah – told you so – we rock you suck, etc.”

Which makes me wonder, if, indeed, this is a blow-out earnings report despite what many analysts are predicting (consensus: not a blow-out), should the numbers be believed?

Is there a temptation by management and the number crunchers to goose things a bit for this very important first earnings report? Juggle some things. Move stuff around – make it up later. I’m sure they feel they’re smart enough to get around that little “random regulatory audit thing.”

They’ve got millions of made-up users – why not millions of made-up dollars?

There must be that temptation, right? I mean, how much could the SEC fine be in the scheme of things?

I’m sure the immediate reaction to such a wild, speculative (and probably fictional) premise is – “I’m shocked! How dare you presume that Facebook – with its long history of supreme ethics and outstanding morals would even dream of such a thing?”

Maybe it’s just me.

But if we hear on Thursday that there are now over 1 billion users – I’m just not going to believe it (especially when you take out the 200-300 million users that are either animals, aliases or fictional characters).

If they say that people are spending more time than ever on Facebook – I’m just not going to believe it.

If we hear on Thursday that advertising on Facebook has never been better and will continue to grow into 2013 – I’m just not going to believe it.

It is Mark Zuckerberg and Sheryl Sandberg’s job on Thursday is to convince us that things are awesome and getting ‘awesomer’ every day. And when they say that, I am not going to believe it.

But, truth be told, I am not the most bullish person when it comes to Facebook.

After all, I did write “Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale),” and “Facebook Is Worthless,” and “Facebook Must Be Stopped,” and “All The Facebook’s Men,” and “Advertise On Facebook And Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls,” and “Facebook To Reach 7.3 Billion Users By 2015,” and “Y Combinator Is a Stupid Idea” (I just threw in that last one for fun).

But you do have to wonder – it is soooooo important NOT to disappoint and pressure is coming from everywhere to make sure that they don’t.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

January 27, 2012May 15, 2012

Facebook And The Disappearing Valuation (A Fairy Tale)

Once upon a time, in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park, California, there was a company called Facebook.

This company was unlike any other (sorry, make that ‘like MANY others’) in that it connected people from around world through a magical and glorious technical achievement called the Internet.

Everyone loved Facebook:

“Oh my God, it is so easy to upload pictures of my baby!”

“I can’t believe I found all my old high school and college friends so easily!”

“Hey everyone, I’m off to get a coffee – can’t start my day without coffee!”

People from around the world chatted, and shared, and reconnected. There was something really exciting going on in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park.

But then, one day, because Facebook was growing so so so very large – and its bills were growing so so so much – it needed to somehow make money.

Facebook was so kind that they didn’t want to charge people for the privilege of using its service – so it added advertising. Advertising so tiny that the people of the world didn’t even noticed the ads were there.

“There are ads on Facebook? You know, I’ve never seen one – and I certainly have never clicked on one! Good for them.”

Perhaps Mean Old Mr. Advertiser started to realize that no one was clicking or even noticing his ads.

But little Facebook still needed to get paid – I mean, even a whore has to eat – so they decided to work something out with Mean Old Mr. Advertiser.

Maybe they could somehow leverage their size and sell the personal information of their 900 million users. Would that keep Mean Old Mr. Advertiser off their backs so they could resume their happy life of connecting the world and bringing nothing but joy?

Facebook was so kind to its users that they even added a “Like” button (because “Like” is much nicer than “Dislike” and Coca-Cola doesn’t want to see how many people “Dislike” Coke Zero).

It was so simple, users could either “Like” something or choose not to hit the “Like” button. It was up to the user.

That worked for awhile until the users of the world started to realize what was happening. Many users got angry and felt their privacy was being invaded.

About 15 people actually quit Facebook (while another 100 million signed up).

After a few months, things calmed in the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park and the people on Facebook – to a lesser degree – felt fairly happy again.

But then, one day, Facebook decided that the users of the world needed to share every bit of information about their lives – from birth to even death – and put it all into a very conforming and dizzying glop of data called Timeline.

Mean Old Mr. Advertiser LOVED the idea of Timeline.

Finally, Facebook was thinking like him. Now they got the idea. Mean Old Mr. Advertiser could scour the lives of the people of the world and target them with goods and services that they may or may not enjoy.

