Seriously, what is their problem?
Just because some guy says 12 are dead – doesn’t mean you post it. Even Rupert Murdoch should know that (maybe not).
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
The New York Post Gets It Wrong… Again
Aereo Will Fail
Make no mistake – there is no chance Aereo will survive longer than two or three years. That’s a best-case scenario.
Broadcast Networks are dying (it’s true) and will be dead in their current form within five years.
In five years, who is going to pay $8 a month for nothing?
Where are all those little antennas going to go once Broadcast Networks cease to exist?
What sort of business launches with this sort of insane hype that, at most, will only exist for five years?
A Barry Diller company, of course.
The only useful purpose Aereo has is that it will play a part in hastening the inevitable demise of Broadcast Networks.
That’s something, I guess.
I wrote a couple of years ago that Broadcast Networks were in denial (BROADCAST NETWORKS: ON DEATH AND DYING – April 1, 2011). That the executives were longing for the old days of The Big Five.
Now they’re just trying to survive at any cost.
New shows aren’t working. The upfronts next month will be terrible (regardless of what the networks will actually say in their trumped up press releases and over-the-top presentations).
But things aren’t completely dire.
Chase Carey has the right idea but he shouldn’t say that he’ll make FOX a cable channel as a threat to Aereo. He should make FOX a cable channel because it would be a good business decision. It’s really the ONLY business decision.
It is time for Broadcast Networks to accept that the world has changed. “The Mary Tyler Moore Show” is no longer the number one show. And new shows like “How To Live With Your Parents (For The Rest Of Your Life)” will not save you now.
Basic cable and becoming just another button on the infinite media grid of the future is the only chance ABC, CBS, MBS, NBC and FOX have to survive.
Love him or hate him (most hate him), Barry Diller has, once again, disrupted an industry in desperate need of change.
If he wasn’t so gooey I would be cheering him on.
For $20 million dollars, he is forcing a $50 billion industry to join the 21st century. Now that’s getting a bang for your buck.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – Who knew Barry Diller enjoyed fishing so much? Here’s a great story of a recent fishing trip.
Stuck Between Old and New Media
Hollywood is stuck.
New York is stuck.
Silicon Valley is stuck.
No one can really do anything too exciting because old media is still hanging around – refusing to give up the crown.
Don’t get me wrong – OLD MEDIA IS DYING – but they’re not dead yet.
DVDs are dying – but they’re not dead yet.
We can assume that digital downloads and streaming will be the format of choice in the future – but we don’t know how it will all be quantified. Will people buy digital movies and store them in the cloud using UltraViolet and iTunes or just rent from Redbox and subscribe to Netflix?
Broadcast Networks ARE dying – but they’re not dead yet.
Will YouTube become a go to destination for entertainment on par with broadcast and cable channels? OK, that’s easy – YES – and soon.
Will Netflix realize its dream and become another HBO? Probably not. Just because “House of Cards” sort of works doesn’t mean the next five or ten shows will.
Printed books are dying – but they’re not dead yet. Will eBooks be enough to sustain an entire industry? (And Gay Moroccan Poetry definitely isn’t going to turn things around.)
Magazines are dying – YEP, they’re pretty much dead. And the online future of magazines isn’t bright at all.
Same with printed newspapers. And newspapers online will not be able to cover the costs at their current levels – so look for further contraction of that industry.
Theatrical Distribution of movies and events is most likely here to stay when many thought a couple of years ago that the format would die (though 3D WILL die).
Even Facebook and LinkedIn feel like old school media companies that are wearing out their welcome. They’ll eventually go out of business. In the meantime, they’ll just stick around and be as boring as ever.
How crazy is it that the Music Industry almost seems relatively healthy (after a decade of torture and pain)? As horrible as was, at least they’ve made the transition to digital – and now, though smaller, they’re actually growing again. But for how long? Nobody knows.
It’s limbo.
We can’t see what the future will be because the past won’t go away.
Too many unanswered questions.
With everything so completely up in the air, it’s a terrible time to be in the media business.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
2013: Endgame For Moguls
Old Hollywood just got another year older and closer to death.
In fact, it’s getting harder and harder for Old Hollywood to get out of bed in the morning.
Food doesn’t taste as good. Hangovers are a daily occurrence.
In short, Old Hollywood is not well.
And with each passing year, as movie studios and broadcast networks become increasingly irrelevant, my thoughts are about real estate.
What is going to happen to all those soundstages and sprawling campuses scattered around Los Angeles and the world when no one needs them anymore?
Soundstages built in the early 20th century by visionaries from Poland, Hungary, New York and Kansas City.
Clearly they won’t be used as much in the future as production costs for high quality content continue to drop and new visionary kids from everywhere else in the world are able to compete head-to-head with the best Hollywood writers and directors.
Perhaps they will be torn down and apartments built. But apartments in those areas are for young writers and actors who move to L.A. to chase that Hollywood dream.
They don’t have to move here anymore.
Perhaps one studio will be turned into a museum of what Hollywood used to look like.
It’s a lot of land, man, and the shopping mall business isn’t so good these days either.
It’s going to be a real problem one day.
As I said earlier this year, YouTube’s Original Content Strategy Is Working and that should put every remaining media mogul on high alert.
The 1975 when millions of families crowded the television on a SATURDAY NIGHT to watch one of the three networks is over.
Now, in all likelihood, a family of five is watching or doing five different things on a Saturday night (and the rest of the week for that matter).
And this has been true for a few years.
In 2013, another profound and symbolic pillar will crumble in the epic story of the Decline and Fall of the Hollywood Empire.
The Mogul.
2013 will see most of the remaining media moguls pathetically fade away from relevance with little fanfare. And that’s sad.
WHO IS LEAVING?
1. Sumner Redstone – Many would say he has already left (despite his attempt to look youthful with that shocking sprayed on orange hair). Sumner has desperately clung to power just as he clung to the side of the hotel ledge years ago to survive a fire. Sumner will be the first to leave in 2013 either by death or senility (though many would argue he has been dead and senile for the past 25 years).
2. Rupert Murdoch – Enough with this guy and his phone tapping and continued interest in buying newspapers. He’s done. There is an outside chance the family empire could continue if Rupert appointed his daughter Elisabeth to the top job (I would buy the stock if that happened). But his continue insistence on giving his idiot sons top jobs will, no doubt, destroy all that he spent his entire life building.
3. Barry Diller – Barry Diller is just tired of it all. Does anyone really think he is excited about owning Ben Silverman’s ridiculous company or CollegeHumor or The Daily Beast or Zwinky or Sports Pickle? Sail away, Barry. The media world no longer needs you. You had a good run. Now go get drunk.
4. Jeffrey Katzenberg – The last mogul standing of DreamWorks SKG (one of the last valiant attempts made to build a true media empire like the old days), Katzenberg will sell DreamWorks Animation for a few billion less than he would have hoped and leave the Hollywood scene. He will go on to become equally annoying in the Art Collection scene.
CLINGING TO POWER
1. The Weinstein Brothers (Harvey and Bob) – Despite several high profile movies (Silver Linings Playbook, The Master, Django Unchained) that will probably win quite a few awards this season, the Weinsteins are working with a business model from 1985. Attempted diversification into TV, publishing and interactive nearly cost them everything a few years ago. What they know is how to buy, market and get Awards for small to medium sized movies. And we know where that business is headed.
2. Ryan Kavanaugh – Calling him a mogul is generous (to say the least). Attempted mogul more like it. For some reason people keep giving him money. Hopefully, that stops soon and he is forced to land his helicopter not in Beverly Hills but somewhere out in Palmdale where he can live out his existence with a few other characters from “Day of the Locust.”
WHO IS STAYING?
Khan Manka, Jr. – Despite horrible performances year-over-year in both film and television (and publishing and music, etc.), Khan Manka, Jr. remains firmly at the top of the world’s largest media company. Even though he publicly states how much he hates the job and would rather be at his house in the Seychelles, he continues to stay year-after-year and I don’t see that changing anytime in the near or far future.
2. Thomas Tull (Legendary) – Even though Legendary is more of a high-end financing and production outfit than a media empire, Tull is eyeing much larger things and has the money to do it. How far he actually takes the media empire concept is the question. Is Legendary a new DreamWorks or actually something that will be successful?
3. Hed family of Rovio (Angry Birds) is the closest thing we have these days to a new generation media mogul (and I wish Raj, Mikael and Niklas Hed nothing but the best. DON’T SELL – BUILD!). Like Walt Disney and George Lucas before them, the Heds have a real chance to build an empire from a single group of characters. Their passion and ambition is infectious and they see enormous potential while others laugh in their face. The perfect scenario for global conquest.
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So, 2013, endgame for moguls.
The big ones will fall.
Some smaller ones may rise (on a lower scale).
It will never be the same.
Where is Ted Turner when you really need him?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – John Malone and Brian Roberts may be considered moguls in today’s terms. I just find them too boring to write about.
Did David Petraeus Have An Affair or “An Affair”?
Seriously, Fox News?