And somehow, in just a brief eight years of existence – little Facebook grew and grew and grew and became worth $100 BILLION FUCKING DOLLARS! Oh, goodness, pardon me. (An IPO last year would been insane! What a missed opportunity!… but I digress.)

Well, from here the story gets a little tragic.

The beaten down people of the world and users of Facebook grew so exhausted from the daily overhauls of the site (which were necessary to maximize revenue) that they actually stopped spending time on Facebook – instead reading real books to their children and enjoying the outside world.

Comments started to appear on other websites (yes, there are actually other websites) saying they hate Facebook, are never going back and are quitting.

Poor little Facebook. They just wanted to HELP the world – not FUCK OVER the world.

How could a crappy redesign and a selling of their soul piss people off so much?

It’s just a website after all (one that is on its way to becoming WORTHLESS and must be STOPPED for the good of the world!… one more digression).

I mean, why do the people of the world care so much?

Well, we all know how the story ends.

Disgruntled engineers (and let’s assume an MBA or two) who helped create the chaos from the direction of Uncle Mark and Aunt Sheryl, began grumbling about their need to become millionaires and billionaires like so many of their friends.

The only way to stop them from leaving the tiny hamlet of Menlo Park – and going to, oh, say, the dangerous crack alleys of Mountain View and Cupertino to seek their fortune – was to take the company public.

By selling $5 or $10 billion dollars in stock to the ‘public’ (at a BULLSHIT valuation of $100 billion!) everyone could become rich and (yes) happy.

So at least the employees of Facebook will now be happy. The people of the world, who are seriously beginning to hate Facebook and are either leaving or staying away in droves, are less and less happy every day.

But Mean Old Mr. Facebook couldn’t care less – the users can go fuck themselves.

“Just put your freakin’ family photos in the template we have provided, “Like” the new Coke Zero, play the stupid Zynga games, pay for a movie rental, pay for a music subscription, and keep your stupid mouth shut. We’re not getting to a trillion dollar valuation from pictures of your goddamned baby!”

Mean Old Mr. Facebook is right. The User is wrong.

The moral of the story: Don’t screw your users. They’re the ones that built you up and they’re the ones that will bring you down.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

September 1, 2011December 12, 2011

Facebook Must Be Stopped

There is an evil temptation that far too many companies are having trouble resisting – the temptation to launch a new product or service on Facebook.

Every month, when the number of Facebook users seem to go up by 100 million or so – to a current tally of 750 million (let’s be serious, about half are most likely fictional or animals), the CEOs of most entertainment and technology companies get the crazy urge to somehow “tap into that customer base.”

This crazy urge must be resisted. Why? So Facebook is destroyed and the people of the world can go on to a much more interesting existence.

In my opinion, doing business with Facebook is the equivalent of doing business with China. Companies feel they need break into the Chinese market because there is FREAKING 1.3 BILLION PEOPLE THERE! “If we just get 0.0001% we’ll be successful. It’s a no brainer!”

And nearly every company goes there with their hat in their hand – giving every insane concession imaginable just to get in the door – and, eventually, come home with a giant footprint on their ass.

Reminder: The Chinese government can do whatever they want. The deal signed means nothing. If they don’t like your attitude or your product or just feel you’re getting a little “too friendly”, they’ll cut you off and send you home a miserable failure. And it doesn’t matter how many cartons of cigarettes or bottles of Slivovitz you give local officials. When it’s over, it’s over.

This is also true of Facebook.

I firmly believe Facebook could absolutely destroy Zynga (and numerous other companies) overnight. They have that power.

Granted, there is too much money at stake with Zynga’s upcoming IPO, so they probably won’t exert that power. But do you think the Zynga executives are going to do anything to antagonize Facebook… ever? Mark Zuckerberg knows the power he has over Mark Pincus.

That is another reason why Facebook must be stopped. Too many people are believing the hype and are afraid of being left behind.

Every day, Facebook dominates technology news. Press release after press release announces Facebook’s new initiatives and services. Their PR department sends out a press release, websites rewrite them slightly and, pow, you have technology news with a narrative controlled by… Facebook.

This week came a “leak” that they will be going into the Music business by blending streaming services such as Spotify, rdio and MOG into the Facebook user experience.

After all, why should anyone have to leave Facebook to listen to music? Why should anyone have to leave Facebook ever?