Seriously, Drudge Report (see headline below)?
Seriously, Rupert Murdoch (Tweeted: Petraeus resignation. Timing, everything suspicious)
So General Petraeus had “an affair” (meaning you don’t believe he had an affair) which caused him to leave the CIA in disgrace?
As much as you would like it to happen, something does not become a scandal before the facts are known – not that that has ever stopped you before.
What IS a scandal is that Fox News and Drudge Report keep trying to create scandals that bring down the President.
I’m sorry but using quote marks to illustrate your non-belief of the story before the facts come out is journalism at its crappiest.
Newsflash to Fox News and company – Your Polls Were Wrong, Barack Obama Is President – suck it up, stop whining and move on.
Here are some of the headlines from high profile news sources after today’s surprising announcement that David Petraeus has resigned as CIA Director following an admission to an extramarital affair:
Yes, Fox News, you might be onto something – David Petraeus is obviously saying he cheated on his wife of 37 years and is throwing his long career and future down the toilet just to cover up for the President’s mistakes in Benghazi.
Get Mitt Romney and Karl Rove on the phone – tell them there is still chance! Ohio is back in play!
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Dueling Fanatics
Two very popular websites and what they posted at exactly 3:00 PM Pacific time today (October 2nd).
The real question going into the debates tomorrow isn’t who will win – Obama or Romney? (FYI, Fox News has already declared Mitt Romney the winner.)
The real question is which website will be able to bring down the candidate they hate before November 6th?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Fox News Declares Mitt Romney the Winner of the First Presidential Debate
Also declaring Mitt Romney a winner are Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter.
How is that possible? The debate doesn’t even happen until October 3rd.
Here’s how: Fox News is really pushing a specific storyline about the upcoming debate. They are calling it “Do or Die” for Mitt Romney.
If that’s true, do you really expect the Fox News election team to sit there after the debate and say “Mitt Romney lost the Presidency tonight”? “Boy did he lose that one.” “I’ve never seen such a horrible performance.” “Barack Obama got my vote tonight.”
Of course not.
They will say, guaran-freakin-teed, that Mitt Romney easily defeated President Barack Obama in the debate. They’ll say “Romney was up against the wall and he came out fighting.” “It was ‘Do or Die’ and Romney is still very much alive!” etc. etc. etc.
Romney could come out, stare into the camera and complete freeze up – never saying a word and Sean Hannity would say “Frankly, he was just speechless over how bad the Obama presidency has been.”
Romney could come out and throw up all over the stage and Limbaugh would say “It was a very real moment. I wish more of our Presidential candidates would have the courage to throw up on national television.”
Romney could come out and punch Obama right in the mouth and Hannity would say “It was great. He was just expressing how so many Americans feel about President Obama’s job performance.”
He could do that bit about holding a gun to a puppy’s head and say “Vote for me or the dog gets it” and Ann Coulter would say “See, he likes animals. He didn’t actual shoot that dog.”
There is absolutely no question about. I’m sure they already writing the script for Wednesday night’s broadcast. They don’t need to see the debate to decide what they are going to say. That’s for the losers in the real news business.
According to Fox News (and many others on the Right), Mitt Romney has won a debate that hasn’t even happened.
And that’s some seriously fucked up shit.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
P.S. – And spare me the “But NBC News has already decided Barack Obama is the winner of the debate…” argument – nobody is as predictable or as harmful to the country as Fox News.
Yahoo! Finally Does Something Right
SCREAMING BUY!
YHOO is headed for $50/share.
Marissa Mayer is a perfect choice.
Great for Yahoo!
Great for Silicon Valley.
It’s a stunning move – completely shocking and unexpected.
If you’re worried about her pregnancy – then shame on you.
Her pregnancy makes me even more bullish on the stock.
Marissa is going to make this work and no one should question it (especially the loser stock holders who, for some reason, were holding Yahoo! stock before this announcement).
I, frankly, didn’t think the Yahoo! Board had the cojones to make such a choice.
Well done.
And next year, at Herb Allen’s Sun Valley Conference crap-fest for moguls, there will be a new Woman of Sun Valley (sorry Sheryl Sandberg).
And if, for whatever reason, things don’t work out (very small chance), Ms. Mayer can take comfort that like her predecessors Scott Thompson, Jerry Yang and Carol Bartz, Manka Bros. will offer her a job.
Good luck, Marissa (don’t read too many blog comments).
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Andrew Breitbart – Dead And Already Forgotten
Andrew Breitbart died just after midnight last night.
He was 43 years old.
I offer my deepest condolences to his family and friends. A sudden death like this is incredibly tragic.