(I am working on a product that integrates Facebook into my morning shower. There must be a way to combine my Facebook news feed with the water from the shower head so my friend’s status updates directly enter my pores and absorb into my brain. But I digress….)

Spotify is a great service. They don’t need Facebook. People on Facebook don’t complain about having to toggle away from Facebook in order to go onto Spotify. It ain’t broke, don’t fix it!

Spotify and other media companies need to resist the temptation of the 750 million non-paying users (which includes millions of dogs and cats who don’t really care what songs they listen to).

And look at this growth chart (left). 7.3 billion users in 2015 vs. only 7.2 billion people alive on the planet!

Major media companies (including my parent company Manka Bros. Studios) need to realize that Facebook needs them more than they need Facebook. (Manka Bros. is actually working on a ‘Facebook Killer’ – Caligula – to launch later this year but I fear it will be more of the same.)

Content is the driver of everything in media. Put a great movie on a crappy 13 inch black & white TV and it’s still a great movie and people will watch it. Put a shitty movie on a 110″ inch HD television screen with Dolby SurroundSound, movie lighting and a cocktail, and it’s still a shitty movie that no one will watch.

Facebook needs to realize that the only reason they are popular is because we all have this urge to see what our friends from high school and college look like now. That’s it really. It’s not to watch “The Dark Knight” for 30 Facebook Credits or buy pigs on “Farmville” (millions do it, I know, and why not? – it’s right there in front of us and we’re freakin’ bored with our lives).

But I think it’s time to break away and see what else is out there in the world.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

August 5, 2011August 5, 2011

Wall Street Reminder: Nobody Knows Anything

OK – so the U.S. got downgraded by S&P (AA+) for the first time in its history. Whatever. It’s all just a game anyway.

Most talking heads throughout the weekend will say Monday will be a bloodbath on Wall Street and that many investors will be clamoring to yank out their cash.

But I must remind anyone who has money in the market (me!), out of the market and all those on the fence that “nobody knows anything.”

This phrase, coined by William Goldman in “Adventures In The Screen Trade” (worth a read even for non-screenwriters), is absolutely true in almost all industries and in almost all cases where someone is trying to predict the future.

In the movie business, the phrase was basically referring to the major studios’ inability to know what movies would work at the box office and what movies would fail. As it turns out, with all the historical data at our fingertips… nobody knows anything.

And the same goes for Wall Street:

Meredith Whitney, hotsy-totsy Queen of the Double-Dip, has no clue where the markets are going (though she seems to be praying for a downturn – probably more out of concern for her reputation than for the country).

That whack job Ray Dalio – founder of Bridgewater Associates (subject of a brilliant piece by John Cassidy in the New Yorker) – has no clue where the markets are going (though, to be fair, the whack job has been more successful than most in guessing lately).

The government, your parents, your children, Warren Buffett, CNBC, Fox News, Bloomberg, TechCrunch, your friends on social networks – nobody knows anything.

If they did, then Wednesday night I would have received a text or seen a tweet or a Facebook status update that said “The Dow will fall 512 points tomorrow – you may want to make a couple of portfolio moves.”

I didn’t get that message from any of those people who “know so much”. Just like I won’t get any correct message this weekend about what will happen on Monday. Because nobody knows anything about what will happen on Monday!

So this weekend, as we all think about our personal finances, don’t make knee-jerk decisions based on something someone says on television or an internet blog.

This may sound overly simplistic, but just go with your gut and calm the freak down. There are a lot great healthy American companies out there and they deserve your confidence.

But, then again, I don’t know anything either – and I certainly don’t know how “Rise of the Planet of the Apes” is going to perform this weekend – perhaps $35 million, perhaps $65 million. It’s a crap shoot.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

August 3, 2011December 2, 2011

OnMedea Raises $50 At A $1 Billion Valuation

I did it!

So, my mom sent me a check for $50 because she wanted to buy a piece of my growing media empire. (The growing part is a yet-to-launch blog on the insane nightlife of La Canada, CA called “La Canada Nights”.)

I told my mom her share of the company would be based on a $1 billion valuation (as it seems that’s the only valuation there is for a company these days).

For that $50 she will own 0.00000005% of the company. As part of my deal with Manka Bros., I own 50% of OnMedea (valued at $500 million), Manka Bros. owns another 20%($200 million) and Khan Manka, Jr. owns the remaining 30% ($300 million). My mom’s share will come out of my piece.