Yes, he was an asshole (at least in my mind) and a much hated Right Wing Conservative political bomb thrower. He rarely cared who he verbally stepped on, attacked or ruined.
To be fair, he was also much loved (I suppose) by the Far Right.
But politics is not the point here.
The point is – the man died last night.
The media has already flashed the “Breaking News” alert, flooded social media, analyzed his impact on society, put forward ideas on who will replace him on the bomb throwing Right, etc.
The man has been dead for less than 9 hours!
It immediately reminded me of CNN’s 9/11 coverage. I distinctly remember Jeff Greenfield standing on CNN’s roof with the World Trade Center still standing far in the background with smoke pouring out after the planes hit (and minutes before the collapse) and he’s basically summing up what it will all mean historically and what can we learn from this tragedy.
News coverage today is a complete joke and further proof that the world’s attention span is completely shot. With one final TWEET, Andrew was gone – forever.
What kind of a world are we living in when Davy Jones’ death (yesterday) is old news?
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea
Because of Sean Hannity, Republicans May Never Win Again
And that’s fine with me.
In 2010, when the Tea Party won quite a few House seats and a couple of Senate seats , many people were wrongly tricked into believing that a serious political movement had begun and a rise of the Far Right was imminent.
(Frankly, I believe these were ‘protest candidate’ candidates that were elected mostly because the country was at the height of the Great Recession and there was a lot of misery and demand for change out there.)
Well, the call for change is coming to an end, the country is on the mend and the Republicans that want to keep their jobs are drifting back to the center.
And if they don’t drift to the center they will, most likely, be voted out of office because the wacko Right is no longer a viable alternative.
And, I believe, much of this rejection of change is because of a Sean Hannity EPIC FAIL.
It turns out, the majority of Americans do not want to live in Sean Hannity’s world.
His is a world of constant conflict for the sake of ratings. A world of hammering a message over and over and over again turning his audience into something similar to school children in North Korea.
And it’s a message that never wavers: “Anyone but Obama…” (The Republican pundit establishment has apparently changed that slightly – “Anyone but Obama or Romney…”)
Well, because of this message – and the millions who follow Mr. Hannity – the Republicans may well be stuck with Rick ‘The Stick’ Santorum (just as they nearly got stuck with Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry).
I can now confirm, with 0% of the vote counted, Rick Santorum has LOST the 2012 general election to President Obama.
There is no question Santorum has already lost without one vote being counted. Bob Dole’s loss to Bill Clinton in 1996 will be considered a close race compared to an Obama vs. Santorum election.
Santorum will, most likely, get the lowest number of female votes in the history of Presidential elections (unless you count the Presidential races in which women did not have the right to vote).
However, Santorum will, most likely, win the Fascist vote as he is the candidate with the most images on the internet with a Hitler mustache Photoshopped onto his face.
Now, what’s crazy about all this is I firmly believe Sean Hannity, deep down, doesn’t care how people live their lives. I firmly believe that if the ratings dictated a different point of view, Mr. Hannity would shift on a dime to the Left and still claim that his moral compass has never wavered.
He would refute this claim vehemently. And, to be fair, he has never had to face that problem because there are millions of Americans that he has focused on that love the bomb throwing, the red meat and any other political metaphor you can think of.
But because of this extremism and, yes, short-sighted view of the world, Sean Hannity is costing his political party the chance to win against a vulnerable incumbent.
It is obvious we are living in a crazy time when Ann Coulter is the voice of reason at CPAC. Say what you want about her, she is not a stupid person. She knows there is only one candidate that has a slight chance against President Obama and that is Mitt Romney.
Why the Republican establishment hasn’t thrown everything behind Mitt is beyond me. Perhaps it’s because there is also a feeling Mitt Romney cannot win either. (I am one of those people.)
But he’s really the only choice there is to even get close to the lofty John McCain numbers of 2008.
Of course, Sean Hannity (and Rush and all the others) could swing things by full on endorsing Mr. Romney. But if he did, he would lose half his audience and his street cred as a bomb throwing ‘lover of freedom’ (though most people would consider ‘love’ and ‘freedom’ two things that are lacking in his political philosophy).
Mr. Hannity really doesn’t care who is President. It is probably more fun for him to criticize President Obama than it was to defend President Bush. And it certainly won’t be fun for him to have to defend President Santorum (who, remember, has 0% chance to win).
Like I said – it’s completely fine with me. The implosion of the Grand Old Party is actually quite amusing.
God speed, Sean Hannity – you are President Obama’s best friend these days.
Jill Kennedy – OnMedea