While some would say this is an outrageously high valuation and a sign that we are truly in a bubble – it’s really no more ridiculous than Airbnb, LinkedIn, Zynga, Groupon, Facebook or (fill in Y Combinator’s next spin-off here).

You could argue – hey, your annual revenues are in the low four figures, Zynga makes hundreds of millions (mid nine figures).

Point taken.

But here’s my point: A pumped up valuation is exactly that.

The key question for the entire financial ecosystem of Silicon Valley is, why do you do it? Answer: Because you can’t stop yourselves.

A fair valuation is not even on your radar because greed and jealousy take over. ‘That guy over there is 21 and got $200 million, I’m 25 and I’m only getting $100 million? F that!’

Why is everyone so desperate to reach THE BIG $B? Is just because of that one line of dialogue in “The Social Network”? Goddamn that is shallow… oh, yeah, right… I forgot who I am writing about.

Seriously, what’s wrong with a $350 million FAIR valuation and then show the world that you can grow and be worth more? Or a $50 million FAIR valuation? This obsession with “BILLION” is going to bring the entire system crashing down in the next year or so.

Bullshit is bullshit is bullshit…

But I digress… today, yippee-ki-yay, OnMedea is worth $1 billion dollars!

Suck on it.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

May 12, 2011May 12, 2011

All The Facebook’s Men

As soon as I read The Daily Beast story about Facebook’s alleged smear (whisper) campaign against Google, I immediately thought of the scene in “All The President’s Men” with all the newspaper editors sitting around deciding which stories to run the next day.

When Watergate is brought up, there is stiff resistance from a couple of the editors.

This scene (replacing ‘Watergate’ with ‘Facebook’) could easily have played out at The Daily Beast with the change of a few words in the screenplay:

INT. THE DAILY BEAST – BUDGET MEETING

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Let me tell you what happened when I was having lunch today at Locanda Verde–

TINA BROWN: Correction – when you were drinking your lunch at the bar of Locanda Verde–

The room erupts in laughter.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: –this Facebook guy, a good one, a pro, came up and asked what is the “Google smear” compulsion with you guys and I said, well, we think it’s important and he said, if it’s so goddamn important, who the hell is Dan Lyons?

INNOVATION EDITOR: Fake Steve Jobs for one – but I digress. Ask him what he’s really saying – he means to take the story away from Dan Lyons and give it to his people at the Sexy Beast.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Well, I’ve got some pretty experienced people sitting around, wouldn’t you say so?

INNOVATION EDITOR: Absolutely, and that’s all they do, sit sit sit – every once in a while they reprint Michael Arrington, some reporting–

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Well, what if Dan Lyons get it wrong–

TINA BROWN: Then it’s Barry Diller’s ass, isn’t it? And we’ll all have to go work for a living.

The room clears, only a couple of Editors and Tina Brown stay behind:

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: I don’t think we should cover this story, period.

TINA BROWN: Go on.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: It’s not that we’re using unnamed sources that bothers me, or that everything we print Facebook denies.

TINA BROWN: What then?

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: I don’t believe the goddamn story, Tina, it doesn’t make sense.

TINA BROWN: It will, it just hasn’t bottomed out yet, give it time.

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Look, why would Facebook do it? My God, Google is self-destructing before our eyes – just like MySpace did, Friendster, the bunch of ’em. Why would Burson-Marsteller send emails to bloggers urging them to write negative stories about Google, unless they wanted to get caught? Why would Burson go to Politico, The Washington Post and The Huffington Post, unless they wanted to get caught?

TINA BROWN: Are you saying Google started a whisper campaign against itself?

SEXY BEAST EDITOR: Jill Kennedy at OnMedea thinks it’s possible – Google needs some positive press, corruption’s always a good one. Get off the story, Tina – or put some people on Google’s public relations team – fair is fair, even in our business.

—————————————-

Hey, we’re early enough in this conspiracy where all theories are in play.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

Click here to read the scene from the original script of “All The President’s Men”

January 13, 2011April 3, 2011

The Trouble With Groupon

I believe Groupon is headed for failure.

Even if they somehow survive, I fear they are doomed to be a company we all view with complete indifference.

I don’t write this lightly. I was amazed and sort of proud that they had the balls to turn down Google’s $6 billion offer.

Founders and senior management becoming fabulously wealthy excepted, there really is no upside to signing away your soul to a giant soulless corporation (take that Manka Bros.!) if you have a solid business or at least unique concept that absolutely cannot fail.

I was rooting for this upstart that had the guts to resist billions. I signed up and started to get the daily deals that were offered – “40% off a facial ($75 value!)”; “Pay $10 for $20 worth of hair products (not my brand)”, etc… these horrible “deals” kept coming and coming and I kept NOT BUYING. Now I believe they should have sold.

Groupon is not a terrible business – a little annoying, a notch above Spammer – but it’s basically a business that pushes all this crap on people that they don’t need (and from my experience, mostly stuff that I don’t even want). The brilliance they have is that they make you think you’re getting these amazing deals and you’d better buy soon or they’re gone forever. Consumers will wise up to this fairly quickly.

Sure, millions are buying (with Groupon keeping well over 50% of the proceeds) and it’s probably good for some of the small businesses that are participating (though I have heard of several disaster stories) – but it’s really just a sexier online version of Valpak – those blue envelopes of local coupons that we all get in the mail and we mostly ignore.

If Groupon really wanted to add value to my life, they would offer “50% off my Trader Joe’s bill”; “$5,000 off a 2011 Prius”; “$10 will get you $20 in cash”, etc. Things like that would be valuable to me. I would buy those. But Groupon can’t offer these things because Trader Joe’s and Toyota would be crazy to do it (and wouldn’t even dream of it) and the shit Groupon actually has to offer isn’t really… real. It’s just made up facts and figures to make you believe you’re getting a great deal.

Let’s say I own a Day Spa and offer $50 off a $300 massage. What makes it a $300 massage? I own the Spa, I set the price – there is no $50 value to be saved. I could go to another spa and get a $50 massage and save $200 more than I would have buying the Groupon. Groupon’s genius is convincing consumers that they are saving money on these great services when, really, the cheapest option is NOT TO BUY GROUPONS. That costs zero ($0) dollars.

And now, because the business model is so easy to replicate, I’m getting offers from Groupilicious, CouponYou, My Little Deuce Coupon, CouponDeville, Grouper With A Squeeze of Lemon, etc. and it will never stop because local businesses will always try to drum up sales by knocking 40% off a price that they set themselves. Buy it wholesale, mark up the price 100%, offer a Groupon for 40% off – still make 20% on the sale. It’s not difficult.

Right now Groupon is sexy. Even sexier after turning down Google. They are hiring an army of MBAs in their 20s, everybody dresses down – it’s a real startup mentality, it’s Chicago, it’s exciting. Hell, an IPO is coming!

But I look into the future, and all I see is Valpak. Ever been to a Valpak office? Not sexy. Not exciting. No roller skates, no ping pong – the only perks there are 20% off bagels when you buy one dozen.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea

November 5, 2010December 9, 2011

Advertise On Facebook – Reach More People Than 10 Super Bowls!

Does this mean an ad will cost $40 million dollars per spot?

So, I was just on Facebook – along with 800+ million of my friends (soon to be be 7.3 billion) – and couldn’t help notice the sidebar banner ad pitch to “Advertise On Facebook” (see left).

Now, I’ve never noticed an ad on Facebook. Not one. And I don’t think I’m alone.

So why would I pay anything to advertise on Facebook? Because you can’t afford NOT to have your product or brand in front of 800 MILLION POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS. Right?

Because fear works when you’re pitching your platform to advertising agencies – “You need us more than we need you.” So it’s better to make an expensive ad buy on Facebook, even though no one will see your ad, than to be left behind.

Do they think we’re idiots? At least on television, even if the ad is being skipped in fast motion, you see the product. On Facebook, you don’t even notice the ad and, if you did, you wouldn’t care because you don’t want to see advertising when you’re on Facebook.

The only ad tactic that seems to work on Facebook is the one where hot young girls (old dudes pretending to be hot young girls) to “Friend” guys and then post non-stop about how they “LOVE THEIR NEW NISSAN SENTRA” and how much “The New Coke Zero ROX!”

Let I said before, Facebook, unless they start to charge user fees or do those horribly annoying ads that pop right in your face when you log in, is on the road to becoming worthless.

Jill Kennedy – OnMedea